Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2008 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 4.38%, 27.49% compared with the same period last year.
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II. Market Analysis
Products: Domestic methanol market continued to decline this week, the mainland market fell 50-130 yuan/ton, the market trading atmosphere has not improved, downstream demand-based, traders are mostly empty sheet operations. Port trends are highly correlated with futures, with East and South China down 70-110 yuan/ton this week. On July 19, an explosion occurred at about 5.50 p.m. at the Yima Gasification Plant in Sanmenxia, Henan Province. The explosion resulted in 10 deaths, 5 loss of contact, 19 serious injuries and minor injuries to some people. Sanmenxia Yima Gasification Plant belongs to Henan Gas Group. At 10 o’clock on July 20, MTO methanol was produced in Zhongan combined methanol synthesis plant. The test run of coal chemical plant opened up the process of methanol production from coal, creating favorable conditions for subsequent olefin plant test run.
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Industry chain: formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde Market as a whole is running lower. The upstream methanol market continued to decline this week, many markets have fallen to new historical lows, the cost is difficult to support the formaldehyde market, coupled with environmental impact, the formaldehyde market started unstable, the overall start-up reduced, the downstream market is a large area of shutdown, the overall turnover is light, formaldehyde enterprise inventory pressure increased, most enterprises reported. Set down. Acetic acid: The malfunction of Yima plant in Henan Province has given rise to a soaring market mentality. Traders actively stock up, and near the end of the month, mainstream production enterprises stock up and deliver export orders. Overlapping for a good time has promoted the transaction price of acetic acid market to keep rising. The low price in the early period of Shaanxi Province has increased by 550 yuan/ton in only three days under the favorable support. Ships and cargo in South China market are delayed due to weather. Spot shortage in Central China and a small supply of automobiles have led to a situation in which the market has no market value. In the mid-week period, after a series of rises, the downstream industry acetate cost pressures are greater. Some manufacturers offer to ease the downstream cost pressures temporarily, and the market rally is dispersed. On the 25th, the unit of Tianjin Alkali Plant was reduced to 50% operation for 2 weeks. The supply of goods in North China market has intensified, and the market has continued to rise in stages. Dimethyl ether: This week, the supply situation of dimethyl ether Market is unbalanced and there is a gap in market demand. With this support, prices have risen sharply and grass-roots procurement has been actively carried out. After entering Thursday, the trading situation showed signs of stabilization and prices were consolidated horizontally. This week, the starting rate of domestic dimethyl ether enterprises was only 19.00%, which was 3.05% lower than that of last week and 13.83% lower than that of last week. Dimethyl ether in Henan production area was affected by the “gasification plant” incident, and the overall start-up was insufficient. At present, the start-up enterprises only have heart-to-heart, Hebi BMW, Zhumadian.
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3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, the war risk from Iran to China is increasing and the shipping cost is increasing; the MTO trial production of Nanjing Chengzhi Phase II is at the end of June; Shandong Luxi MTO is expected to test run at the end of July; Ningxia Baofeng plans to start production in early August; and the profit of products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether and MTO has improved significantly due to the continued low price of methanol. On the negative side, some domestic MTO enterprises that need to purchase methanol have maintenance plans, such as Jiangsu Shenghong, Shenhua Yulin and other enterprises. New domestic methanol plants are being constructed in an orderly way, including Yankuang Yulin 700,000 tons planned to go into operation in October; Inner Mongolia Rongxin expected to go into operation in September; affected by safety and environmental protection inspection, local market terminal enterprises stopped, affecting methanol consumption; the overall start of methanol in China maintained a high level, with imports estimated to be around 850,000 tons in August. The market is well supplied. The current situation of excessive supply and demand of methanol is the main reason for the continuous decline of the market and approaching the methanol production line. The continuous stringent national environmental protection and safety supervision is the main reason for the reduction of traditional downstream demand. With the approaching of the 70th anniversary of the National Day, environmental protection and safety supervision is not likely to relax; therefore, attention should be paid to the supply side. Whether there is a reduction or a change in trade sentiment is the cause of the reversal of the situation, focusing on the start-up of methanol production from natural gas and methanol production from coal. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by low consolidation.