According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of the mainstream domestic urea market fell in May due to shocks: the price of urea fell from 2613.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2401.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 8.13%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 24.98% year-on-year.
On May 30th, the urea commodity index was 111.69, an increase of 0.12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.68% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 100.88% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)
From the supply side, the price of domestic urea mainstream market fell sharply in May.
Cost side: Liquefied natural gas significantly decreases
Price details of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) in January
May 1st/ May 15th/ May 30th
Yangquan: 1260 yuan/ton, 1160 yuan/ton, 1160 yuan/ton
In May, the price of liquefied natural gas significantly decreased, dropping from 4416.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3728.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 15.58%, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.26% in the end of the month. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing in quick) fell slightly, from 1260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1160 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 100 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated and fell, dropping from 3233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.22%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 43.64% year-on-year. Overall, there has been a significant decline in upstream urea products and insufficient cost support.
On the demand side: The price of melamine has slightly decreased
From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, and normal operation of composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises
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