Insufficient support for cost demand, PTA prices will weaken

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first falling and then rising this week (November 10-14). As of November 14, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4671 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from the beginning of the week.
In the international crude oil market, as of November 13th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the January Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.01 per barrel. Further follow-up is needed to address the degree of oversupply in the crude oil market, which is the core factor driving the direction of oil prices. Currently, global inventories are accumulating further, and if there continues to be unexpected accumulation, the future of oil prices is expected to continue to shift downward in the tug of war.
In terms of PTA supply, the overall domestic production has slightly decreased, and the industry operating rate is around 76%. There is a maintenance plan for the facilities in East China next week, while other facilities will remain stable and production will slightly decrease.
The downstream polyester industry’s load has narrowly declined to 87%, even though the domestic polyester industry’s storage capacity has increased during the week. Therefore, the supply reduction of the polyester industry is greater than the increase. We mainly rely on essential procurement and lack sustained replenishment motivation, resulting in a return to daily light production and sales. Terminal weaving, with the cooling and digestion, the overall order has not yet shown actual repair performance, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
Business analysts believe that PTA supply will remain tight in the short term, while demand will remain stable. Terminal demand is starting to decline, procurement enthusiasm is hindered, and the focus of crude oil is shifting downwards. It is expected that PTA market prices will weaken.