Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2008 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 4.38%, 27.49% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market continued to decline this week, the mainland market fell 50-130 yuan/ton, the market trading atmosphere has not improved, downstream demand-based, traders are mostly empty sheet operations. Port trends are highly correlated with futures, with East and South China down 70-110 yuan/ton this week. On July 19, an explosion occurred at about 5.50 p.m. at the Yima Gasification Plant in Sanmenxia, Henan Province. The explosion resulted in 10 deaths, 5 loss of contact, 19 serious injuries and minor injuries to some people. Sanmenxia Yima Gasification Plant belongs to Henan Gas Group. At 10 o’clock on July 20, MTO methanol was produced in Zhongan combined methanol synthesis plant. The test run of coal chemical plant opened up the process of methanol production from coal, creating favorable conditions for subsequent olefin plant test run.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde Market as a whole is running lower. The upstream methanol market continued to decline this week, many markets have fallen to new historical lows, the cost is difficult to support the formaldehyde market, coupled with environmental impact, the formaldehyde market started unstable, the overall start-up reduced, the downstream market is a large area of shutdown, the overall turnover is light, formaldehyde enterprise inventory pressure increased, most enterprises reported. Set down. Acetic acid: The malfunction of Yima plant in Henan Province has given rise to a soaring market mentality. Traders actively stock up, and near the end of the month, mainstream production enterprises stock up and deliver export orders. Overlapping for a good time has promoted the transaction price of acetic acid market to keep rising. The low price in the early period of Shaanxi Province has increased by 550 yuan/ton in only three days under the favorable support. Ships and cargo in South China market are delayed due to weather. Spot shortage in Central China and a small supply of automobiles have led to a situation in which the market has no market value. In the mid-week period, after a series of rises, the downstream industry acetate cost pressures are greater. Some manufacturers offer to ease the downstream cost pressures temporarily, and the market rally is dispersed. On the 25th, the unit of Tianjin Alkali Plant was reduced to 50% operation for 2 weeks. The supply of goods in North China market has intensified, and the market has continued to rise in stages. Dimethyl ether: This week, the supply situation of dimethyl ether Market is unbalanced and there is a gap in market demand. With this support, prices have risen sharply and grass-roots procurement has been actively carried out. After entering Thursday, the trading situation showed signs of stabilization and prices were consolidated horizontally. This week, the starting rate of domestic dimethyl ether enterprises was only 19.00%, which was 3.05% lower than that of last week and 13.83% lower than that of last week. Dimethyl ether in Henan production area was affected by the “gasification plant” incident, and the overall start-up was insufficient. At present, the start-up enterprises only have heart-to-heart, Hebi BMW, Zhumadian.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the war risk from Iran to China is increasing and the shipping cost is increasing; the MTO trial production of Nanjing Chengzhi Phase II is at the end of June; Shandong Luxi MTO is expected to test run at the end of July; Ningxia Baofeng plans to start production in early August; and the profit of products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether and MTO has improved significantly due to the continued low price of methanol. On the negative side, some domestic MTO enterprises that need to purchase methanol have maintenance plans, such as Jiangsu Shenghong, Shenhua Yulin and other enterprises. New domestic methanol plants are being constructed in an orderly way, including Yankuang Yulin 700,000 tons planned to go into operation in October; Inner Mongolia Rongxin expected to go into operation in September; affected by safety and environmental protection inspection, local market terminal enterprises stopped, affecting methanol consumption; the overall start of methanol in China maintained a high level, with imports estimated to be around 850,000 tons in August. The market is well supplied. The current situation of excessive supply and demand of methanol is the main reason for the continuous decline of the market and approaching the methanol production line. The continuous stringent national environmental protection and safety supervision is the main reason for the reduction of traditional downstream demand. With the approaching of the 70th anniversary of the National Day, environmental protection and safety supervision is not likely to relax; therefore, attention should be paid to the supply side. Whether there is a reduction or a change in trade sentiment is the cause of the reversal of the situation, focusing on the start-up of methanol production from natural gas and methanol production from coal. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by low consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price trend of domestic TDI market fell this week, with the average market price in eastern China at the beginning of the week at about 14,000.00 yuan/ton, and the average market price in eastern China at the weekend at about 13,733.33 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.90% in the week and a 54.68% year-on-year decline.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the TDI market in East China has been reorganized and operated. The price trend has declined, and the atmosphere inside the venue has increased slightly. However, the following-up is still in a downturn. There are divergent mentalities among the operators and coexistence of high and low quotations. As of the 26th, China’s domestic goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13500-13700 yuan/ton, Shanghai goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13700-13900 yuan/ton, a single talk, the actual negotiations.

