1、 Price trend:
In February 2020, the crude benzene market fell in shock. The factory price in North China was 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4231.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 9.96% monthly.
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On February 27, crude benzene commodity index was 66.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.73% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 68.84% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Market analysis:
Domestic market: in February 2020, crude benzol Market “U” trend. In the middle of the year, due to the low start-up of coking enterprises and the restrictions of on-site transportation, some coking enterprises are reluctant to sell. Downstream hydrogenated benzol enterprises have resumed to start construction one after another, and the on-site operating rate has increased by about 10%, the demand for crude benzol has further increased, and the price of crude benzol has rebounded significantly under multiple favorable effects, with an increase of 300-500 yuan /However, the price of hydrogenated benzene has only increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is too high, and the demand for crude benzene is slowing down. In addition, the price of pure benzene on the outside market is low, the port inventory is high, the price of crude benzene is stable at the end of the month, and the manufacturer has not made a big adjustment to the bidding price.
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Industry chain: in terms of crude oil: this week, the crude oil changed the form of continuous increase last week, falling for four consecutive days, and WTI fell to the lowest point of this year. The spread of the epidemic in many countries has led to increased market worries and a pressure drop in oil prices. Brent was down 10.76% and WTI was down 11.41% compared with February 21.. Pure benzene: this week, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene was weak, crude oil and external market fell, and the support under pure benzene was insufficient. The lack of downstream shipping power and inventory accumulation further worsened the confidence of pure benzene market participants. On Wednesday, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 5350 yuan / ton. Downstream: demand for downstream styrene is not strong, and inventory pressure is high. Friday’s price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 1.01% from last week.
3、 Trend Forecast:
Coking enterprises have low start-up, crude benzene supply has declined, downstream hydrobenzene enterprises have greater cost pressure at present, downstream pure benzene enterprises have low start-up, crude benzene market is difficult to have a good support, it is expected that the crude benzene market volatility is limited in the short term.
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