Increased probability of sideways shocks in the future market of ethylene glycol

Overview of glycol market

In February, the price of ethylene glycol fell first and then rose, which is relatively stable at present. According to the data of Business News Agency, on February 28, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4308.33 yuan/ton, down 2.27% from the average market price of 4408.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On February 28, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 4200-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4300 yuan/ton, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in central China is 4030 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the North China market is basically stable, and the spot price of mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4300-4400 yuan/ton.

Increased probability of sideways shocks in the future market of ethylene glycol

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is around 4300 yuan/ton, and the crude oil trend is weak in the second half of this month. However, the prices of ethylene and naphtha upstream of ethylene glycol are good, and the overall performance of coal prices is good. At present, the cost-side support is strong. Ethylene glycol is at the negative profit level, the impact factor of cost is expanding, and the downward space is narrowing.

However, according to the inventory data, it is still at a relatively high level in the same period of one million tons equivalent. High inventory in the main port in the short term suppresses the amount of ethylene glycol. Fortunately, there is a strong expectation that supply will weaken and demand will improve in the near future, and prices will improve. It is expected that in the short term, the probability of sideways shocks of ethylene glycol will increase, and the average price will be around 4350 yuan/ton.