According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of the mainstream domestic urea market fell in May due to shocks: the price of urea fell from 2613.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2401.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 8.13%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 24.98% year-on-year.

On May 30th, the urea commodity index was 111.69, an increase of 0.12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.68% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 100.88% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side, the price of domestic urea mainstream market fell sharply in May.

Cost side: Liquefied natural gas significantly decreases

Price details of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) in January

May 1st/ May 15th/ May 30th

Yangquan: 1260 yuan/ton, 1160 yuan/ton, 1160 yuan/ton

In May, the price of liquefied natural gas significantly decreased, dropping from 4416.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3728.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 15.58%, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.26% in the end of the month. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing in quick) fell slightly, from 1260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1160 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 100 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated and fell, dropping from 3233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.22%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 43.64% year-on-year. Overall, there has been a significant decline in upstream urea products and insufficient cost support.

On the demand side: The price of melamine has slightly decreased

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, and normal operation of composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises

Price trend

Last week, the domestic PA6 market weakened and spot prices were generally reduced. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 29th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13525 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.22% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that last week’s weak consolidation occurred. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to decline, and cost support continues to weaken. The supply and demand of caprolactam market also increased due to the increase of load. At the same time, the downstream demand was weak. Most of them purchased at low prices, and they were cautious. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be weak in the short term, which will be dominated by consolidation operation.

On the supply side:

Recently, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises has remained relatively stable, operating in a narrow range of around 70%. The market supply is stable, the inventory position continues to rise, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average. The factory price pricing is narrow and loose.

In terms of demand: downstream, the weaving and spinning industries have a moderate load. The actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The overall atmosphere of stocking on site is cautious, with no improvement in the situation of new orders. Buyers are resistant to high priced sources, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, there was a decline in the PA6 market. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of caprolactam was weak, and the cost end support of PA6 was not improved. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5533 yuan/ton on May 1, and 5433 yuan/ton on May 26. The market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell 1.81% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin fell this month. This month, the price of raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated, while the price of raw material liquid wax first fell and then rose, with average cost support. Downstream demand is weak, procurement enthusiasm is poor, and market transactions are weak. As of May 26th, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 5800 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast region is about 5500-5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4500-5000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has first decreased and then increased this month, and market demand is weak. Liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated and fluctuated this month. The market transaction is acceptable, and the manufacturer’s shipment is stable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin believe that raw material prices have risen and fallen recently, and cost support is still acceptable. The terminal demand continues to be sluggish, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the isopropanol market fell this week. Last Thursday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7140 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 6890 yuan/ton. The price fell by 3.5% during the week.

The domestic isopropanol market price fell this week. At present, the market situation is light, and the focus of the domestic isopropanol market is downward. Upstream acetone and propylene have fallen one after another, weakening cost support. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, with on-demand orders being the main focus. Most businesses maintain a wait-and-see attitude, with fewer inquiries and more wait-and-see behavior, resulting in slow shipments. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6600-6900 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6900-7400 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market has declined this week. Last Thursday, the average price of acetone was 6420 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 5987.5 yuan/ton. The price has been reduced by 6.74%. The downward adjustment of factories has a significant negative impact on the market. Although the operating rate of domestic phenolic ketone plants has declined and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high, market trading is sluggish, with fewer active inquiries from terminals and insufficient actual orders.

In terms of propylene, this week’s propylene market situation has decreased. Last Thursday, the average price of propylene in Shandong was 6952.6 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 6450.75 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 7.22%. Due to the sluggish demand market and a significant increase in upstream inventory, factories have continued to reduce prices and inventory to stimulate sales. However, the demand increase is limited, and downstream procurement is cautious, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that there will be no significant improvement in downstream demand in the short term, and the propylene market will maintain a weak trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have declined significantly, with weak overall support, weak downstream demand, and poor overall trading sentiment in the market. Downstream and traders have low enthusiasm for procurement and lack market confidence. Watch with caution. It is expected that the isopropanol market will be weak in the short term and will continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 23, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9925.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% compared to last Thursday (May 18).

Recently, the epoxy propane market has been stagnant and weak. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has decreased, and the cost support has been weak. Last week, some devices on the supply side have gradually increased, while the demand side is mainly wait-and-see. Downstream procurement mentality is cautious, and factory shipments have weakened. The market is stagnant. At the beginning of this week, the supply side increased, and downstream demand procurement is the main demand. The market atmosphere is average, and the epoxy propane market is showing weak operation. On the 23rd, the mainstream quotation for epoxy propane in the Shandong region was around 9450-9600 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the recent price of propylene in Shandong has dropped. On May 22, the reference price of propylene was 6783.25, down 3.82% from May 1 (7052.60).

According to epoxy propane analysts from Business Society, there is currently insufficient support on the cost side, incremental supply side, and cautious follow-up on the demand side. It is expected that the epoxy propane market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.