1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 19th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20500.00 yuan/ton, which was generally unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.14% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 19th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25166.67 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month price of 25333.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.15% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of May 19, the domestic price of chloroform continued to decline in a weak way, falling 10.64% in the month, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell again, falling 2.36% in the month. The cost of raw materials continued to decline. The downstream trade entities were cautious in purchasing and selling. Supported by the arrival of the refrigerant peak season, the manufacturer’s quotation was relatively firm on the whole, and the domestic R22 market price was stable on the whole this week.

As of May 19th, the overall price of trichloroethylene in China has continued to operate at a low level, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to decline weakly, with a decrease of 2.36% within the month. Upstream raw material prices have continued to decline weakly, and at the same time, due to the overall lack of downstream demand orders, enterprises have slightly lowered their factory prices. This week, the overall price of R134a in China has slightly adjusted.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid continued to decline after a slight recovery. The cost of raw materials continued to fall under the low pressure system, and the overall price of the domestic refrigerant market will continue to bear pressure in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business community, the cost of raw materials continues to decline, the refrigerant market price is relatively high, and the overall downstream procurement is cautious. In the short term, under the pressure of cost, it is expected that the domestic R22 and R134a market prices will fall to varying degrees.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11166 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the weekend was 11533 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 3.28% in price.

Most domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations remain stable, with some rising. The factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. Downstream market inquiries have increased, and most of the goods are sold according to orders, with a focus on market transactions.

Activated carbon has a rich source of raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shells, straw, etc. Through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Prediction: The activated carbon market needs to be supported by good news, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride continued to fluctuate and decline slightly in the first half of May. Among them, on May 1st, China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market reported 1800 yuan/ton, and on May 15th, the market reported 1781 yuan/ton, a half month decline of 1.04%.

As shown in the figure, the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride has been declining for several consecutive weeks since February. The weekly decline in April has occasionally expanded, and the decline in the first half of May has slightly contracted. Water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have normal production, sufficient spot inventory, unfavorable downstream procurement demand, weak industry prosperity, and a sustained weak market for polyaluminum chloride.

Raw Material Hydrochloric Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market in the first half of May fluctuated from around 207 yuan/ton to around 175 yuan/ton, with a half month drop of up to 15.46%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. It is expected that in the middle and late May, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market in the future will fall slightly, with the average market price of about 170 yuan/ton.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices continued to fluctuate slightly after a significant decline in the first half of May, with a weak trend. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on May 1st was 4416 yuan/ton, and on May 15th it was 3964 yuan/ton, a half month decrease of 10.24%.

Future forecast: In the first half of the month, the market for raw material hydrochloric acid and fuel liquefied natural gas has significantly declined, and cost support has also weakened. From the fundamental perspective of polyaluminum chloride, production in the main production areas is normal, there is sufficient stock in the market, and downstream demand continues to be weak, resulting in long-term oversupply in the market. Regarding the future market, the polyaluminum chloride market will continue to fluctuate and weaken.

Price trend

In the first half of May, the domestic ABS market was weak, and spot prices gradually declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11125 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.98% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: Recently, the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued, with enterprises resuming work and maintenance, and the overall load is showing an increasing pattern. In the middle of the month, China’s ABS operating rate is close to 90%, and recently, the overall narrow adjustment has been around 88%. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. The inventory of domestic enterprises has increased, while the mid stream inventory has remained stagnant at a high level. Merchants are under pressure, and their prices have declined.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has increased and decreased. The raw material acrylonitrile market has slightly increased. Since May, the domestic operating rate of acrylonitrile has remained around 6.5%, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. Although the demand side still has strong demand support, it has weakened compared to the previous period, coupled with a downward trend in the cost side, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market price has fallen. Affected by external market prices and low prices from mainstream domestic suppliers, with Sinopec’s supply prices dropping twice and some merchants still showing a bearish mentality, the butadiene market has significantly declined. Currently, there are many devices that have been shut down, and production is expected to continue to decline, with strong market supply support. However, in the short term, downstream demand continues to be weak, and it is expected that the domestic butadiene market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

From the figure below, it can be seen that according to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, the styrene market has declined in the past half month. The international oil price has fallen, and cost support is poor. Recently, there have been equipment maintenance and restart for styrene, and new equipment has entered the production stage. It is expected that the short-term volatility in the styrene market will be mainly lower.

In terms of demand: Downstream factories working in May, including the main terminal appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking up. The manufacturer’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and overall demand improvement is limited. The actual trading volume on the market is weak, and the smoothness of goods delivery is poor.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have seen a decline and a decrease, which has resulted in insufficient support for the cost side of ABS. Nearly 90% of petrochemical plants have started construction, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. The stacked inventory position has increased, leading to a softening of merchants’ mentality and a bias towards giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 12th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7333.33 yuan/ton. This week, the price of cyclohexane was stable and slightly strong, with a price increase of 1.15% compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the focus of negotiations is stable.

This week, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium product cyclohexane was around 7333.33 yuan/ton. The overall market negotiation center was stable, and logistics was smooth. Downstream procurement was mainly for immediate needs, and the willingness to stock up was not strong. The manufacturer made concessions and took orders.

Chemical Index: On May 11th, the chemical index stood at 890 points, a decrease of 5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 36.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 48.83% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from the Business Society believe that the market price of cyclohexane is stable and strong in the short term.