I. price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continues to decline. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2146 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2058 yuan / ton. Within the week, the price dropped by 4.10%, 12.50% month on month and 37.80% year on year.
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II. Market analysis
Products: this week, the mainland and ports have dropped to varying degrees. The futures remained weak, the port inventory decreased slightly in the week, but it was still on the high side as a whole, the delivery speed was average, and the short-term high stock pressure continued. On the mainland side, part of the port’s goods flowed into Shandong and other places in the week, which to some extent suppressed the trend of the mainland market, and the downstream market was not good, and the goods received were limited. In addition, the mainland was abundant in supply, and more profits were sold in various regions. In addition, the price of natural gas in Southwest China has increased by 10%, and the decline range is limited under the support of cost. However, at present, the gas head enterprises are in a state of loss. In the later stage, some units may reduce the load / stop, but the overall stop time in 2019 may be lower than that in previous years.
In terms of freight: the domestic methanol freight increases by 10-30 yuan / ton in many places, 200-240 yuan / ton from the North Inner Mongolia line to the north of Shandong; 200-230 yuan / ton from the south line to the north of Shandong; 150-190 yuan / ton from Guanzhong to the north of Shandong, 140-170 yuan / ton from Guanzhong to the southwest of Shandong; 130-180 yuan / ton from Shanxi to the north of Shandong. The reference from Xinjiang to Lubei is 600 yuan / ton; the reference from Qinghai to Lubei is 450 yuan / ton; the reference from Ningxia to Lubei is 240-250 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: Recently, due to the parking of plate factories in Shandong formaldehyde market, the stock is high, the goods are not smooth, and the trend is weak. Among them, the price of Linyi and its surrounding areas is around 1000-1500 yuan / ton, the high-end price is in Zibo area, and the low-end price is below 1000 yuan / ton.
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Acetic acid: the domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable and firm. The price in Northwest China rose due to the decrease of enterprise inventory and the low price in the early stage. The Eastern market price is stable, the inventory of enterprises in North China is low, and the inventory of enterprises in East China is medium. At present, domestic demand and export negotiation are not good. Domestic downstream mainly digests long-term and early-stage low-priced goods. The price of export delivery is low, which makes negotiation difficult. The operators have different mentality and are cautious in operation.
DME: in the short term, the market of DME is stable and weak, and the downstream market is loose. The seller has a certain attitude of supporting the market, but the current market supply is high, which is expected to stabilize in a short term or in succession.
III. future forecast
Business club’s point of view: on the positive side, cost: it is reported that the recent natural gas price performance is strong, and the methanol cost support in southwest and other places is acceptable; local vehicles are reduced, the freight price is increased, and the arrival cost is increased. On the negative side, the external market: the price of the external market is low, and the imported goods impact the domestic market price; demand: at present, the downstream receiving atmosphere is limited, and the demand in some regions is poor; supply: the port inventory remains high, and the local inventory in the mainland has increased compared with last week, so the supply side is relatively abundant. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market may be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the near future, so it is necessary to pay attention to the change of vehicles on the site.
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