According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from September 1 to September 8, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased from 7816.67 yuan/ton last week to 8400 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 7.46%.

In terms of crude oil: OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices. On September 7th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $86.87 per barrel, a decrease of $0.67 or 0.8%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $89.92 per barrel, a decrease of $0.68 or 0.8%. Long profit taking, coupled with market vigilance against weak demand expectations, has suppressed oil prices.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been raised three times in this cycle, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan/ton during the week. Currently, it is priced at 8350 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for six consecutive weeks, slightly falling for three consecutive weeks, and rising by another 2.01% this week.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the macro performance of this week was good, with domestic commodity prices rising more or falling less, and the market atmosphere was more active. Crude oil continued to rise during the week, with styrene strengthening on the market. The supply of pure benzene itself was slightly tight, and downstream markets were actively entering the market. Under the influence of multiple positive factors, the pure benzene market has rapidly risen this week, while the hydrogenation benzene market has been significantly affected. The factory price in the main production area has increased to 8400 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 550 yuan/ton during the week.

This week, the domestic hydrogenation benzene market saw a significant increase, with an increase of 400-450 yuan/ton. On the supply side, driven by costs and profits, the overall operating rate has increased this week, with slightly loose supply and little overall change. The changes in demand have been limited this week, and the impact of supply and demand on the market during the week is relatively small, mainly following the trend of the industrial chain. In the future market, the expectations for gold, silver, and ten are relatively sufficient. As the National Day holiday approaches, there are generally stocking plans in the market and downstream, and there are obvious positive factors in the market. However, as market prices rise to high levels, further upward resistance increases. After the weekend crude oil correction, the hydrogenation benzene market slightly declines. It is expected that the high consolidation trend of the pure benzene industry chain in the future will be the main focus, with a focus on downstream stocking plans.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 7th, the DBP price was 10325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the DBP price of 10425 yuan/ton on August 31st; The DBP price decreased by 1.90% compared to 10525 yuan/ton on September 1st. DBP raw material isooctanol prices have fallen from a high point, n-butanol prices have fluctuated and increased, phthalic anhydride prices have fluctuated and increased, plasticizer DBP costs have increased, plasticizer demand is cold, high cost and low demand, plasticizer DBP profit space has decreased, plasticizer DBP enterprises’ willingness to start work has decreased, plasticizer DBP enterprises have started low, plasticizer DBP prices have fluctuated and decreased.

The high price of isooctanol has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 7th was 12940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the price of 13040 yuan/ton on August 31st. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operating and restarted, and the supply of isooctanol has rebounded, resulting in a high price drop for isooctanol. The reduction in production of DBP devices has weakened its sentiment towards purchasing high priced isooctanol, leading to a downward trend in the isooctanol market and weakened cost support for plasticizer DBP in the future.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 7th, the price of n-butanol was 9833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.72% compared to August 31st, when the price of n-butanol was 9666.67 yuan/ton. The n-butanol market is generally consolidating and operating, with relatively calm supply and demand on the market. Downstream demand is flat, and downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm. The n-butanol on-site supply is increasing, and supply and demand support is loose. The price of n-butanol tends to stabilize after rising, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP still exists.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride rebounds and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of September 7th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8662.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on August 31st. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride on-site devices is stable, and the on-site spot supply is normal. Recently, the situation of phthalic anhydride sales has been average. The market trend of phthalic anhydride on the site has rebounded, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride in China has rebounded and increased. The profit of phthalic anhydride is inverted, and the willingness to sell phthalic anhydride has increased. The future market of phthalic anhydride is mainly strong.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of cost, the high price of isooctanol has fallen, the price of n-butanol has fluctuated and increased, the market for phthalic anhydride has risen strongly, and the cost of plasticizer DBP products is supported; On the demand side, PVC demand growth is less than expected, downstream customers are cautious in buying, and demand for plasticizers is relatively cold. In terms of construction, under the dual pressure of market losses and high inventory levels, the DBP market has reduced production and guaranteed prices. In September, Shandong Lanfan, Kaifeng Jiuhong and other devices have all reduced production operations. In the future, there will be high cost and low demand pressure. Although plasticizer companies have reduced their load and started operations to alleviate inventory pressure, the market will continue to sell out in a “buy up kill down” sentiment. It is expected that DBP prices will consolidate at a high level in the future.

