1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. On March 11, the price of pure benzene was 8400-9000 yuan / ton (the average price was 8840 yuan / ton). On Friday (March 18), the price of pure benzene was 7800-8250 yuan / ton (the average price was 8120 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 720 yuan / ton or 8.14% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 24.16%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Affected by the decline of crude oil and the wide-ranging shock of Asian pure benzene in the outer disk, the cost support of pure benzene is unstable, superimposed with the weak follow-up of high priced pure benzene in the downstream and weak demand. Pure benzene fell with crude oil this week. Public health incidents in many places in China have affected transportation, limited factory shipments and inventory accumulation. In order to promote shipments, local refining enterprises in Shandong have continuously reduced prices. Although crude oil fell broadly, the price is still high, the cost pressure is prominent, and the operating rate of pure benzene decreased this week.
This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene twice, a total of 700 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton.
| Sulfamic acid 99.50% |
On the external market, Asian pure benzene rebounded after a wide decline in the external market this week. On Thursday (March 17), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1131 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $77 / ton, or 6.37%; The reference import price in East China was US $1152.5/t, with a year-on-year decrease of US $87.5/t, or 7.06%.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil rebounded broadly in a single day after falling continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, although the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, the supply concerns eased. In addition, the market was worried that the excessively rising oil price would affect the demand and economy, and the oil price continued to decline. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil production may decrease by 3 million barrels / day from April. Concerns about reduced supply have boosted the broad rebound of international oil prices in a single day. As of March 18, Brent fell $4.74 / barrel, or 4.21%; WTI fell $4.63/barrel, or 4.23%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene fell continuously and broadly this week. The price was 10000 yuan / ton on March 11 and 9020 yuan / ton on March 18, down 9.8% from last week and up 5.29% from the same period last year.
Aniline: the domestic aniline Market was mainly weak and stable this week. The wide range of cost support weakened, and the downstream remained rigid, which needs to be followed up. In terms of supply, during the restart of Jinling aniline plant, Huatai aniline plant operated at reduced load. The support is acceptable, and the price is weak to maintain stability. On March 18, the price in Shandong was 12500-12800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and decreased by 11.4% compared with the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
| Sulfamic acid |
In terms of crude oil, there is still uncertainty about the future trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of oil price rise still exists, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: at present, the spot supply of styrene is relatively abundant. The downstream mainly focuses on digestion contracts, and the spot transaction is weakened. The short-term probability of styrene continues to follow the trend of crude oil.
Under the current geopolitical situation, the trend of crude oil fluctuates violently and is full of uncertainty. It is difficult for pure benzene to get rid of the influence of crude oil in the short term. Domestically, under the influence of cost pressure, the operating rate of pure benzene may still decline; Public health incidents continue to affect logistics and transportation, short-term pure benzene long short game. Pay attention to the downstream market, device dynamics, domestic pure benzene device dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.