441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained strong and upward. As of December 25th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15620 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36% compared to the previous week. In recent times, silicon metal production has decreased and silicon factories have started to rise strongly. Driven by the demand for essential purchases, spot prices have overall risen.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 25th is as follows:

The price range for # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15600-15700 yuan/ton, with an average of 15650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 16100-16300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16200 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of December 21st, the number of furnaces opened this week was 356, a decrease of 8 compared to last week, a decrease of 4 in Yunnan, and a decrease of 3 in Sichuan. The operating rate in the southwest region continues to decline, and silicon factories are reducing production and reluctant to sell, leading to a high sentiment of price support. Due to weather and environmental factors, many areas in the northern region have experienced production restrictions.

In terms of inventory:

As of December 22, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 363000 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 125000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. The social delivery warehouse was 238000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which decreased by 7000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market remained stable, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55000-65000 yuan/ton. The devices affected by the accident in the early stage have now resumed operation, and the newly added production capacity has been gradually released, achieving mass production and a significant increase in domestic supply. Downstream installation demand is decreasing, and the demand increment in the silicon material market is insufficient in the near future. Prices may still seek downward space in the upstream and downstream game.

The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 13920 yuan/ton, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has slightly decreased during the week, but the market situation is improving. Aluminum alloy factories are actively purchasing, and inquiries and orders are increasing.

Future Market Forecast

This week, silicon factories continue to reduce production, with seasonal cuts in production in the southwest. Xinjiang silicon factories have reduced production due to environmental protection, leading to increased uncertainty in the supply side. At the same time, downstream demand remains for essential procurement, and it is expected that silicon prices will slightly increase in the short term.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On December 22nd, the average sulfur price in East China was 1090.00 yuan/ton, a 1.51% decrease from the previous working day’s price of 1106.67 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The sulfur market in East China is experiencing a downward trend, with sulfur refinery units operating normally and market supply stable. The demand for terminal winter storage is slowing down, and downstream procurement is stabilizing. Market trading is mainly based on demand, while refineries are actively shipping. Some companies have poor shipments, and their prices have been lowered based on their own inventory situation.

Market forecast: The supply side follows the market, downstream demand remains stable, and the market lacks effective positive support. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and fluctuate narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 21st, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.26% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has experienced a downward trend within a certain range, with mainstream quotes from enterprises ranging from 3000 to 3500 yuan/ton. Recently, the upstream sulfuric acid market has stabilized, while the upstream methanol market has risen narrowly, with increased cost support. Downstream inquiries and purchases are generally active, with transactions mainly based on demand. In addition, due to weather conditions in some regions, holders are offering discounts to ship, weakening the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is average, downstream buying is in high demand, and market transactions are still acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Product name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (December 20th): 8100.00 yuan/ton

On December 20th, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly increased, with a price increase of 33.33 yuan/ton compared to December 19th, an increase of 1.67%, and a year-on-year increase of 22.73%. The price of raw material propylene has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market for new pentanediol is consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Some manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of goods in the market, and some dealers have raised their prices.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The average market price is around 8200 yuan/ton.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of tetrahydrofuran has slightly declined this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 12975.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12825.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.16%, and the weekend price increased by 0.59% year-on-year.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the 1,4-butanediol market saw a slight decline this week, with prices dropping from 9557.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9542.86 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.15%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.49% at the end of the week. The market situation of maleic anhydride has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7380.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 2.50%. The weekend price has increased by 4.83% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices fluctuate, with average cost support. However, due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has stabilized at a low level this week. The price of spandex is 32575.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.24% over the weekend. The downstream spandex market prices are consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers are less proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late December, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream maleic anhydride market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has a downward trend, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.