According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, as of March 21, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 386250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.08% compared to last Thursday (March 16).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market continues to operate weakly. Recently, the price of upstream lithium carbonate has been falling constantly, and the support for cost has weakened. Under the mentality of downstream enterprises buying up or not, the market purchasing atmosphere is depressed, and there is a strong cautious wait-and-see attitude. Currently, the actual transaction in the market is not good, and the quotation in the lithium hydroxide market has declined.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the recent downward trend in the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate has continued to expand. On March 20, the reference price for lithium carbonate – industrial grade was 292600.00, a decrease of 23.52% compared to March 1 (382600.00).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from Business News believe that upstream lithium carbonate is currently in a downturn, downstream demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data from Business News Agency, on March 13, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3330 yuan/ton, and on March 20, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in China was 3260 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 2.10%.

According to data from the Business News Agency, on March 13th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3980 yuan/ton, and on March 20th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3980 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate was stable.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate was lowered this week. The price of raw sulfur fell, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is sluggish, with few new orders traded. As of March 20, the market quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei Province was about 3300 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Henan Province was about 3250 yuan/ton, and the market quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan Province was about 3100-3400 yuan/ton, with actual negotiation being the main topic.

The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week. The supply of ammonium chloride in the market is tight, and the price remains stable. Currently, there are many pending orders, and there is a small amount of replenishment downstream, resulting in flat demand. As of March 20, 64% of the diammonium chloride market in North China was quoted at around 3950-4050 yuan/ton, while 64% of the diammonium chloride market in Shandong was quoted at around 4000-4170 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, sulfur prices in East China fell this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s units operate normally, the market supply is stable, and downstream demand is acceptable. Purchase and follow up on demand when entering the market. The sulfur manufacturer negotiates shipment, and the industry is on the sidelines. The short-term sulfur market operates smoothly.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. This week, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable at a high level. The overall supply side of the phosphate rock field remains tight, and the supply side continues to support high market quotations. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, the downstream demand of the terminal continues to increase, and the downstream demand side of the phosphate rock performs steadily.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

An ammonium phosphate analyst from the Business Agency believes that the recent reduction in the price of raw material sulfur has not been beneficial for the cost side. Demand for monoammonium is light, with fewer new orders, and pending orders for diammonium are dominated. It is expected that the weak finishing operation of ammonium phosphate will prevail in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the domestic PC market fell this week, with spot prices of various brands generally lowered. As of March 17, the reference offer for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Club was around 16250 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above figure, the recent market atmosphere for bisphenol A has been flat, with the rise and fall of both raw materials phenol and acetone, and the cost pressure on downstream bisphenol A plants remains. However, the downstream end continues to suffer from a downturn and insufficient orders, making it difficult to anticipate improvement in the short term. The bisphenol A plant has a stable load, a capacity utilization rate of nearly 80%, and sufficient supply, resulting in an increase in supply and demand contradictions and poor support for PCs.

Supply: This week, the overall PC operating rate in China was around 70%, with a narrow increase compared to the previous period. In addition, there has been new production capacity to release the negative market, and recently, the construction of the maintenance production line has been delayed, with the expected load increase unchanged. Overall, the supply side lacks support for the spot goods.

Demand: Recently, the downstream PC industry just needs to maintain production, and the industry has a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Currently, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and there is a certain amount of raw material inventory that needs to be digested, resulting in increasingly light on-site trading. Traders have a weak mentality and operate in a biased way to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket Forecast

This week, the PC market fell, while the upstream bisphenol A market stabilized slightly, providing poor support for PC costs. The domestic polymerization plant has experienced a narrow rise in load, with weak follow-up on the demand side and high pressure on the supply side. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions in the near future.

On March 16th, the average market price in East China was 179660 yuan/ton, down 4.42% from the previous trading day. The mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market is 179000-180500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 179750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

On the night of the 15th, crude oil fell sharply, while the US dollar closed up 1%. The combination of bearish factors such as the Credit Suisse crisis affected market sentiment. The metal market fell throughout the night, with Shanghai Tin leading the decline of 4.17% in internal trading. In the morning of 16th, the metal decline slightly narrowed, but tin was strongly affected by the macro market. In the morning of 16th, it still fell by more than 3%, and the spot market significantly decreased following the trend of futures.

From the perspective of supply and demand, recent changes in tin have been limited, with both supply and demand weak. The recent fluctuations mainly follow the macro trend. In the future, the tin market still maintains a weak trend, and it is necessary to focus on the actual downstream demand and the impact of domestic and foreign macro policies on the market mentality.

This week (3.6-10), domestic polysilicon was mainly stabilized, the price of imported goods was slightly lower, and the price of domestic materials was the same as that quoted last week. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the weekly rise and fall rate was 0%. At the end of the week, the main stream range of single crystal densification with the model of Class I solar energy reached the range of 20.0-22.5 million yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the supply side has not changed much, and the enterprise operating rate has maintained a medium-high level. The manufacturer’s shipment volume remained stable, and the inventory pressure was low. The number of orders signed by large factories continued to follow up this week, and new orders were signed in April. As the price of downstream silicon wafers is weak, the bargaining power of silicon manufacturers is weakened, and the price of large silicon manufacturers mostly maintains the price level of last week, and may maintain interval adjustment later.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the price of Longji, a large silicon wafer manufacturer, increased by 4-5% last Friday, but the quotations of small and medium-sized silicon wafer manufacturers still did not improve. There was room for decline in the import supply of some models, and domestic silicon wafers remained stable. The main reason is that downstream battery cells and components generally resist the influence. The mainstream price of the mainstream model single crystal M10 is stable at 6.2 yuan/piece, and the mainstream price of G12 is stable at 8.2 yuan/piece. Downstream demand remained just in demand, and the operating rate of silicon wafer manufacturers remained at a medium level, with a slight slowdown in the supply, and silicon wafers remained weak in the short term.

From the perspective of battery chips and components, the price of battery chips stabilized this week, and the market stopped falling, mainly because the upstream silicon chips stopped falling and stabilized, and the battery profit space was limited. The mainstream transaction price of single crystal M10 battery chip was about 1.08 yuan/W, which was stable compared with the previous week and decreased by 0.02 yuan compared with the end of the previous month. The mainstream transaction price of G12 battery chips is about 1.08 yuan/W, which is the same as last week. The price of downstream components is mainly stabilized. Maintain the quotation level last week. The demand for terminal installation has not improved significantly. At present, the market is still playing upstream and downstream games.

Future forecast: The polycrystalline silicon analysts of the Business Agency believe that the current photovoltaic industry chain has entered a consolidation pattern, especially the weak growth in the downstream. The high costs in the upstream generally bring pressure to the downstream, and the price of silicon materials is difficult to improve much. Continued weak consolidation.