1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on May 29th was 784 yuan/ton. On June 5th, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 746 yuan/ton. This week, the price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 5.08%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. The domestic market for ammonium sulfate is weak and has been sorted out, with limited export orders and no improvement in the market. The downstream composite fertilizer market is generally weak, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. This week, urea prices rebounded, which is laterally positive for the ammonium sulfate market. As of June 5th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 630-690 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 730-780 yuan/ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market was volatile and organized, with slight fluctuations in the market. The trend of compound fertilizer raw material ammonium phosphate is not good, and the raw material urea has rebounded and risen, with acceptable cost support. Downstream replenishment is based on demand, with corn fertilizer orders being the main shipment, and new orders being negotiated for one more order.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has undergone a slight adjustment in recent days, and domestic and international demand remains weak. Downstream restocking as needed, with a small amount of new orders traded in the market. Under the favorable situation of urea rebound, it is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will stabilize and consolidate in the short term.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province dropped from 9460.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8960.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.29%. Weekend prices fell by 27.94% year-on-year. On June 4th, the isooctanol commodity index was 65.88, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 87.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6470.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6340.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.01%. Weekend prices fell by 21.53% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP dropped from 9817.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9560.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.62%. Weekend prices fell by 19.83% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In mid to late June, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market slightly declined, and downstream demand weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Product name: Yellow phosphorus

Latest price on June 2nd: 22900 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: The price of domestic yellow phosphorus market rose on June 2. At present, many enterprises producing yellow phosphorus are reducing their production load, some of them are parking, delaying the driving time, and the on-site inventory is controllable. The market spot is relatively tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus has increased. Many manufacturers do not provide external quotations, and actual orders are discussed in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious and can be taken as needed.

It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be relatively strong in the short term, and we will pay attention to changes in the news.

In the second half of the month, the domestic acetic acid market was operating in a weak state, with no pressure on enterprise inventory and maintaining active shipments. Downstream demand was average, and incoming purchases were followed up as needed. There were few new orders traded on the market, and operators were cautious in entering the market. Under the supply and demand game, the price of acetic acid was weak and stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52% compared to the price of 3300.00 yuan/ton on May 16, and an increase of 0.52% compared to the beginning of the month. As of May 31, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market has fluctuated and declined. As of May 31, the average price in the domestic market was 2160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.90% compared to the price of 2345.00 yuan/ton on May 16. Futures prices fell, raw coal prices declined, market confidence was insufficient, downstream demand was low, social inventory in the methanol market continued to accumulate, and with the continuous influx of imported goods, the price of methanol spot market was weak and downward.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. As of May 31, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the price of 5480.00 yuan/ton on May 16. The upstream acetic acid market is weak, the cost support for acetic anhydride is insufficient, and the downstream procurement of acetic anhydride is not good. A small number of transactions are followed up according to demand, and market negotiations are running, resulting in a decline in the price trend of acetic anhydride.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the supply of acetic acid in the market remains rational, enterprises actively ship, and downstream demand is average. The market trading atmosphere is light, and demand support is insufficient. The mentality of the industry is stagnant. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will operate in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of the mainstream domestic urea market fell in May due to shocks: the price of urea fell from 2613.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2401.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 8.13%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 24.98% year-on-year.

On May 30th, the urea commodity index was 111.69, an increase of 0.12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.68% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 100.88% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side, the price of domestic urea mainstream market fell sharply in May.

Cost side: Liquefied natural gas significantly decreases

Price details of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) in January

May 1st/ May 15th/ May 30th

Yangquan: 1260 yuan/ton, 1160 yuan/ton, 1160 yuan/ton

In May, the price of liquefied natural gas significantly decreased, dropping from 4416.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3728.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 15.58%, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.26% in the end of the month. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing in quick) fell slightly, from 1260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1160 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 100 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated and fell, dropping from 3233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.22%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 43.64% year-on-year. Overall, there has been a significant decline in upstream urea products and insufficient cost support.

On the demand side: The price of melamine has slightly decreased

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, and normal operation of composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises