According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, in the first half of 2023, the overall decline of soda ash was observed, with a “parabolic” pattern. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was 2648 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 1960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.98%.

 

From the annual price comparison chart of soda ash, it can be seen that the highest price of soda ash occurred around November 2021, and in the first half of 2023, the overall trend was high and low.

 

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the first half of 2023 showed four stages as a whole, with prices rising from January to early February. The period of price consolidation from February to April, followed by a downward trend in prices from April to early June, and finally showing a consolidation trend.

 

Phase 1: Upward phase. At the beginning of the year, the price was 2468 yuan/ton, and on February 6th, the price was 2730 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.1%. Because during the Spring Festival, although the supply of soda ash is relatively stable, downstream glass is stocked up before the festival, and the price of soda ash has slightly increased.

 

Second stage: consolidation stage. On February 6th, the price of soda ash was 2730 yuan/ton, and in early April, it was 2760 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.1%. The supply of soda ash is relatively stable, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively mild. However, downstream glass is mostly purchased according to demand, with a wait-and-see attitude, and supply and demand are still in a game.

 

Phase 3: Downward phase. At the beginning of April, the price of soda ash was 2760 yuan/ton. On June 6th, the price of soda ash was 1950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.36%. The supply of soda ash is relatively sufficient. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of soda ash in China from January to May was 13.14 million tons, an increase of 1.03 million tons or 8.47% compared to the same period last year. The downstream demand for soda ash is average, and it is still mainly purchased on demand, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Market participants have a strong bearish mentality in the upstream and downstream supply and demand game.

 

Stage 4: It is also a consolidation stage, but the price is far lower than the beginning of the year. The entire June was consolidated at around 1960 yuan/ton. The soda ash plant is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable. Recently, downstream soda ash has been purchased on demand, with supply and demand playing a game and soda ash prices fluctuating.

 

Forecast: Supply side

 

Data shows that as of July 6th, the inventory of domestic soda ash production enterprises was 395800 tons, which is at a five-year low level. The maintenance of soda ash from July to August is relatively concentrated, and it is expected that domestic soda ash inventory will slightly decrease in the short term.

 

In terms of demand

 

From the comparison chart of soda ash and glass price trends, it can be seen that the spot market of glass rose from January to June 2023. The average price in the monitored area was 18.68 yuan/square meter on January 1, and 21.35 yuan/square meter on June 30, with a comprehensive increase of 14.29% in the first half of the year. Although the price of glass slightly increased from April to May, it fell behind in stage replenishment after May, weakening market confidence, and the price of glass continued to weaken.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there will be more companies engaged in equipment maintenance for soda ash from July to August, and overall inventory will decline, providing favorable support for soda ash prices. However, based on the glass situation, real estate support is average, market confidence is average, and there is little room for soda ash prices to rise. In addition, although there are many short-term maintenance plans for soda ash, the production capacity deployment cycle for soda ash will also start. If new production capacity is launched on schedule in September, the inventory of soda ash will continue to accumulate. Data shows that the total inventory of domestic soda ash is expected to increase by 500000 to 700000 tons in the fourth quarter, with upstream inventory exceeding 1 million tons. Overall, it is expected that after a slight increase in the price of soda ash in the short term, the price may decline under pressure, depending on downstream market demand.

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Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

 

sulphamic acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 179.60 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 20.77% year-on-year. On July 16th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 47.26, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.73% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 162.85% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

 

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

 

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

 

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market price rose slightly, from 1712.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1718.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.36%. Weekend prices fell by 22.23% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 605.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price fell by 58.91% year-on-year. Overall, upstream support is average, while downstream demand is weak.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

In late July, the market price of hydrochloric acid may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was general. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market rose slightly, while the ammonium chloride market was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention was weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 14th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20433.33 yuan/ton, which was generally unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 21.39% compared to the same period last year

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 14th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% compared to the beginning of the month price of 24933.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 12.67% compared to the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

As of July 14, the domestic price of chloroform continued to decline, falling 11.11% in the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid was stable and weak, falling 0.74% in the month. The price of upstream raw materials continued to decline. Supported by the factors of the peak demand season for refrigerants in summer, the manufacturers’ price mentality remained unchanged, and the overall offer price was temporarily stable. This week, the domestic R22 market price was stable as a whole.