Product Name: Neopentyl Glycol

Latest price (September 6th): 10033.33 yuan/ton

On September 6th, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol slightly increased, with a price increase of 233.33 yuan/ton compared to September 5th, an increase of 2.38%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.27%. The market price of isobutyraldehyde, a raw material, has recently increased significantly, leading to increased cost support. The market situation of downstream polyester resin is average, and downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing neopentyl glycol.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly. The average market price is around 10200 yuan/ton.

Aluminum prices exceeded 19000 yuan/ton in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on September 5, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 19253.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88% compared to the previous trading day, and a decrease of 1.82% compared to the aluminum price of 19610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August.

Overview of Fundamentals

Enhanced raw material benefits:

The continuous production restrictions in the Sanmenxia area of Henan Province, coupled with the planned restart of an aluminum oxide enterprise in Inner Mongolia, involve a production capacity of approximately 500000 tons. The routine equipment maintenance work of some aluminum oxide enterprises in Shandong and southwestern regions, as well as the increase in overseas bauxite prices, have jointly exacerbated the problem of tight supply of bauxite. The cost of aluminum oxide has increased, and the price of aluminum oxide has been firm.

2. Steam coal is affected by news and has positive support in the short term.

Increased pressure on the supply side

Supply side: With the resumption of production by electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. At present, the resumption of production in Yunnan region has come to an end. Although the current production capacity is relatively high, the proportion of aluminum water is still high, and the supply of aluminum ingots is still tight. The production of electrolytic aluminum in July was 3.481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%; The cumulative production from January to July was 23.618 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In August, with the release of production capacity in the Yunnan region, there are still expectations of production capacity growth.

Low inventory

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. As of September 4th, the mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots have a social inventory of 477000 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 20000 tons compared to August 29th. However, compared to July 31st, the inventory was 506000 tons and 29000 tons were removed. Based on year-on-year data, it is still at a low level in the same period of the past five years.

Future market forecast

Macroscopically positive, with strong supply and demand. Currently, electrolytic aluminum production capacity is operating at a high level, but the high aluminum water ratio has led to a low mainstream inventory of aluminum ingots in society. Aluminum has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton, mainly supported by low inventory and strong demand expectations, coupled with rising costs. However, recently, aluminum ingots have started to accumulate on a month to month basis, and it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate around the 19000 yuan/ton line in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in the East China region fell first and then rose this week (August 28th -9.4). On August 28th, the average market price was 216460 yuan/ton, and on September 4th, the average market price was 217310 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for nine consecutive weeks, with a slightly volatile operation in late July.

In terms of the futures market, the recent macro trend has been good, with the overall domestic and international environment warming, inflation in the United States falling, expectations for interest rate hikes lowered, and the external market showing a good trend. The domestic side continues to release heavyweight positive news, with economic expectations improving and overall macroeconomic performance improving, driving the metal market up. The metal market has generally risen this week, while tin prices have only slightly increased due to the drag of fundamentals.

The weak supply and demand situation has dragged down the upward trend of tin prices. There have been many news on the supply side in the Wa region recently, but domestic market insiders generally believe that the real impact of Myanmar’s mining ban on the market may be after September. Fundamentally speaking, the recent rebound in domestic refinery operations has led to a buildup of inventory in the domestic society. In terms of demand, downstream buyers still purchase according to demand, buying at low prices, and demand tends to be rigid. Overall, the supply and demand in the tin market are still weak, and the market sentiment is on the wait-and-see side. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future without the influence of external news. The recent market fluctuations will mainly follow macro factors, and the latest developments in Myanmar’s mining ban news will continue to be monitored in the future.

On September 3rd, the base metal index stood at 1231 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.82% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were 14 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2023 (8.28-9.1), with aluminum (3.65%), dysprosium metal (2.94%), and lead (2.32%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are two products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.68%) and cobalt (-1.65%) being the top two products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.68%.