1、 Price trend:
According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week declined. The weekend average price was 6300 yuan / ton, down 6.67% from 6750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 28.21% year on year.
2、 Market analysis:
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Product: this week, the market price trend of p-xylene in China dropped sharply. The domestic PX operation rate remained more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun unit was stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical unit was stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang unit was started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical Unit was stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong unit was full load, Qilushi The operation of the chemical plant is stable. The Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operates normally, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal. Due to the sharp decline of crude oil price, the domestic market price of p-xylene is low. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. The external price of PX falls sharply this week. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia is 717-719 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 737-739 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the drop of international crude oil price, the external price of PX falls sharply this week, and more than 40% of domestic products need to be imported , the decline of closing price of PX external market has a certain negative impact on the domestic market, and the price trend of domestic PX market has declined.
Industrial chain: the closing price of international crude oil dropped this week. As of 6 days, the US WTI crude oil futures market price was quoted at 50.95 US dollars / barrel, and Brent crude oil futures price was quoted at 54.93 US dollars / barrel. Overall, crude oil closed down sharply this week. During the outbreak of new coronavirus, China’s industrial activity slowed down and factory shutdown stopped hitting oil demand, Currie said. The magnitude of the demand shock seen is comparable to 08-09 (during the financial crisis). ” Unlike China’s SARS and other types of epidemics, the new coronavirus has caused many blockades in China. Goldman Sachs predicted that China’s crude oil demand would decrease by 2 to 3 million barrels per day, which is likely to be the same as that in 2008-09. The sharp decline of crude oil price is a negative impact of domestic chemical products, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is significantly lower. The price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches of this week declined by 1.78%. As of the end of the week, the price of PTA Market in East China was about 4600-4700 yuan. The new production capacity was put in before the festival, and the current operating rate remains high. During the Spring Festival, the accumulated inventory is obvious, the social inventory is nearly 30% higher than before the festival, and the light transaction price in the current market has fallen. At present, the downstream has not resumed work, and the logistics is limited, so the industry is limited The chain transportation is not smooth, resulting in the accumulation of inventory, the end textile order production is affected, PTA downstream demand is even worse. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the market price trend of p-xylene is declining.
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Industry: this week, the textile industry started work in general. In addition, transportation difficulties during the epidemic period, crude oil prices remained low, and the market price of p-xylene fell.
3、 Future forecast:
Chen Ling, an PX analyst at the business club, thinks that the recent low crude oil price is mainly volatile, and the PTA market price has not changed much, so it is difficult for the external price of PX to rise. The operating rate of the downstream textile industry remains low, and the domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain the level of 6300 yuan / ton next week.
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