1. Nickel Spot Trend
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on September 17 was 135766.67 yuan/ton, which was 2.99% lower than 139950 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 4.73% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 51.68% higher than that at the beginning of the year and 27.80% higher than that at the beginning of the year. Nickel prices have risen from September 3 to the highest price in nearly seven years, approaching the 150,000 mark, and are now mainly retraced.
LME nickel inventory increased by 6.6%.
As of September 13, LME nickel stocks increased by 6.6% to 166680 tons, the largest increase since June. LME nickel stocks fell slightly from 2406 tons to 164274 tons on the 16th.
2. LME Nickel Inventory Trend Chart in Past Years
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As can be seen from the chart above, when LME nickel stocks were at a low level of 150,000, nickel prices rose relatively high. Now LME nickel stocks are rising and nickel prices are falling. But nickel stocks are still at a low level of 160,000.
Indonesia Prohibits Mining and Philippines Develops New Domestic Mines
Earlier, the Indonesian government announced a ban on nickel exports, which shocked the global nickel market. As the second largest nickel producer in the world after Indonesia, the Philippines can be said to want to seize this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to develop new domestic mines, increase production and raise domestic nickel prices. It is expected that Philippine nickel miners will increase their ore production when the new mining season begins in April next year. Nickel production in the Philippines is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5% over the next 10 years.
But at the same time, doubts arose. The Philippine Nickel Association (PNIA) said that it was still open to question whether the Philippine nickel industry could act as expected because of the stringent and uncertain mining policies in the Philippines.
3. Small adjustment of downstream stainless steel price
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As of September 17, the daily average price of 304/2B stainless steel plate 1.0*1219*2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 14107.14 yuan/ton (including tax), which was flat compared with the previous trading day and slightly increased by 4.3% compared with the beginning of the year.
Stainless steel high output but limited terminal demand
In August, the initial value of stainless steel production in China was 260.2 million tons high, and some steel factories responded well to orders received in August. Stainless steel mills are still profitable, and high output of steel mills will increase the demand for nickel metals. With the high production of stainless steel, the inventory of stainless steel has reached a historical high, but the terminal consumption performance is weak.
Indonesia’s Ban on Mines has come to an end and Nickel Price has returned to the fundamentals
To sum up, Nickel analyst Liu Meimei of the Business Association believes that the dust of Indonesia’s mining ban has settled, bullish sentiment has eased, with the increase of LME nickel inventory, nickel prices have slightly retraced. Overall, however, the high output of stainless steel downstream supports nickel prices. Plus, there is still a shortage of nickel in the nickel mine. The golden nine peak season comes quietly, or has some support for nickel. It is expected that the price of nickel in September will have no other news, basically in a high volatility trend.
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