The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and rose in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the price of plasticizer DOTP was 10250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.67% compared to the DOTP price of 9887.50 yuan/ton on May 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride has risen, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, the cost of plasticizer has increased, the profit of plasticizer DOTP has decreased, the production of plasticizer DOTP enterprises has decreased, and the supply of plasticizer DOTP has decreased.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9950 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% compared to the quotation of 9660 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of isooctanol was at the bottom of the market, and there was limited room for its decline. Since the domestic isooctanol market hit bottom in mid April, the price center of isooctanol has slowly shifted upwards. From the demand side, the rotating maintenance of downstream plasticizers and isooctyl acrylate units in May resulted in low continuity of buying, and the fluctuation range of isooctyl alcohol narrowed. The market for isooctanol lacks continuous upward momentum, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated slightly.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased in May

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 6.06% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 7720 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho benzene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In the middle and late stages, the phthalic anhydride plant underwent centralized maintenance, and its daily production capacity utilization rate has dropped to 59%. The supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, supporting the rise in phthalic anhydride prices and the cost of plasticizer DOTP has increased.

In May, the PTA price of raw materials first fell and then rose

According to the PTA commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 29th, The PTA quotation is 5972 yuan/ton, which is a decrease followed by an increase of 0.53% compared to the PTA price of 5940.50 yuan/ton on May 1st; The PTA price fluctuated and increased by 2.89% compared to 5804 yuan/ton on May 14th. PTA manufacturers have a lot of maintenance, PTA supply has decreased; Raw materials are released, and PX manufacturers in the international market have frequent short stops, PX supply is tightening, with significant support from rising raw material prices, PTA cost support, PTA gains provide significant support.

Expected decrease in downstream demand

Affected by the increase in planned maintenance enterprises, The production of PVC has decreased. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises is around 50%, a decrease compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Short term fundamental supply has decreased due to maintenance, and domestic and international demand remains weak, especially in the export market, making it more difficult to accept orders, The supply and demand of PVC market are weak; In the medium to long term, The policy stimulus in the PVC market to reduce inventory and quantify inventory is difficult to bring benefits to new construction projects. The real estate market has boosted demand for building materials, and the spot fundamentals are cautious and cautious. There is not much planned maintenance in June, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation, resulting in increased supply and poor demand performance, which has a certain drag on the market. The supply and demand in foreign markets are weak due to maintenance and off-season constraints. Overall, The supply and demand of PVC and downstream markets are weak, and the support for plasticizer demand remains weak.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the production of plasticizer DOTP manufacturers has decreased, and upstream isooctanol manufacturers and downstream PVC product enterprises have experienced varying degrees of maintenance and production decline. The overall supply of plasticizer sector is tight; Downstream production has decreased, and downstream demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. In the future, with the completion of enterprise maintenance and the double increase of supply and demand, the supply of plasticizers is sufficient and the demand is recovering; The rise in raw material prices has slowed down, and the support for the increase in plasticizer costs has weakened; Downstream demand support is increasing, and the price of plasticizer DOTP will consolidate strongly in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has weakened, and spot prices have often fallen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11300 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.29% compared to May 1st.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has recently shifted from rising to falling, with an average supply side load of around 69% for domestic EVA enterprises. The market supply is abundant, and under supply pressure, petrochemical plants dynamically adjust their load. The manufacturer’s information is insufficient, and the pricing has been lowered. Overall, the EVA supplier’s support for spot goods is average.

From the demand side perspective, recent EVA terminal enterprises have seen significant stability in production, with weak stocking conditions and a strong demand for purchasing. Traditional downstream industries such as foam shoe materials and cables are gradually entering the off-season market, with few new orders. The consumption level of photovoltaic materials has limited changes, and the increase in stocking is not significant. The negative atmosphere in the market remains, and actual trading is cautious. Merchants have a negative attitude and actively offer discounts and take orders. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have been operating weakly recently. The market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate has not changed much, and the support for the EVA market is relatively weak. The industry load has fluctuated and adjusted, with factory prices of petrochemical plants falling and supplier support declining. The overall development of the demand side is poor, dragging market momentum. It is expected that the spot price of EVA will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of May 24, 2024, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has declined. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 68000 to 69000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

According to Business Society, on May 24th, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate was 105400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.77% compared to the beginning of this month (108400.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, although the raw material lithium carbonate has declined, the cost side is still under pressure. Downstream electrolyte enterprises have weak demand, and overall market demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the lithium hexafluorophosphate market will be weak in the near future, and more information still needs to be paid attention to the raw material market.

This week (5.20-5.24), the domestic ethyl acetate market showed weak performance and prices continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 24th, the price of ethyl acetate fell from 6326.67 yuan/ton to 6290.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%, with a cumulative range of 40-50 yuan/ton. The main reason for the bearish performance of cost demand.

Market analysis: The supply and demand of ethyl acetate market continued to be sluggish this week. The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side is high, and the supply side is under pressure for shipments. Shandong’s main factories are offering discounts for shipments, resulting in a decrease in bidding prices; In terms of demand, terminal consumption is slow, with downstream buyers mainly seeking low prices and resisting high priced sources. The demand side continues to be bearish. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid continues to decline, and cost support is weak. It may continue to spread to the terminal in the later stage, affecting the downward trend of downstream ethyl ester.

In the future, with weak supply and demand of ethyl acetate and difficulty in improving short-term fundamentals, it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6200-6370 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 4975.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% and a month on month increase of 2.77%. The current price has dropped by 3.77% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and consolidating, and it can be seen from the above chart that there has been a slight increase in the recent potassium nitrate market. There have been no new orders signed for potassium chloride border trade, and the domestic potassium chloride market remains strong at a high level with strong cost support. Potassium nitrate manufacturers are shipping normally, with slight fluctuations in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4700-4800 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

This week, the domestic potassium chloride market experienced high volatility. As of this weekend, potassium chloride has been offered at 2516 yuan/ton. The domestic potassium chloride market continues its previous consolidation trend, with a calm market performance. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the moderate arrival volume this month and the basic balance between supply and demand in the domestic market, there has been no surplus situation in the market, and the price remains rigid and strong. However, downstream factories generally have a resistance mentality towards high prices, and the current market is in a weak season. Most enterprises have replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has remained strong at a high level, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers across the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts from Business Society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.).