I. price trend
According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of November 19, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9680 yuan / ton, with a 1.68% increase on a month on month basis and a 8.68% decrease on a year-on-year basis.
| Sulfamic acid 99.50% |
II. Market analysis
Product: the golden nine silver ten is fleeting. In the first half of November, the market news was relatively calm, and the factory’s intention to support the market was high. In addition to the demand for PBT in the downstream, other overall demand was weak, and the focus of on-site negotiation was rigid and consolidated. However, after the BDO industry meeting, Xinjiang Meike first raised its listing price on Friday (11.15), and there was another wave of listing tide in the market. The main factories are releasing listing information one after another to unify market pricing. The listed factories include Xinjiang Meike, Shaanxi Shanhua, Inner Mongolia Dongyuan and Xinjiang Tunhe. There is no clear news before the deadline of other factories. As of November 18, the price of the mainstream bulk water supply in the East China market of BDO in China is 8900-9500 yuan / ton, which is hard to find at a low price.
In terms of market, the BDO market in North China is waiting to be sorted out, the listing information of the factory is released one after another, the downstream market is more cautious, and the focus of on-site transaction is temporarily stable. The BDO market in East China is in a stalemate and consolidation. Following the listing of Meike, other factories have released the listing news one after another. At present, the factory inventory is not under pressure, and the attitude of supporting the market continues. The downstream enters the market on demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The BDO market in South China has been operating steadily, the on-site starting load has been steadily increased, the price keeping intention of suppliers has been rising, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has been declining. Just in need of placing an order to make up the position, the on-site transaction center is higher.
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Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol prices of enterprises in the northwest and upper reaches of the mainland were firm at the beginning of the week, some of which were stopped in succession, and Shandong and North China also maintained a steady upward trend; however, futures prices fell overnight and then hit a new low, the port supply was difficult to digest, and there was still room for subsequent arrivals to increase, with obvious differences in market mentality in the early days. At present, the arbitrage window between the mainland and the port continues to close, and both traders and downstream stocks are not high. It is expected that the short-term market between the mainland and the port will continue the trend of differentiation, and the mainland will also present the trend of regional differentiation due to different demand, but the overall trend will remain weak.
Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market has been reduced regionally. At present, the shipment pressure in Inner Mongolia is increasing, but the current price is low, and the market wait-and-see is aggravated by the impact of cost. Some enterprises in Ningxia are down regulated, and the purchase price of sufficient goods in Shanxi is down regulated. It is expected that there will be a regional down regulation in domestic calcium carbide Market in the near future.
III. future forecast
On the whole, the cost side support is weak. Although the supply side support is weaker than that in the earlier stage, most of the main factories are listed at the same price at present. In addition, the inventory is not under pressure. The intention of the supplier to hold up the price this time is rising. The load of the downstream PBT factory is steadily increasing, and the demand side is supported to a certain extent, but the resistance to the manufacturer’s listing is high. BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will be strong, focusing on factory settlement and downstream demand changes.
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