 

In the middle of July, the domestic Trichloroethylene price continued to operate at a low level, the hydrofluoric acid price continued to be weak, falling 0.74% in the month, and the raw material price continued to be low. In addition, the R134a market demand was less than expected to suppress, the manufacturer slightly reduced the R134a ex factory price, and the domestic R134a market price was stable, weak, and operated on the whole.

 

In terms of raw materials, the domestic prices of hydrofluoric acid continue to be weak, and the sustained low prices of raw materials will further suppress the future refrigerant market prices.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to decline, and downstream demand is less than expected. Under the pressure of many negative factors, the overall market prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will be under pressure in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices were relatively strong at the end of June. On June 30th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9033 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the domestic carbon black market showed a significant decline followed by a rebound trend. On January 1st, the price of carbon black was 12050 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 9033 yuan/ton. The highest price was 12050 yuan/ton, which appeared in January and the lowest point was 7900 yuan/ton, which appeared in May.

 

The first stage (1.1-2.28) saw a slight decline in weak oscillation operation

 

From January to February this year, the overall performance of raw materials was weak, with mixed ups and downs. Downstream enterprises did not have significant positive effects, and their enthusiasm for purchasing in the market was not high. The game between raw material fluctuations and downstream demand dragged on the carbon black market was weak.

 

The second stage (3.1-5.25) is a significant downward phase

 

The significant decline in raw materials from March to May is no longer supported, and prices fell significantly in March. The decline in April continued to expand. According to the price data of the business community, the market price of domestic high-temperature Coal tar fell sharply from April 12 to May 12, falling from 4750 yuan/ton to 2652.50 yuan/ton, down 44.16% in the cycle. Industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch are the main commodities in the deep processing industry of Coal tar. Since the beginning of 23 years, the price of deep processing commodities has basically kept pace with the trend of tar. In the early stage, the price of Coal tar plunged sharply, which is also mainly affected by the sharp drop in the prices of these four commodities. In addition, enterprises have a large inventory backlog, which depresses the market price of Coal tar and reduces the auction price in many regions.

 

In the third stage (5.25-6.30), the trend of the callback stage is fluctuating and upward

 

In the middle and late May, the auction price of the domestic high-temperature Coal tar market rose sharply, and the auction price of each main production area rose to a certain extent. Some coke enterprises rose more than 1000 yuan, which strongly supported the cost of carbon black. The situation turned into an upward trend. In early June, the auction price of domestic Coal tar rose and fell, and the carbon black market maintained stable operation.

2、 Industrial chain

 

1 Cost side

 

Specifically, in the first quarter, the overall performance of raw materials was weak, with weak demand, and bearish factors gradually occupying the dominant position, resulting in a weak market situation for carbon black. In the second quarter, in the middle of May, as the auction price of the domestic high-temperature Coal tar market rose sharply, the auction price of each main production area increased to a certain extent. Some coke enterprises increased by more than 1000 yuan, which strongly supported the cost of carbon black. The situation turned into an upward trend. However, by the beginning of June, the auction price of domestic Coal tar had declined, and the carbon black market was stable. The carbon black market in the second quarter showed a “V” trend.

 

In July, the coke enterprises started to work and the supply of Coal tar increased. The coke enterprises are basically on the edge of profit and loss, and have improved compared to the previous period. The coke market has a willingness to push up, and the overall construction has gradually improved, but there may still be an improvement in the later stage.

 

Downstream deep processing starts relatively high, and support is just needed. The overall commencement of the deep processing industry is still at a high level, and no enterprise has a clear plan to stop production and reduce production. The demand for raw material Coal tar is good for the market. In addition, the demand for coal tar pitch is expected to recover, and there is still room for growth in the short term, but the momentum for continuous growth may be insufficient. It is expected that the market will be stable in the later period, which will be good for the Coal tar market.

 

In general, the Coal tar market is expected to remain stable after rising in July 2023 when it enters the second half of the year.

