Price Trend
The domestic butadiene market continued to rise this week. Business Club monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 10043 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 10 217 yuan/ton at the weekend, 1.74% increase in the week, 1.74% maximum amplitude in the week, 14.94% rise in price and 24.14% decrease over the previous year.
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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market has been boosting strongly. Last weekend, the high price of the external market boosted the offer. The increase of Huajin Pipeline Transport in North China led to the decrease of export. In addition, the high price of the external market sustained the increase of Sinopec’s supply price, and the market rose rapidly. During the week, due to the parking downstream of Qixiang and the increase of export in Fushun, the spot supply in North China was abundant, but the spot supply in East China was scarce. Some high-priced goods in North China were influxed and supplemented, and the spot market was high. Although the downstream synthetic rubber market has limited follow-up, and some just need high-price inquiry intention is not high, but there is no low-price supply in the market, some just need passive high-price replenishment. In terms of price, the delivery price of high-grade products in Shandong is 10700 yuan/ton, and the quotation in East China refers to 11000 yuan/ton, which is up 400-500 yuan/ton annually.
Enterprises: Sinopec East China and South China butadiene prices increased 300 yuan/ton to 1050-10600 yuan/ton; Liaotong Chemical Industry 130 tons of supply bidding for export, the base price increased 500 yuan/ton to 1020 yuan/ton, the trading range was 10210-10380 yuan/ton, the total volume in a week was only 130 tons; Fushun Petrochemical surplus was exported, the closing Wednesday trading range was in the closing Wednesday trading range. 9950-9960 yuan/ton, with a total turnover volume of 1050 tons in the cycle; Nanjing Chengzhi supplies Baling Petrochemical Company with part of its supply, and the plant is scheduled to stop for maintenance from September 1 to 7; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s listing price is increased by 300 yuan/ton to 10500 yuan/ton, with actual single negotiation; Zibo Qixiang Shun-Butadiene Rubber Plant is parked within the week, butadiene is sold out entirely, and the price is raised by itself. Refer to 10600 yuan/ton.
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Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, domestic butadiene-styrene plant start-up load of 4.8% this week, mainly due to Bridgestone and Nantong Shenhua plant shutdown: Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuguo chemical styrene-butadiene rubber plant continue to stop; Jihua styrene-butadiene plant two-line operation and production; Zhejiang Weitai, Yangtze stone The chemical butadiene-styrene plant runs on the first line, the Shenhua Chemical Short Stop Overhaul, the Lanzhou Petrochemical butadiene-styrene plant runs on two lines, the Fushun Petrochemical Company maintains the low-load operation of the fourth line, the Bridgestone butadiene-styrene plant stops for a short time and disappears, and the Qilu Petrochemical butadiene-styrene plant Ru
Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, domestic high cis-butadiene rubber factory prices have been rising, the mainstream increase is 200 yuan/ton; domestic high cis-butadiene rubber mainstream factory prices rose to 1082-11000 yuan/ton range. The start-up rate of domestic high Shun cis-butadiene rubber plant is only around 45%, while Qixiang Tengda Shun-butadiene plant stops, and Dushanzi and Lande Shun-butadiene plant continue to stop and repair, so the start-up rate is still relatively low in the cycle.
3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, the external market is high, domestic manufacturers and tank yard inventory is low, and East China spot is partial. On the short side, the downstream rubber market has limited follow-up, high-price transactions are difficult to release, synthetic rubber profit pressure, overall load is expected to decline. Short-term sustained high prices boost the enthusiasm of downstream warehouse replenishment. Domestic and foreign manufacturers have good shipments and shortage of spot resources in East China. Although the current high prices are difficult to sustain volume trading, and the downstream synthetic rubber market is not strong enough to keep pace with the rise, in the short term, domestic supply still has some support, and manufacturers have low inventories to supply it. Price has obvious support, the market has no low-price supply replenishment expectations, business community butadiene analysts expect that next week the domestic butadiene market high finishing, it is recommended to pay attention to manufacturers’prices and volume.
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