1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the price of pure benzene continued to weaken this week. On July 1, the price of pure benzene was 9250-9600 yuan / ton (average price 9509 yuan / ton), and on Friday (July 8), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9550 yuan / ton (average price 9267 yuan / ton). The average price fell by 2.54% compared with last week and increased by 7.38% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil during the week, bulk commodities weakened collectively; Pure benzene in Asia fell continuously, with bad external news; Coupled with general domestic buying, the price of pure benzene fell.
This week, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 9300 yuan / ton (Hebei and Shandong reduced the price of pure benzene to 9150 yuan / ton).
In the external market, Asian pure benzene fell broadly this week. On Thursday (July 7), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1125 / ton, down $131 / ton year-on-year, or 10.43%; The reference import price in East China was US $1162 / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of US $90 / ton, or 7.19%.
In terms of crude oil, the market’s concern about the global economic recession increased, leading to a sharp fall in international oil prices, and WTI oil prices fell below $100 a barrel. However, the inventory of refined oil products in the United States fell, and the increase in demand led to a rebound in oil prices. As of July 8, Brent’s price fell by $4.61 per barrel, or 4.13%, this week compared with last week; WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, or 3.36%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene rose slightly this week. The price was 10529 yuan / ton on July 1 and 10550 yuan / ton on July 8, up 0.2% from last week and 11.94% from the same period last year. Affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices, the cost side is difficult to support the styrene market. However, the arrival of styrene in Hong Kong and the low inventory of enterprises limit its decline. The styrene market is generally traded, and the spot price fluctuates slightly.
Aniline: aniline rose slightly this week. On July 8, the price in Shandong was 11800-12000 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from last week and 17.65% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, the long short game of crude oil is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the recent international crude oil market callback, styrene social inventory is low, and there are few negotiable sources of goods. It is expected that styrene will fluctuate with the raw material level.
The decline in the price of pure benzene led to an increase in downstream buying, and it is expected that the short-term weakness of pure benzene will fluctuate. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.
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