 

Downstream market

 

The main consumption proportions of carbon black in the downstream market are tire carbon black, rubber carbon black, plastic, etc., accounting for 66.7%, 22.2%, and 6.3% respectively.

 

In the first half of this year, the overall operating rate of downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries remained stable, finished product inventory was at a reasonable level, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase goods was average. However, the performance of the rubber products and plastic masterbatch industries was flat, with purchases mainly in demand. June was the traditional off-season for lower cruise tire sales, and the demand side further weakened. The market was mostly in a wait-and-see state, and the bearish atmosphere gradually deepened, with transactions in the carbon black market being weak. Mainstream tire manufacturers have a strong sentiment towards suppressing carbon black, and market operators have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. There is currently no obvious positive news in the market.

3、 Changes in commencement and production capacity

 

sulphamic acid

1. Changes in commencement

 

In the first half of 2023, the average operating rate of Chinese carbon black enterprises was 56%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%.

 

From January to March, with the support of cost inventory, the enthusiasm of downstream tires for the purchase of carbon black goods has not improved significantly. Under the influence of the continuous decline of Coal tar, the end users have a bearish attitude, and the purchase of goods into the market is just a demand.

 

From April to May, the operating rate continued to decline. As the overall price of Coal tar fluctuated and declined, the pressure on carbon black production costs continued to weaken. Some carbon black enterprises, supported by a certain amount of inventory, reduced their operating load and dragged down the operating rate. In addition, the overall construction of the carbon black industry has declined due to the maintenance plans of some carbon black enterprises in certain regions.

 

2. China’s carbon black production capacity and growth rate from 2016 to 2021

 

Incomplete statistics show that in 2023, the total capacity of China’s carbon black market will be about 9.5 million tons, an increase of 990000 tons compared with last year, and the overall capacity will increase slightly, with East China and North China accounting for the largest proportion of carbon black capacity.

4、 Changes in imports and exports

 

1 Import

 

According to customs data, the total import of carbon black in China increased significantly from January to May 2023, with the most significant increase in May. The cumulative import quantity of carbon black in China is 107000 tons, an increase of 65600 tons compared to the same period last year, and a year-on-year increase of 158.8%.

 

In the first half of 2023, the total import volume of carbon black in China significantly increased compared to the same period last year, with both year-on-year and month on month increases. The main reason is that considering the production of carbon black from high priced raw materials in the early stage, domestic carbon black prices remain high throughout the month. Terminal enterprises have limited acceptance of high carbon black prices, and some downstream factories have high resistance to high carbon black prices, so they choose to partially import carbon black to replace domestic carbon black, Drive an increase in the import of carbon black.

 

2 outlets

 

According to customs data, the total amount of carbon black exports from China decreased slightly from January to May 2023. The cumulative total export volume of carbon black in China is 255200 tons, a decrease of 76500 tons compared to the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 23%.

 

Compared to imports, China’s carbon black export volume decreased year-on-year and slightly increased month on month, but the overall export volume is relatively low.

 

5、 Future Market Forecast

 

In the short term, the raw material Coal tar or high level is temporarily stable, while the downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises are slightly weak in receiving high price Coal tar, and their enthusiasm for receiving goods may be weakened. The traditional off-season for tire companies has not yet ended, and downstream tire sales pressure is not decreasing. There are currently many bearish factors in the carbon black market, and in the second half of 2023, the carbon black market prices may show a trend of weak range fluctuations.

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1、 Price trend

 

sulphamic acid

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the price of Neopentyl glycol in the domestic market fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of Neopentyl glycol in the domestic mainstream market dropped from 9600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9566.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 0.35%. Weekend prices fell by 21.80% year-on-year. On July 10, the Neopentyl glycol commodity index was 46.10, unchanged from yesterday, 55.51% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and 7.08% higher than the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of Neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market fell slightly this week.

 

From the perspective of Neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic Isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic mainstream market rose from 7033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.90%. Weekend prices fell by 2.71% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market rose slightly, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of Neopentyl glycol was positively affected.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

The market trend of Neopentyl glycol in the middle and late July may rise slightly. The upstream Isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, and cost support increased. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. The Neopentyl glycol analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Neopentyl glycol market is dominated by a small increase in market prices due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

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