According to the analysis system monitoring of Business Society, it can be seen that polyethylene will show a relatively strong trend of oscillation in 2024, with high-pressure products experiencing a large increase, followed by linear products, and low-pressure products showing a relatively weak trend. There were two sustained increases throughout the year, the first in April and the second in October. In 2024, LDPE increased by 16.16%, LLDPE increased by 8.31%, and HDPE increased by 1.03%.

Take a rough look at the rising stage in 2024

The first price increase: from April to June. In the second quarter, the petrochemical equipment is in a period of centralized maintenance, with an overall decrease in load and an expected reduction in polyethylene supply. The supply pressure is not high, and the supply-demand situation has improved; In addition, with favorable macro policies and the strengthening of plastic futures, prices continue to rise.

Second Rise: October December: The overall trend of polyethylene in October was strong, with a significant increase occurring after the National Day holiday. Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil market rose, and after the holiday, the polyethylene market was boosted by favorable conditions, resulting in a significant price increase. The demand for agricultural film in October has entered the peak season, and there are positive expectations from the consumer side. On the supply side, there has been an increase in maintenance equipment, and there has been a general delay in the production of new planned equipment. The operation of new production capacity is not smooth, resulting in a reduction in supply. Inventory remains at a low level, especially for linear products with tight supply sources. The supply pressure is not significant, and prices remain strong. Positive domestic policies have been released, and the market sentiment is good, providing support for the polyethylene market.

Forecast for 2025

Capacity: In recent years, the domestic polyethylene production capacity has maintained a growth trend. The 23.46 million tons in 2020 increased to 35.71 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 10.18%. It is expected that 7.43 million tons of polyethylene will be put into production in 2025. The production capacity in the first quarter is relatively concentrated, with about 3.03 million tons of polyethylene plants planned to be put into operation. The production capacity is still in a high-speed growth stage.

Production: The expected polyethylene production in 2024 is 27.914 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.57%, due to an increase in equipment maintenance losses. The production forecast for the first quarter of 2025 is expected to be between 2.42-2.48 million tons of polyethylene due to the gradual restart of equipment maintenance and inspection in January, as well as the gradual increase in new production capacity. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February and the temporary parking of the equipment, it is expected to be between 2.3 and 2.4 million tons. In March, with the recovery of downstream demand, it is expected to be between 2.4-2.5 million tons.

Maintenance losses: The maintenance losses of polyethylene plants will significantly increase in 2024, with an estimated loss of 4.7334 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.93%, setting a new historical high. It is expected that there will be fewer maintenance facilities in the first quarter of 2025, with a production capacity of only 1.69 million tons.

Import volume: From January to November 2024, the total import volume of PE was 12.5806 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.51%. Among them, the import quantity of LDPE was 2.648 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%; The import quantity of LLDPE was 4.7518 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.04% year-on-year; The import quantity of HDPE was 5.1745 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.05%. The increase in domestic production of LDPE and LLDPE has led to a decrease in some imports, while the increase in HDPE imports is mainly due to a decrease in domestic production.

Export volume: From January to November 2024, the total export volume of PE was 763600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%. Among them, the export volume of LDPE was 227200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.46%; The export volume of LLDPE was 157600 tons, with a growth rate of 9.98%; The export volume of HDPE decreased by 36700 tons, a decrease of 8.84%.

Apparent consumption: As of November 2024, the total apparent consumption of PE in China was 37.1155 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.20%. Among them, the apparent consumption of LDPE has slightly decreased, with an apparent consumption of 5.2765 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.24%. Due to the significant increase in domestic LDPE prices compared to LLDPE and HDPE in 2024, the price difference with LLDPE has widened, and the apparent consumption of LDPE has slightly decreased.

PE downstream operating rate: In 2024, the comprehensive operating rate of polyethylene downstream remained below 50% for a long time, and the overall operating load was lower than in previous years. In December, the downstream plastic production rate in China was 44%, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film was 38%, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the previous period. The overall operating rate is expected to decline by around 6 percentage points in January 2025.

On the cost side: In 2024, under the influence of geopolitical, macro, and supply and demand fundamentals, international crude oil will emerge from a trend of rising and falling, gradually fluctuating and narrowing, and oil prices will gradually return to fundamentals. The supply-demand balance in 2025 will transition from a tight equilibrium state to a balanced state, and major institutions are relatively pessimistic and conservative about oil prices in 2025. Therefore, the upward range of oil prices will be suppressed.