Industry chain: The price trend of nitric acid in the upstream is stable, and the market price is about 1756.67 yuan/ton in a week, which is stable; the mainstream quotation of nitric acid in Jiangsu is 1720 yuan/ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable, and the demand of nitric acid market is still acceptable. The quotation of the manufacturer is basically stable, and the quotation of individual manufacturer is somewhat loose. The nitric acid shipment situation is general. This week, toluene market price shocks downward, affected by rising port inventory and weak downstream demand, toluene market prices this week slightly rebounded, the current mainstream price in East China is around 5450-5480 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.57% in the week.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the analysis of business societies data analysts: the domestic TDI market range shocks, on-site business mindset divergence, high and low quotations exist, with the announcement of BASF listing, the overall market atmosphere boosted. It is expected that it will be consolidated steadily and upward in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the trend of zinc price in 2019 rose first and then decreased. In the first quarter, the price of zinc rose sharply, and began to reverse downward in early April. At the beginning of the year, the domestic and foreign zinc prices were about 22,000 yuan/ton, rising all the way, rebounding to about 23,000 yuan/ton in early April, and then declined to 19,300 yuan/ton in July. Zinc prices in and out of the first half of the year showed an inverted “V” trend. As of July 24, the price of zinc was 19556.67 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from the lowest price of 19326.67 yuan/ton in the year, down 16.71% from the highest price in the year, down 11.75% from the beginning of the year, and down 10.65% from the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

data statistics

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global supply gap of zinc in January-May 2019 was 47,000 tons, while that in the whole year of 2018 was 67,000 tons. Global refined zinc production declined by 2.8% year on year, while consumption increased by 3.5% year on year. Global demand increased by 186,000 tons from January to May 2018. China’s apparent demand is 2.552 million tons, accounting for 47% of the global total.

According to a report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global zinc supply gap narrowed to 27,200 tons in May and was revised to a shortage of 87,500 tons in April. In the first five months of this year, the global supply shortage of zinc increased to 123,000 tons, compared with 103,000 tons in the same period last year.

Data show that the global zinc supply shortage in 2019. Zinc prices rose sharply in the first quarter, which is in line with the performance of zinc supply shortage. With the increase of zinc supply and the weakening of zinc demand, the price of zinc has fallen.

Import and export data

According to the latest data released by China Customs, the import volume of 0# zinc ingot in May 2019 was 368,000 tons, a decrease of about 44.5% annually and a decrease of about 32.0% year on year. In May, China imported about 12,964 tons of 0_zinc ingots from Australia, a decrease of about 24.9% in ring-to-ring ratio; imported about 8,284 tons of 0 zinc ingots from Kazakhstan, a decrease of about 24.0% in ring-to-ring ratio; imported 0 zinc ingots from Belgium, a flat ring ratio; imported about 301 tons of 0 zinc ingots from Spain, a significant decrease of about 98.6%. China’s zinc ingot imports fell sharply, reflecting weak demand in the domestic zinc market. The quantity of imported zinc ingot decreases, and the supply of zinc ingot is relatively affected.

Domestic Zinc Production

In 2019, the production of zinc increased month by month, and the domestic zinc production increased significantly. The supply of zinc in China was gradually turned from insufficient supply to excess supply. Future zinc prices are not optimistic.

High zinc processing cost

In 2019, the zinc processing fee is obviously on the high side, stimulating zinc smelting enterprises to increase start-up, increasing zinc production supply may increase, and the risk of excess supply in the future will increase.

Downstream demand

According to the statistics bureau, GDP grew by 6.3% in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, investment in real estate development in China increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last year, and increased by 11.2% from January to May. The steady growth of real estate and fixed investment has a certain positive impact on the demand for zinc ingots, but the decline in land transaction area and the small drop in the sales area of commercial housing show that the real estate market is not good, and the future real estate market is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, real estate demand for zinc is expected to decline, and zinc market in the future is negative.

In the automotive sector, the global automotive market is weak and sales have fallen sharply. Although there are various policies to stimulate automotive consumption, the effect is not obvious. Future automotive consumption is bearish, and the demand for zinc in the automotive industry has declined significantly.

