In early September, the market price of epichlorohydrin was rapidly pushed up due to the unexpected parking of a large factory. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong has soared to 13000 yuan/ton, setting a new high for the year. Starting from mid month, the market price of epichlorohydrin entered a high and falling channel, and the price remained stable at the end of the month. As of September 30th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.17% from the beginning of the month.
Price influencing factors:
On the raw material side: In the first half of September, the glycerol market price showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by factors such as tight supply, high external demand, and downstream demand recovery. Acrylic exhibits oscillatory operation. The trend of propylene has declined in the second half of the month. Overall, the raw material side briefly supported the cost of epichlorohydrin, and the price of epichlorohydrin fell from a high level in the second half of the month. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6598.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In early September, epoxy chloropropane was unexpectedly shut down by a large factory, which led to a more positive sentiment among suppliers. In addition, the 100000 tons/year glycerol process plant in Zibo will be shut down on August 31st, and the restart time will be notified separately; Hubei, Hebei, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other facilities are still in a parked state; The 100000 ton/year glycerol process plant in Quzhou will shut down in the morning of September 4th, and the restart time will be notified separately; In addition, some devices are parked for a long time. The tight supply side has affected the price increase of epichlorohydrin. Starting from mid month, the profit margins of epoxy chloropropane enterprises with different processes continued to expand, and production enthusiasm increased, leading to a rapid increase in market supply. In the second half of the month, the price of epoxy chloropropane fell from a high level.
On the demand side: In September, due to the unexpected shutdown of a large epoxy chloropropane factory, prices skyrocketed. Downstream epoxy resins showed strong resistance to high raw material costs, resulting in poor shipments for enterprises. Most companies were cautious and cautious, and the trading atmosphere was relatively average. The price of epichlorohydrin has fallen rapidly. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the prices of glycerol and propylene on the cost side have limited support for epichlorohydrin, and the tight situation on the supply side has also been alleviated to some extent. Downstream demand is limited in the short term due to the mentality of buying up instead of buying down. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.
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