Price Trend
According to the data of business associations, propylene market prices rose sharply in mid-September and fell sharply in the second half of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7596 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was a monthly low price of 7531 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.86%. This month’s high price appeared on September 17, 8004 yuan per ton, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%.
II. Analytical Review
Products: the price of propylene enterprises in September 1st was increased by 50~100 yuan / ton on the 2 day after the stabilization in September 1st, and only a few enterprises rose a little on the day of 6~8, and the price remained stable on the 6~8 day. The price on 9~10 day was down by 50 yuan / ton, and the price of some enterprises increased by 50 yuan / ton on the 11 day. The average daily price of 12~15 was generally stable. The price rose sharply in the middle of the month, and the price rose by 300/ and 18 days on the 16 and 17 days. Firm prices fell slightly from 19 to 22, flat on 23, slightly down on 24, stable on 25 and 26, and began to show a downward trend on 27. Today, they continue to decline by 200 to 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the market turnover is around 7450 to 7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7450 yuan/ton. Near the National Day holiday, due to logistics constraints, some upstream manufacturers have increased inventory pressure, there is a certain demand for warehousing.
Industry chain: upstream, the Saudi Arabian incident in mid-month led to a sharp jump in crude oil, most chemical products have followed up, propylene rose by 4.31% in two days. Later crude oil market slightly declined, relatively low, propylene support is weak. On the downstream side, affected by environmental protection, the downstream propylene plant load reduction, prudent purchasing, mainly just needed, weak demand side, propylene is not optimistic.
This month PP spot shocks steadily up, but the future market is not ideal. Although the production restriction order of polypropylene plant is expected to be implemented in many areas of China, the recent rework and commissioning of some factories have led to the increase of plant start-up rate in polypropylene enterprises and the expected supply of more negative prices. The upsurge of pre-festival stock-up in downstream factories has basically been completed. Recent purchases are more general and high-end prices are less traded. It is expected that the recent trend of PP will probably continue the trend of shock adjustment, and the positive effect on propylene is limited.
In September, the domestic propylene market rose steadily and declined at the end of the month. Cost support is weak, downstream demand is relatively light, more wait-and-see mentality, it is expected that the future market will be weak consolidation, propylene has a negative impact.
The trend of propylene oxide in September is similar to that of propylene. It began to decline in the latter half of the year, with a monthly decrease of 2.45% and a monthly amplitude of 7.01%, which has a favorable impact on propylene or air.
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After the fall of epichlorohydrin in September, it began to climb all the way, with a monthly increase of 11.94% and a higher monthly amplitude of 23.29%. It is expected that high-level finishing operation will dominate in the short term, which will have a positive impact on the price of propylene.
The monthly amplitude of n-butanol is less than 2%, which has little effect on propylene.
Octanol was stable in the first half of September and slightly declined after the second half of the month. Due to approaching the National Day holiday, environmental protection and transportation inspection are strict, cost support is weak, downstream market prices also decline, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is generally, and at present, the octanol inventory is low, tight delivery, high-end decline, low-end touches the whole controllable, it is expected that after the national day, the octanol market or shock rise, has a certain positive impact on propylene.
The isopropanol market rose steadily in mid-month in September, with a monthly increase of 13.08%. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by high consolidation, with limited benefits for propylene.
In September, the phenol Market in East China rose by a large margin of 16.28%, but the downstream inquiries were scarce, the terminal factories became weak, the National Day Holiday was approaching, there was no lack of delisting performance, the shipment of goods was not smooth, along with the market offer, the center of gravity was depressed by low prices, narrow decline, the transaction was relatively cold. It is expected that some traders in the phenol Market are eager to send goods at a low price, so the prices continue to fall. Olefin has little effect.
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In September, the acetone market in East China also rose by 28.62%, but at the end of the month, the market talks were cold and the offer was weak. Near the National Day holiday, the market trading atmosphere slowed down, the downstream terminal factories purchased few real offers, the holder’s offer range fluctuated, and the sentiment of shipment was strong, the real transaction was insufficient. It is expected that the acetone market will continue to be weak in the later period, and the volume of transactions will be limited, which has little impact on propylene.
3. Future Market Forecast
Propylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that in general, propylene declined after September. Upstream crude oil market downturn; approaching national day, logistics restrictions, refineries have a certain row demand; downstream environmental impact, manufacturers load reduction, procurement mainly based on demand, so it is expected that in the near future, Shandong propylene prices will still have downward.
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