According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, in April, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a continuous weak downward trend, with the center of gravity of organic silicon DMC continuously declining. On April 1st, the price of organic silicon DMC participated in 15260 yuan/ton, and on April 30th, the price of organic silicon DMC referenced 13500 yuan/ton. In April, the decline of organic silicon DMC reached 11.53%.
According to the market analysis system of Shengyishe Organic Silicon DMC from the beginning of the year to the present, it can be seen that the domestic organic silicon DMC market experienced an upward trend from January to March in the first quarter, but the good times did not last long. Starting from mid to late March, the high market price of organic silicon DMC began to decline, and throughout April, the market price of organic silicon DMC continued to approach the low level. On April 30th, the price of organic silicon DMC was at its lowest level in 2024, which had already swallowed up the market surge of organic silicon DMC in the first quarter. From the annual comparison chart of organic silicon DMC, it can be seen that the current market price of organic silicon DMC has dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years.
The influencing factors of the decline in the organic silicon DMC market in April:
In April, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC was weak, with downstream users mainly digesting early raw materials. New orders on the market were weak, and the market inquiry atmosphere was insufficient, making it difficult for the demand side to provide effective support for organic silicon DMC. In late April, although some organic silicon DMC devices were shut down for maintenance, the overall operating rate of the organic silicon DMC site decreased. However, due to slow demand transmission, the overall on-site supply of organic silicon DMC remained loose, and there was overall supply pressure in the market. The support provided by the supply side to the market also showed signs of fatigue.
Can the organic silicon DMC market see a turning point in May?
After Labor Day, the silicone DMC market also entered May. Firstly, let’s take a look at the market performance of organic silicon DMC on the first day of operation after Labor Day. On the first day of operation, Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC maintained a stable pre holiday quotation, with a price reference of around 13200 yuan/ton. Other factories also closely followed in the footsteps of large factories, maintaining a stable pre holiday quotation. On May 6th, the market price of organic silicon DMC was set at 13200-14000 yuan/ton.
In terms of commencement: In April, some organic silicon DMC shutdown and maintenance facilities will gradually resume and restart in May. It is expected that the decline in organic silicon DMC production in May will be lower than expected, and coupled with the input of some new production capacity, the operating rate of organic silicon DMC plants is likely to increase instead of decrease in May. The increase in operating rate will also increase the supply pressure on organic silicon DMC factories, so the game between supply and demand of organic silicon DMC still exists in May.
In terms of demand: At the end of April, there was a small-scale bottoming and stocking of organic silicon DMC downstream, but the overall wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream remained, and the overall pre holiday stocking was lower than expected. After entering May, the overall pre order volume of the organic silicon DMC factory is limited. Due to the potential growth impact from the supply side, organic silicon DMC operators are concerned about the continued intensification of supply and demand contradictions, and the downstream bottom buying sentiment of organic silicon DMC is poor. Therefore, currently, there has been no significant boost in downstream demand for organic silicon DMC, and factories actively shipping to drive downstream demand will still dominate.
In terms of supply: Affected by the increase in production, the overall supply pressure of organic silicon DMC will still exist in May. However, although the supply pressure does not decrease, the current market price of organic silicon DMC has dropped to a low point, with some regions having low prices close to 13000 yuan/ton. Therefore, factories are not willing to continue adjusting prices downwards. It is expected that in May, the control of supply side inventory and timely regulation of production and load reduction in the organic silicon DMC market will be more important.
Technical aspect: Organic silicon DMC is at a low level, and there is still a narrow downward risk in May
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the current market price of organic silicon DMC is at a one-year low, a two-year low, and a three-year low.
Starting from April, the organic silicon DMC 7-day moving average and 30 day moving average started a downward trend at the same time. At the end of April, although the organic silicon DMC 7-day moving average performed steadily, the 30 day moving average was still in a downward trend. Therefore, according to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the probability of a change in the operating trend (i.e. the 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) in the next 7 days is not high.
In summary, the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that as we enter May, the overall supply-demand contradiction in the organic silicon DMC market still exists, and the pressure on the supply side remains unchanged. The boosting of the demand side is unknown, and the regulation between supply and demand needs to be observed. Therefore, there is still a downward risk in the organic silicon DMC market in May. However, facing the current almost bottoming out price, the probability of a significant decline in organic silicon DMC is small, and the market focus is likely to narrow downward adjustment, with an estimated adjustment range of around 100-200 yuan/ton.
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