Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market remained stable, with spot prices hovering at high levels. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of August 25th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has stabilized slightly this week. On the supply side, the operating rate of the EVA industry has decreased compared to last week, and the overall load position is around 68%. The market supply is relatively low, and factory inventory pressure is still acceptable. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants fluctuates broadly within a narrow range, while factory prices remain stable. The social inventory pressure is average, and the confidence of traders is supported by aggregation factories and tends to be stable. On the demand side, there has been no improvement in the current support for EVA price on the demand side compared to the previous period. The maintenance of demand for photovoltaic materials and the phased stocking of terminal enterprises are the main support for the demand side. The follow-up of foam materials towards terminal enterprises lags behind, resulting in low actual prices and consumption maintaining at off-season levels, dragging down the overall demand side of EVA. The overall stock preparation operation on the site is clearly differentiated, and this week, companies have a moderate acceptance of high priced goods, with prices mainly operating horizontally.

Overall, the supply of EVA in the market has decreased significantly this week, and the downstream demand side is still driven by the main force of photovoltaics. Overall, companies mainly offer stable prices, with merchants following the market, while some photovoltaic offers have increased. The continuous poor demand for foaming has dragged down the overall market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic EVA market may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range due to the continuation of the game market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 24th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% compared to Monday’s price and 26.97% compared to the same period last year.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin was weak. Recently, the price of raw material glycerol has been mainly stable, while the price of raw material propylene has decreased. Cost support is weak, and the utilization rate of supply side production capacity is relatively flat compared to the previous period. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory raw materials are mainly consumed. The enthusiasm for inquiry procurement is insufficient, and small orders are mainly needed to follow up. Holders are under pressure to ship, resulting in a decrease in enterprise quotations.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on August 23 was 6763.25, an increase of 0.74% compared to August 1 (6713.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on August 23 was 14666.67, an increase of 3.29% compared to August 1 (14200.00).

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that the current market is not supported by good news, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (August 23rd): 12200.00/ton

On August 23rd, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province slightly increased, increasing by 233.33 yuan/ton or 1.95% compared to August 22nd, with a year-on-year increase of 47.58%. Upstream propylene prices continue to rise, with strong cost support. The downstream DOP market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream demand is good. Multiple benefits are good, but the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 12500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market is weak and volatile. From August 15th to 22nd, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3759 yuan/ton to 3749 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%, a month on month decrease of 1.36%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.65%. There is still an imbalance between supply and demand, with significant supply pressure and a short-term weakness in the asphalt market.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month for major production enterprises, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices are weak and volatile. As of August 21, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is at $80.12 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is at $84.46 per barrel.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The market has slowly recovered in the early stages of demand, and demand in some regions has gradually increased. However, some regions are still difficult to show significant improvement due to the impact of rainfall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of August 22nd, the oil asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2311 opened at 3790 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3808 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3779 yuan/ton. It closed at 3797 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.21%. The trading volume is 231760 lots, the holding volume is 367492 lots, and the daily increase is -6089.

In the future market forecast, the supply continues to be high, and from the demand side, there will be short-term rainfall in the northeast region of North China, which may hinder demand. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride fluctuated narrowly this week, with a price of 2637.50 yuan/ton. On August 21, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 85.32, an increase of 1.59 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 51.13% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 46.47% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have fluctuated. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2400 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2600 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2700 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2400 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly increased this week, rising from 7100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7120.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.28%, and a year-on-year decrease of 25.45% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.87%. The weekend price fell by 23.36% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late August, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.