According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market is weak and volatile. From August 15th to 22nd, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3759 yuan/ton to 3749 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%, a month on month decrease of 1.36%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.65%. There is still an imbalance between supply and demand, with significant supply pressure and a short-term weakness in the asphalt market.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month for major production enterprises, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices are weak and volatile. As of August 21, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is at $80.12 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is at $84.46 per barrel.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The market has slowly recovered in the early stages of demand, and demand in some regions has gradually increased. However, some regions are still difficult to show significant improvement due to the impact of rainfall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of August 22nd, the oil asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2311 opened at 3790 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3808 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3779 yuan/ton. It closed at 3797 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.21%. The trading volume is 231760 lots, the holding volume is 367492 lots, and the daily increase is -6089.

In the future market forecast, the supply continues to be high, and from the demand side, there will be short-term rainfall in the northeast region of North China, which may hinder demand. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride fluctuated narrowly this week, with a price of 2637.50 yuan/ton. On August 21, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 85.32, an increase of 1.59 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 51.13% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 46.47% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have fluctuated. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2400 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2600 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2700 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2400 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly increased this week, rising from 7100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7120.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.28%, and a year-on-year decrease of 25.45% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.87%. The weekend price fell by 23.36% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late August, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

This week (8.11-8.19), the acrylonitrile market continued to decline slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% from last Friday’s 8400 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 8200 to 8400 yuan/ton. The slight increase in raw material prices still provides cost support for acrylonitrile; Downstream construction has slightly increased compared to the early stage, and the demand for acrylonitrile has slightly increased compared to the early stage; The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has a certain negative impact on acrylonitrile.

This week (8.11-8.19), the domestic acrylonitrile production has remained stable, with a production rate of around 7.8%.

This week (8.11-8.19), the raw material propylene market slightly rose and fluctuated, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the domestic propylene price was 6813 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.0774% compared to last Friday’s 6763 yuan/ton.

It is understood that downstream ABS prices have risen this week, with construction starting around 8.6%, a slight increase compared to the beginning of the month; The nitrile rubber orchidization plant was partially restarted, but Jinpu Yingsa shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in industry production, while acrylic fiber production remained at a low level. Overall, the downstream main industry of acrylonitrile has seen a slight increase in construction, while the demand for acrylonitrile support has slightly increased.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply pressure has increased and there is some support in the demand side. Overall, it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile in the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average TDI market price in East China on August 17th was 19100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% compared to the previous working day of 18866.67 yuan/ton, indicating a strong market trend. The factory’s stock is tight, prices are firm, and suppliers are strong in the market. The market has learned that the latest executed price of TDI at a certain factory in Shanghai is 20200 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 700 yuan/ton. The supplier’s news guides the trade market’s quotation to rise, and TDI prices have risen. Downstream parties have resistance to high prices, and purchasing in the market follows up on demand. The market supply and demand game, and the trading atmosphere is weak, which to some extent suppresses the increase of TDI.

At present, the supply of goods is tight, and the supplier’s mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will consolidate and operate at a high level, and specific attention will be paid to the situation of factory equipment.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 12210.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12612.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.30%. Weekend prices fell by 29.54% year-on-year.

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 11214.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11350 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.21%. Weekend prices increased by 13.50% year-on-year. This week, the market for maleic anhydride fluctuated and fell, with prices dropping from 6480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6440 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.62%. Weekend prices fell 11.54% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market has seen more price increases than decreases, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has slightly increased this week. The price of spandex has increased from 33500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 33625.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.37%. Weekend prices fell by 1.39% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively increasing their purchases of tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In mid to late August, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream 1,4-butanediol market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society tetrahydrofura

n analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.