As for household appliances, air-conditioning output increased significantly in the first five months of this year, but since the second quarter, rainwater in the whole country has been more than in previous years, hot weather has been pushed back, and air-conditioning sales have fallen short of expectations. Since April, domestic air-conditioning inventory has been at a high level, which limits the later production scheduling space. It is expected that the seasonal weakening of air conditioning production will be very significant after July. The output of refrigerators and washing machines is mainly stable and the increment is limited. The demand for zinc in the future household appliances market is bound to drop dramatically, affecting the rebound of zinc market.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business associations, the output of domestic zinc market is increasing month by month in 2019. In the first quarter, the zinc market is still in a state of supply shortage. However, with the increase of zinc production month by month, the zinc shortage gap decreases, and the zinc market is gradually changing from short supply to over demand. On the supply side, high zinc processing fees stimulate zinc smelting enterprises to expand production capacity, and zinc production in the future or further increase; on the demand side, automobile consumption is weak, and the demand for household appliances is declining in the future, the demand for zinc in the future is declining seriously, and the performance of the real estate market is still acceptable for half a year, but in the second half of the year, the real estate market is expected to decline. Slip has a negative impact on zinc demand. Generally speaking, the domestic zinc market shows a gradual increase in supply and demand, which gradually changes from short supply to oversupply. The demand of future zinc market is expected to decline, and the state of oversupply in zinc market will not improve in the short term. In the future, the price of zinc is expected to continue to oscillate and fall, and the rising period of zinc price is uncertain.

I. Acrylic acid price trend:

According to the data of business associations, the average price of acrylic acid as of July 23 was 7483.33 yuan/ton. The market of acrylic acid was mainly stable, and the quotation of acrylic acid in some areas was slightly reduced. At present, the mainstream quotation of acrylic acid in China is about 7450-7500 yuan/ton, which is 1.54% lower than last Tuesday (July 16).

II. Market analysis:

Product: Acrylic acid market price slightly lower. The overall downstream start-up load is low, and the market is cautious and wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, the price of acrylic acid in Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily stable. The price of acrylic acid in Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 7450 yuan/ton of propionic acid and 8450 yuan/ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is realistic. The price of acrylic acid in Wanhua Chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. remains stable, with the main supply contract and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7500 yuan/ton

Industry chain: The market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continues to rise slightly. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province rose in early July, experiencing two rounds of increase of about 600 yuan/ton. Since the 13th day, the price has gone down, totaling about 650 yuan/ton by the 19th day. After the two-day weekend stabilization, it began to rise on Monday, rising again by about 50 yuan/ton on the 23rd. At present, the market turnover is around 7700-7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on July 23, 2019, there were 14 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical industry sector. The top three commodities were acetic acid (4.76%), polymerized MDI (2.83%) and acetone (2.54%). There are 12 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-26.92%), trichloromethane (-3.45%) and DOP (-2.88%). The 23-day average rise and fall was -0.24%.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the short-term domestic acrylic acid market may be dominated by stable operation.

Price trends:

According to business data monitoring, acetic anhydride prices continued to rise in early July this week. As of July 21, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 5316.67 yuan/ton, which was 2.57% higher than that quoted by acetic anhydride earlier this week, and 28.27% lower than that of acetic anhydride in the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, the domestic acetic anhydride factory quotation rose, and the market transaction price was temporarily stable. As of July 21, most of the region’s ex-factory quotations were between 5100 and 5500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price rose. The actual transaction price in Shandong was around 5100 yuan/ton. The price rose. The market quotation was the reference price. The actual transaction price was subject to actual negotiation. Acetate anhydride manufacturers equipment start-up rate is low to maintain, manufacturers have limited inventory, downstream customers are cautious in picking up goods, acetic anhydride downstream sales situation is general, acetic anhydride rising momentum in the future is general.

Factor analysis of industrial chain:

At about 17:00 on July 19, an explosion occurred in Henan Yima Gasification Plant, which has an annual capacity of 240,000 tons of methanol and 200,000 tons of acetic acid. Although there is no specific loss data caused by the explosion, the company’s acetic acid inventory is limited, which has little impact on the current supply of acetic acid. However, the explosion will inevitably lead to the increase of safety inspection, which will have an impact on the supply of acetic acid in the future, and lead to the rise of acetic acid market. At the same time, the chain reaction will lead to the rise of acetic anhydride downstream, or trigger a short-term industrial chain rise peak.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business associations, believes that the price of acetic anhydride raw materials has risen slightly recently, the price of methanol has remained stable, the cost of acetic anhydride has risen, and the price of acetic anhydride has a driving force. Although the explosion of acetic acid factory last Friday has limited impact on the supply of acetic acid at this stage, the explosion will inevitably lead to further intensification of national safety inspection and affect the production of future enterprises. It will be difficult for the acetic acid and methanol equipment of Henan Yima Gasification Plant to produce normally for a considerable period of time in the future, affecting the supply of products. As a result of the rising price of products, and the rising voice at this stage, it is unavoidable that some enterprises speculate on acetic acid and methanol, which leads to further price rises. Because of the characteristics of acetic anhydride products, the output of acetic anhydride is small and the use of acetic anhydride is wide. The price of raw materials has a great influence on the price of acetic anhydride. The price of acetic anhydride has risen sharply, or the price of acetic anhydride has been detonated, which leads to a sharp rise in the price of acetic anhydride