After the Spring Festival, the domestic acrylonitrile market hit bottom and experienced a slight rebound in some areas, with the main support coming from the cost side. Recently, with the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, international crude oil and propylene prices have risen, and the cost pressure on acrylonitrile has once again increased, thereby stimulating the expansion of price increases. The overall market price has risen by about 200 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of major suppliers in Shandong region have reached 7400 yuan/ton for factory delivery. The prices of ports in East China have also risen to 7600-7700 yuan/ton. Considering the recent release of some factory maintenance plans, it is expected that the market will maintain an upward trend in the short term.
1、 Cost side drives acrylonitrile prices to bottom out and rebound
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic acrylonitrile production loss space has gradually expanded to over 1000 yuan/ton, and there is no sign of improvement in 2026. Before this round of price rebound, the price of acrylonitrile had already fallen to a historical low of 7000 yuan/ton. As the period of losses prolongs, some factories have released parking or maintenance plans after the Spring Festival, including Fushun Petrochemical which has already shut down, CNOOC Fudao which plans to shut down for maintenance for about 25 days at the end of March, Krul which will shut down for major repairs from April to June, and large factories such as Sirbond still maintaining low load operation. Due to the recovery stage of demand after the holiday, the combination of reduced supply and increased cost pressure provides particularly significant support for the market.
2、 The short-term impact of acrylonitrile exports is limited
In recent years, the export volume of acrylonitrile in China has been increasing year by year, but trade with the Middle East region is still relatively limited. In 2025, China will export a total of 311000 tons of acrylonitrile, with an export dependence of about 8.4%. Among them, the export volume to Saudi Arabia is about 16000 tons, accounting for 5.1%. In the short term, the situation in the Middle East has limited impact on the overall export situation of acrylonitrile, but in the long term, factors such as rising freight costs may to some extent affect the export volume of acrylonitrile to the Middle East and surrounding areas.
3、 The supply side still dominates the long-term price trend of acrylonitrile
In the short term, cost side fluctuations provide impetus for the price of acrylonitrile to rise, but it is still based on the expected supply side contraction in the future. Acrylonitrile, as an intermediate product, can only have a fundamental impact on prices when cost pressures affect production changes and implementation. It is expected that there is still room for upward exploration in the market in the future, but attention still needs to be paid to changes in the supply and demand pattern. It is expected that the continuous variables on the supply side will continue to suppress market volatility.
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