According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have continued to decline recently. On December 5th, the rare earth index was 487 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 51.64% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 79.70% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have all declined. As of the 6th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 580000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.11%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 472500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.07%; The price of neodymium oxide is 482500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 1.53%; The price of neodymium metal was 612500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.61%; The price of praseodymium metal is 600000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 3.23%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 485000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.02%.

The domestic light rare earth market has continued to decline, with recent transactions mainly in demand. Due to a small number of new orders and low purchasing willingness of enterprises, the overall decline in the market is difficult to change. Recently, some companies have reduced production and ensured prices, while downstream purchases are on demand. Metal spot transactions are under pressure, and downstream magnetic material companies have a low willingness to purchase, mainly relying on inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, leading to a continuous decline in rare earth market prices. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, and the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is still inverted. The transaction situation is poor, and the decrease in procurement has led to a continuous decline in the domestic light rare earth market prices.

According to statistics, in October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 989000 and 956000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 5.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.2% and 33.5%, respectively. From January to October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 7.352 million and 7.28 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China imported a total of 145000 tons of rare earths from January to October 2023, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%. The significant increase in imported rare earth raw materials has impacted the domestic rare earth market, causing a decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 28th to December 5th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16100 yuan/ton to 15816 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.76% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.07%. The domestic aggregated MDI market prices have fallen, with a slow decline and a poor overall trading atmosphere, with some shipments showing strong willingness. But as the settlement of supplier prices at the end of the month exceeded expectations, a cautious atmosphere increased, with slow follow-up being the main focus.

On the supply side, Kesichuang will undergo maintenance on November 16th, lasting for about a month. Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd.’s MDI Phase I 400000 ton/year unit will start maintenance on November 15th, and the Phase II 800000 ton/year unit will start shutdown maintenance on December 3rd, with each unit undergoing maintenance for about 50 days. Both Chongqing BASF and Shanghai Lianheng have maintenance plans, and the supply side is gradually shrinking. The overall market support still exists. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has continued to decline in the East China market. The prices of main operating units have once again been lowered, and news of unplanned shutdown of some downstream units has spread. The overall downstream demand continues to decrease, and the atmosphere of spot buying by customers is insufficient, with a focus on buying on dips. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6867.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: There is a strong bearish atmosphere in the aniline market, with lower willingness to reserve downstream positions and a focus on on-demand procurement. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 11475.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI deviates from the influence of null factors.

On the demand side, inventory is at a low level, but the short-term improvement in consumption capacity is expected to be limited. Participants remain in a market driven state, coupled with some aggregated MDI imported goods offering low prices and buying at low prices. The ability to follow up on higher prices is limited. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the current supply and demand are weak and horizontal. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market may continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell first and then rose this week (11.27-12.4). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 201010 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 200460 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.27%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In the early stage, the tin market was affected by a sufficient supply of imported goods, and prices continued to decline. As prices declined, downstream entry was active, and market transactions were good. The decline in inventory boosted tin prices, which rose on Friday night and continued to rise on Monday morning. Shanghai tin closed up 1.83%. In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of smelters is relatively stable. However, with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively sufficient, and inventory is relatively high. In terms of demand, there has been little change in terminal consumption recently, and the overall trend is still weak. However, with the recent decline in tin prices, downstream market entry enthusiasm has increased, actively replenishing inventory, and purchasing intentions are still acceptable. Overall, the tin ingot market has recently seen loose supply and weak demand, and it is expected to remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term. However, the spot market has recently seen good transactions, and the downward space for tin prices is also limited.

On December 3rd, the non-ferrous index was at 1088 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.26% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.24% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 48th week of 2023 (11.27-12.1), there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were silver (5.59%), nickel (5.21%), and gold (2.13%). There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decline, and 1 product with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were cobalt (-8.48%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-4.55%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-3.32%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.38%.

In November, the butadiene styrene rubber market was weak and fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 11841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.89% from 12583 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In November, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber was loose, with downstream tire production increasing in the early stage and styrene butadiene rubber receiving demand support. In the later stage, downstream inquiries were wait-and-see, and market transactions were flat; At the end of the month, the high price of raw material butadiene decreased, and the overall price of styrene declined. The cost support for butadiene styrene rubber gradually weakened, and the overall price of butadiene styrene rubber declined.

In November, the supply of butadiene styrene rubber was mainly loose.

In October, the price of butadiene, a raw material for styrene butadiene rubber, was strong in the early stage and fell at the end of the month. The price of styrene was weak and fell, and the cost support for styrene butadiene rubber gradually weakened.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of butadiene was 9125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 9516 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of November 30th, the price of styrene was 8416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.17% from 8783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In October, the natural rubber market first rose and then fell, providing slightly stronger support for styrene butadiene rubber in the early stage. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price was 12850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the beginning of the month’s 12860 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 13160 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Tire production in November slightly increased compared to October, providing some essential support for rubber. However, as tires enter the off-season at the end of the year, tire factory production expectations are expected to decrease, and support for rubber may weaken in the future. It is understood that as of late November 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 640%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that downstream production is generally stable, but expectations are expected to decrease in the later stage. The supply of butadiene styrene rubber has slightly declined, and the price of raw material butadiene styrene has declined. It is expected that the butadiene styrene rubber market will remain weak in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8228 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price on November 30th was 8100 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation fell by 1.56%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9112 yuan/ton on November 2nd, and the average price on November 30th was 9137 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8650 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price on November 30th was 8550 yuan/ton, with a 1.16% decrease in quotation during this period.

In November, the overall performance of polyethylene showed a weak trend. LDPE performed relatively well in resistance to decline, while LLDPE and HDPE saw a narrow decline adjustment. At the beginning of the month, companies showed a slight upward trend in their prices, but there was limited upward potential. The international oil price trend within the month was volatile and weak, suppressing the polyethylene market. The maintenance equipment of petrochemical enterprises has decreased compared to the previous period, and the supply of polyethylene is still sufficient. Downstream agricultural film and pipe demand has weakened, market demand has weakened, with rigid demand as the main focus and limited new orders; Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price.

On November 30th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7890 yuan, and the closing price was 7968 yuan, up 86 yuan. The highest price was 7979 yuan, and the lowest was 7869 yuan, up 1.09%. In November, polyethylene futures fluctuated in the first half of the month, with a significant decline in the second half and a slight increase towards the end of the month.

On November 29th, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, supporting polyethylene on the cost side. The operating rate of agricultural film enterprises is relatively low, downstream procurement enthusiasm is reduced, demand side support is insufficient, polyethylene fundamentals are poor, and there is a lack of effective upward momentum. It is expected that they will mainly fluctuate weakly.