In November, the price of domestic locally refined petroleum coke rose first and then fell

1、 Price data


sulphamic acid

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in November was 3739.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3564.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 175 yuan/ton, or 4.68%.


On November 30, the petroleum coke commodity index was 277.20, 4.86 points lower than yesterday, 32.18% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 314.41% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)


2、 Analysis of influencing factors


In November, the price of petroleum coke for local refining fell after rising. In the first ten days of this year, downstream carbon enterprises were more active in purchasing. The inventory of petroleum coke for local refining enterprises was low, and the price of petroleum coke rose; In the last ten days, the national logistics and transportation were blocked, the petroleum coke market was fully supplied, the local refining enterprises had high inventories, and the downstream had a strong wait-and-see mood. The price of petroleum coke continued to decline.


In November, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices.


The calcined coke market was basically stable in November; The market price of metal silicon fell. As of November 30, the price was 20250.00 yuan/ton; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market rose in shock. As of November 30, the price was 18983.33 yuan/ton; At present, downstream carbon enterprises purchase on demand and mainly wait and see.


3、 Future market forecast


The oil coke analyst of the business agency predicted that: the international crude oil shocks and declines in November, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; At present, the logistics transportation across the country is blocked, and the petroleum coke market is fully supplied. The local refining enterprises have high inventories. At the end of the month, the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will continue to decline in the near future.