1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash was weak in February. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2580 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2190 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 15.12%, a decrease of 20.94% compared to the same period last year. On February 27th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 112.82, a decrease of 2.05 points from yesterday, a decrease of 40.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 78.65% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has been weak this month. This menstrual period is during the Spring Festival holiday, but the main focus is on replenishing inventory in the downstream. The prices of soda ash in the North China region are consolidating, with the mainstream market for light soda ash around 2100-2300 yuan/ton, the mainstream market for light soda ash in the East China region around 2100-2400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market for light soda ash in the Central China region around 2000-2200 yuan/ton. The device has been stable recently and there are currently no maintenance expectations.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of glass is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 22.27 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 21.99 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price decreased by 1.26%. From a regional perspective, the glass spot market in Shahe, North China is still in good condition, with flexible trading on the market and acceptable manufacturer shipments. The market trading situation in the East China region is average, and downstream demand for goods is high. The overall production and sales in Central China are average, but due to road transportation reasons, the market is relatively light. The production and sales situation of glass in South China is average, and the middle and downstream markets have just recovered, with a focus on restocking in demand. The overall consolidation of glass prices this month is the main trend.

Business Society analysts believe that according to the Business Society commodity analysis system, the price of soda ash is fluctuating. Recently, the production of caustic soda has been relatively stable, and manufacturers have no maintenance plans. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, without any positive support. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will fluctuate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The price of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 26th, the price of DOP was 11770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the price of 11820 yuan/ton on February 19th last week; The price has increased by 0.51% compared to February 23rd at 11710 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has stopped falling and risen, while the cost of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen; After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed operations, and the supply of plasticizer DOP increased.

This week, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the price of isooctanol was 12437.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on February 19th last week, which was 12425 yuan/ton; Compared to last weekend, the price of 12400 yuan/ton has stopped falling and increased by 0.30%. After the holiday, the slow recovery of isooctanol, coupled with the slow increase in downstream customer production, has led to a rebound in demand for isooctanol, and the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen.

PVC prices fluctuate and rise after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the PVC quotation was 5592 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.47% compared to the PVC quotation of 5566 yuan/ton on February 19th last week. After the holiday, the PVC market rebounded, PVC prices fluctuated and rose, and the demand for plasticizers rebounded.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that after the holiday, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling; The PVC market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded. In the future, the cost of plasticizers has stopped falling and risen, downstream demand has rebounded, and it is expected that DOP prices will rise in the future.

After the holiday, the price of plasticizer DBP is weak and consolidating

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 19th, the DBP price was 9775 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the DBP price of 9775 yuan/ton on February 9th before the holiday. The raw material n-butanol has experienced strong consolidation, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. DBP costs have also increased. After the holiday, DBP enterprises have resumed production, DBP supply has increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. DBP prices are weak and consolidating.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 19th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12450 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.81% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on February 9th before the holiday, which was 12350 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of 12375 yuan/ton increased by 0.61%. During the Spring Festival, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, but there was some recovery after the holiday. In addition, downstream customers restocked, and the demand for isooctanol slowly rebounded. During the Spring Festival, the price of isooctanol remained high, and after the holiday, the price of isooctanol slightly increased.

High level consolidation of n-butanol prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 19th, the price of n-butanol was 8733.33 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of n-butanol on February 9th before the holiday, which was 8733.33 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of n-butanol decreased by 0.95% at 8816.67 yuan/ton. Low inventory of n-butanol enterprises, high consolidation of n-butanol prices; DBP cost support still exists.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: n-butanol is consolidating at a high level, isooctanol prices are fluctuating and rising, and DBP raw material costs are supporting; After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed production and DBP supply increased. In the future, cost support still exists, and the supply of plasticizer DBP increases. It is expected that DBP prices will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

After the holiday, the price of acetic anhydride fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 18th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the price of 5875 yuan/ton on February 9th before the holiday, and a decrease of 1.06% compared to the price of 5912.50 yuan/ton on January 31st last month. Weak demand has led to a decline in the price of acetic anhydride. During the Spring Festival, some acetic anhydride enterprises experienced equipment shutdowns, and after the holiday, acetic anhydride equipment resumed operation, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride prices.

After the holiday, the price of acetic acid is weak and temporarily stable

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of February 18th, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of acetic acid on February 9th before the holiday; The price of acetic acid is temporarily stable at 3300 yuan/ton compared to February 1st at the beginning of the month. During the Spring Festival, some acetic acid manufacturers experienced equipment shutdowns or reduced loads, resulting in a tightening of acetic acid supply. After the holiday, acetic acid manufacturers resumed operations, with sufficient acetic acid supply and weak and temporarily stable acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, some acetic anhydride manufacturers shut down during the Spring Festival, and after the holiday, acetic anhydride enterprises resumed operations, resulting in an increase in acetic anhydride supply; In addition, the demand for acetic anhydride remains weak, and the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be weakened and lowered in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China have been running steadily since February. On February 7th, the average market price in East China was 17000 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 17000 yuan/ton on February 1st, with a month on month increase of 1.80%.

Recently, the domestic TDI market has remained stable and we are observing. Multiple sets of TDI devices in the factory have reduced their load, with slow spot filling and a focus on supporting the market. The trading market follows suit and actively ships, but the downstream pre holiday stocking atmosphere is average, procurement enthusiasm is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Traders are conflicted, and TDI quotations are operating steadily.

The upstream toluene market has slightly decreased. On February 7th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44% from the price of 6880 yuan/ton on February 1st. The inventory of toluene at the port has increased and the production has slightly increased. The pressure on the supply side of toluene is still present, and the downstream demand in the off-season is weak, resulting in insufficient support for toluene. Under the influence of weak supply and demand and cost, the toluene market is weak and consolidating.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that domestic TDI spot filling is slow, factory news is quiet, and the trading market mentality is cautious. Holders offer steadily, and downstream markets are gradually entering a state of vacation. The trading atmosphere on the market is light, and it is expected that the short-term TDI market will operate on a wait-and-see basis. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream restocking after the holiday and the release of news from the supplier market.