Market forecast: PE production capacity will still be in a high-speed growth stage by 2025, coupled with the delay in the new production of polyethylene plants in December 2024. With the gradual increase in production capacity, there will be greater pressure on the supply side; The downstream demand growth rate will be lower than the supply growth rate, and the expected intensification of the supply-demand game. The main production of new devices is concentrated in the first half of the year, with significant pressure on the supply side. The demand for PE in 2025 still faces challenges, and attention needs to be paid to the issuance and implementation of domestic macro stimulus policies as well as the overseas economic situation. It is expected that the market will weaken in the first half of the year and may rebound in the second half.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1559.6 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the end of the week was 1554.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% in price and a decrease of 39.08% compared to the same period last year. On January 19th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 103.15, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.26% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.86% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1850 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1494 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week (1.11-1.17), the dichloromethane market is running weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 17th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2675 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.39%; On January 14th, the average price reached a low point of 2662 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 7.25% from the 11th.

As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand has significantly weakened, on-site operating load has increased, and enterprise inventory is under significant pressure. Production enterprises are offering discounts for sales, resulting in a wide range of price reductions. Downstream order taking enthusiasm has increased, but due to the reduction of logistics vehicles, enterprise outbound has slowed down, which may pose an upward resistance to dichloromethane. On January 17th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2640-2680 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The starting load this week remains stable compared to last week. The following is the operation status of the enterprise’s methane chloride unit:

Cost wise: As the end of the year approaches, shipments of methanol and liquid chlorine are under pressure. The liquid chlorine market is declining, and the methanol market is fluctuating and weakening. On January 16th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% from the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Due to factors such as low production in various industries before the Spring Festival and holiday arrangements, the demand for procurement has weakened. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the tight supply of goods supports the firm operation of prices, waiting for resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival.

Business analysts believe that the cost situation is weak, the demand side has reduced production, and the supply side inventory is under pressure. It is expected that the short-term market for dichloromethane will be limited.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the price of lead 1 # was 16590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the lead price of 16810 yuan/ton on January 1st.

This week’s market analysis

Due to the early stocking at the end of last month, which squeezed the demand for January, it was difficult for terminal demand to be transmitted upwards. The weakening of downstream demand will make it difficult for lead prices to maintain high levels, resulting in an overall downward trend in lead prices in the first half of this month.

Native end

The expansion of raw material procurement channels for primary lead refineries has not led to a strong willingness to increase quotations. Under the influence of significantly improved raw material inventory and the pursuit of comprehensive recycling profits, production constraints have weakened. However, there are still maintenance during the Spring Festival, and monthly supply has decreased compared to the previous period.

Regeneration end

The supply gap of used batteries has existed for a long time, coupled with the low number of scrapped batteries in winter and the increased demand for inventory in recycled lead refineries during the Spring Festival, prices are expected to stabilize. The impact of winter on production in the north, shrinking profits, some refineries undergoing Spring Festival maintenance, and environmental disturbances still pose uncertainties, resulting in a significant month on month decrease in the production of recycled lead.

Demand side

The consumption of lead-acid batteries has recovered to some extent, but dealers have stocked up due to the previous drop in lead prices. Moreover, this winter is relatively warm, and the improvement in stocking demand before the Spring Festival may be limited. There is a possibility of seasonal decline in the operating rate of enterprises in the second half of the month. However, based on recent policy statements, the continuation of the trade in policy and the expansion of subsidies are expected to improve the consumption of lead-acid batteries in the medium to long term.

comprehensive analysis

As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an increase in maintenance of primary and recycled lead refineries, while the environmental interference rate is relatively high, resulting in reduced pressure on the supply side. The demand for lead-acid battery companies has fallen seasonally, but the expectation of stocking up before the Spring Festival provides some support. Both supply and demand are weak, and the trend of lead prices is not driven enough. It is expected that the low-level range of lead prices will mainly fluctuate in January.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On January 16th, the average market price was 7511.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market continues to strengthen and consolidate. The significant decrease in the number of arrivals at ports in East China has boosted the market, leading to an increase in the price of pure benzene. The prices in Shandong’s local refining market have fluctuated, with most enterprises focusing on stability. International crude oil futures have risen, and the price of pure benzene in foreign markets has increased. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is good. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.