Product name: PVC

Latest price: 5890 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On October 11th, the spot market price of PVC continued to decline, and the atmosphere on the market was average. In terms of raw materials, the factory price of upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stable. In terms of futures, futures continued to decline today. At present, the two cities are still showing weakness, but the downward adjustment has narrowed. At present, the mentality of the PVC market is average, and the market transaction situation is light.

Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market will experience weak and stable consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, due to significant fluctuations in raw material costs, the overall market price of sodium metabisulfite in China hit a bottom and rebounded significantly in the first three quarters of 2023. On September 30, the average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2550.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 43.75% compared to the low point of the year.

In the first quarter, the price of domestic soda ash increased by 4.23%, while the price of sulfur decreased by 16.01%. The overall bottom of raw material costs fluctuated, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite remained relatively low and consolidated. Supported by the continuous low start of production by production enterprises and a shortage of 30% of product inventory, the overall low and slightly strong market price of sodium metabisulfite in the first quarter increased by 2.84%,

In the second quarter, the cost of upstream raw materials significantly decreased, with soda ash prices falling by 28.99% and sulfur prices falling by 33.13%. The cost of raw materials significantly decreased, and under a low-pressure system, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite significantly decreased. Under the mentality of buying up or not buying down, downstream trading entities had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the problem of strong market supply and weak demand was highlighted. The domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline weakly, with an overall significant drop of 18.62% in the second quarter.

In July, the raw material cost fluctuated and stabilized, and the decline in the market price of sodium metabisulfite slowed down. In August and September, the raw material cost rebounded significantly, and supported by a significant increase in costs, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite rebounded significantly. Downstream stocking was relatively active, and the market entered a supply-demand situation. In the third quarter, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite rebounded significantly, with an overall increase of 36.44%.

The 100 day moving correlation coefficient r100 between soda ash and sodium metabisulfite is 0.916, which is greater than its long-term correlation coefficient of 0.847 since 2011-03-01. The domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite is mainly affected by fluctuations in domestic soda ash prices.

Supported by a significant increase in raw material prices in the third quarter, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite has significantly increased. In October, the upstream raw material prices of sodium metabisulfite overall rose and fell. As of October 9th, the price of soda ash fell by 2.91% during the month, while the price of sulfur fell by 5.91%. The cost of raw materials rose and fell, leading to a slight decline in the overall domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite.

Analysts from Business Society believe that due to the recent rise and fall in upstream raw material prices, downstream trading entities are more cautious in their purchasing intentions. Manufacturers have slightly lowered their factory prices to ensure shipment, and in the short term, under a low cost system, there will still be some room for the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to fall back. Overall, the current domestic soda ash price is still relatively high, and the relatively high raw material cost operation will provide some support for the future market price of sodium metabisulfite. Throughout the year, the supply and demand of the domestic sodium metabisulfite market is relatively stable, and the fourth quarter is the traditional off-season of demand. It is expected that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will not reach a new high in the fourth quarter, and the overall operation will continue to follow the relatively high price of soda ash.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuate and fall after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 8th, the price of acetic anhydride was 7352.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% compared to the price of 7490 yuan/ton on October 1st. In late September, the price increase of acetic anhydride slowed down, and the price increase of acetic anhydride was sluggish. After the holiday, the price of acetic anhydride fell, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased. The price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell.

Acetic acid prices fluctuate and fall after the holiday

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of October 8th, the price of acetic acid was 4866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the price of 4933.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. In late September, acetic acid enterprises resumed operations, with an increase in acetic acid supply, while downstream procurement enthusiasm decreased. After the holiday, acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell, increasing pressure on acetic anhydride costs to decline.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data believe that acetic acid manufacturers have resumed operations, increased acetic acid inventory, increased acetic acid supply, and a decrease in acetic acid prices and acetic anhydride costs after the holiday. In the future, downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor. As acetic acid companies resume operations, the price of acetic acid drops, the cost of acetic anhydride decreases, and the demand for cost reduction is weak. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOP skyrocketed after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the price of DOP was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.32% compared to the price of 11583.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of plasticizers stopped falling and rebounded, with a significant increase in DOP prices on October 7th.

The price of isooctanol surged after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 7th was 12360 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.83% compared to the price of 12020 yuan/ton on October 1st. During the holiday period, plasticizer manufacturers actively purchased and replenished downstream stocks of isooctanol after the holiday. The demand for isooctanol increased, and the price of isooctanol increased significantly after the holiday.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that during the Double Festival period, downstream customers of isooctanol actively purchase, and after the festival, plasticizer enterprises replenish their inventory, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices; The price of phthalic anhydride raw materials has fluctuated and fallen, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fallen under pressure. Overall, after the holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP raw materials has significantly increased, and the upward momentum of plasticizer DOP has increased. The price of plasticizer DOP has also fluctuated significantly.

Price trend

In September, the domestic EVA market remained stagnant and fell, with a significant decline in spot prices in the second half of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 30th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 13166.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Since early September, the overall supply of ethylene at the raw material end has gradually increased. The supply of inventory at the port is stable, while overseas sources of goods are increasing. The cost side of the petroleum market has been strengthened due to the strong impact of crude oil fluctuations, coupled with the release of domestic stock demand in September. Therefore, the ethylene market has a long short game within the range, and the market is relatively stable and strong;

In terms of vinyl acetate, the industry started at a low level at the beginning of the month, but there were additional sources of imported goods. In the latter half of the year, the load gradually rebounded and the tight supply pattern eased. At the same time, the remote upstream crude oil has boosted, coupled with the demand for pre holiday stocking, vinyl acetate is basically facing a good trend. In September, on exchange trading focused on delivering orders, but in late October, trading slowed down and prices remained stable and strong. During the cycle, the market for EVA raw materials remained strong, and the support for the EVA market was moderate.

On the supply side:

In September, the resumption of installation and maintenance of domestic EVA enterprises were mutually evident, and the industry’s operating rate was mainly characterized by high fluctuations. The high point of overall enterprise load occurred in the second week, about 88%. Due to a significant increase in supply in the first half of the month, supply pressure quickly rose. Afterwards, the operating rate fluctuated and reorganized, with an average load of about 80.07% within 30 days. In terms of production, it is generally the same as last month, with a monthly production of around 170000 tons. The pressure on factory inventory is gradually increasing, and manufacturers are loosening their factory pricing. The mentality of traders has weakened, following the drop in factory prices. EVA suppliers have weak support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

September is the traditional peak season for EVA consumption, but this year’s “Golden Nine” domestic EVA market stock boom has not arrived as scheduled. At the beginning of the month, photovoltaic companies were able to smooth out the decline in EVA consumption in other directions by taking on the preliminary stage of stocking market. However, as the positive demand for photovoltaic film gradually wears out, the negative trend of long-term weak consumption of foam shoe materials begins to dominate. The synchronous weakening of cable material delivery has led to a gradual collapse of the demand side for EVA. At present, the follow-up of terminal enterprises is lagging behind, and there is limited trading on the market. The buyer has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and is resistant to high priced sources of goods.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market did not perform well during the peak season in September and fell against the trend. Although the raw material market remains strong in supporting EVA spot sales, weak downstream demand is dragging down the market. At the same time, the industry load continues