According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, 2025, the gold spot market price was 945.46 yuan/gram, an increase of 8.41% from the gold spot market price of 872.11 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 4.13% from the gold spot market price of 986.21 yuan/gram on October 21; During the month, the price of gold first rose and then fell, repeatedly reaching new highs in the early stages. Today, it has fallen back from its high point, and the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver in the market on October 22, 2025 was 11299.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.76% compared to the average price of 10890.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 4.39% compared to the average price of 11891 yuan/kg on October 21.
Overview of precious metal and crude oil price trends
Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has shifted from a short-term weak positive correlation to a long-term significant negative correlation.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year
The market trends of gold and silver during the one-year cycle from October 22, 2024 to October 22, 2025:
1. Overall trend: synchronous rise, gold performance stronger
Both gold (blue line) and silver (pink line) have shown a significant upward trend, with gold prices fluctuating by over 56.53% and silver prices exceeding 40.34%. The precious metal sector as a whole is in a strong market. Among them, the increase in gold is significantly higher than that of silver, reflecting the advantages of gold in terms of hedging and preservation properties. Under market driving factors such as macroeconomic environment and geopolitics, funds tend to allocate more to gold, making its increase lead.
2. Stage trend: fluctuating upward, accelerating upward in the later stage
In the initial period (October 2024 April 2025), both gold and silver experienced a fluctuating upward trend, during which gold’s rise exceeded 30% first, while silver slowly rose in volatility, with a relatively lagging increase. The upward momentum of precious metals in this stage mainly comes from the safe haven demand brought about by global economic uncertainty, as well as changes in monetary policy expectations.
In the mid-term (April 2025 to August 2025), gold enters a period of high volatility, with an increase maintained in the range of 25% -30%; Silver began to accelerate its catch-up, with its increase rapidly rising from single digits to nearly 20%. At this stage, the market’s allocation logic for precious metals has shifted from a single safe haven to a dual logic of “safe haven+industrial demand (silver)”. Silver’s industrial attributes (such as new energy and electronic applications) have begun to exert force, driving its price increase to expand.
In the later period (August 2025 to October 2025), both gold and silver entered an accelerated upward trend, especially with gold breaking through 56% and silver breaking through 40% in the final stage. This stage may be strongly driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks and the easing of monetary policies in major economies around the world (such as expectations of interest rate cuts). The attractiveness of precious metals as anti inflation and safe haven assets is further amplified, and a large influx of funds is driving up prices rapidly.
3. Market driven logic
Macroeconomics: The uncertainty of global economic growth, changes in inflation levels, and the direction of monetary policy by major central banks (such as the Federal Reserve) (such as the start of interest rate cutting cycles) are the core macroeconomic factors driving up precious metal prices.
Safe haven demand: The safe haven sentiment triggered by regional conflicts, financial market fluctuations, and other events has a particularly significant driving effect on gold, making it a “safe harbor” for funds.
Industrial demand: The industrial application demand of silver in new energy, electronics and other fields provided additional support for its rise in the later stage of the market, narrowing the gap with gold’s rise.
In summary, the precious metal market in the past year has been characterized by “gold leading the rise, silver following suit, and later accelerating together”, presenting a strong bull market overall, and the driving factors of the market have evolved from a single logic in the early stage to a diversified logic in the later stage.
Reason for today’s callback
On October 22, 2025, precious metals gold and silver experienced a significant decline, mainly driven by multiple factors including:
1、 Profit taking and technical correction
In the early stage, the prices of gold and silver continued to rise and hit historical highs, accumulating a large number of profitable stocks in the market. When the price rises too quickly, investors, driven by the need to lock in profits, concentrate on profit taking operations, triggering a technical correction. For example, spot gold fell more than 6.3% on the same day, marking the largest daily decline since April 2013; Spot silver fell more than 8.7% at one point, the largest decline since 2021, and this extreme volatility is a direct reflection of the concentration and exit of profit taking.
2、 Geopolitical risk mitigation
The geopolitical hedging logic that previously drove the rise of precious metals has loosened. On the one hand, the news of the ceasefire agreement reached in the Israeli Palestinian conflict weakened market risk aversion; On the other hand, former US President Trump’s softening of trade attitudes has also reduced concerns about global trade frictions, greatly reducing the safe haven appeal of gold.
3、 Forced sell-off triggered by market liquidity crisis
The tight liquidity in the financial system has forced investors to sell high liquidity assets. Former economic advisor to the Federal Reserve in Dallas pointed out that the sharp drop in gold is a “distress signal” for a systemic “liquidity crisis” – some investors are forced to liquidate liquid assets such as gold due to receiving margin call notices or needing to quickly raise cash, which further exacerbates the price decline.
4、 The indirect impact of fluctuations in the US dollar index
Despite a slight decline in the US dollar index on that day, the changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations in the earlier period have been fully reflected in prices. The market’s expectation of a Fed rate cut (such as a 25 basis point cut in October) has been overvalued, and when the policy is implemented, funds are transferred from the precious metal market to other assets, leading to insufficient buying of gold and silver.
5、 Position Structure and Changes in Market Sentiment
From the position data, it can be seen that gold and silver ETFs have continued to increase their holdings in the early stage, accumulating a large number of speculative long positions. When market sentiment shifts from optimism to caution, these crowded long positions are concentrated and liquidated, forming a situation of “buying more, killing more”, amplifying price declines.
In summary, the decline in precious metals this time is the result of the resonance of factors such as profit taking, geopolitical easing, liquidity pressure, and deteriorating position structure, and belongs to a stage adjustment after the previous rise.
Future forecast
In the future, the precious metal market will experience short-term fluctuations, medium-term differentiation, and long-term improvement. In the later stage, we will focus on changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy trends, geopolitical situation, and industrial demand data.
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