According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level in April 2026, with an average price of 16575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16615 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.24%.
On April 28th, the Business Society Lead Index was 101.06, a decrease of 0.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.59% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (November 29, 2016), and an increase of 35.41% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In April, the domestic price of 1 # lead ingots showed a trend of rising and falling, with an overall narrow range oscillation pattern.
The supply side is showing a moderate expansion trend.
In the field of primary lead, smelters that underwent previous maintenance in Henan and Hunan regions have resumed production one after another, while Yunnan refineries have maintained stable and orderly production. The weekly operating rate of primary lead has increased to over 64% month on month, indicating a stable overall supply. The processing fee for domestically produced lead concentrate remains stable. Although the tight supply and demand situation in the mining sector has not changed, the benefits brought by the rising prices of by-products such as sulfuric acid and silver have effectively stimulated the production enthusiasm of smelters.
In terms of recycled lead, there is a complex situation where “production reduction expectations” and “production recovery” are intertwined. After the drop in lead prices, waste battery recyclers held onto their stocks and waited for an increase, causing a temporary reversal in profits from recycled lead smelting. Some small and medium-sized factories were forced to reduce production. However, the tight supply of waste battery raw materials at the end of the month has eased, reducing smelting losses and driving the weekly operating rate of recycled lead to a rebound. However, constrained by the shortage of raw materials, the recycled lead industry as a whole is hovering around the breakeven point, making it difficult to return to a state of significant profitability, and the recovery process of production is slow.
demand side
April coincides with the traditional off-season for consumption, and the overall demand side is weak. The market demand for replacing starting batteries for electric bicycles and cars is sluggish, and dealers have accumulated inventory, resulting in significant pressure to reduce inventory. Purchasing attitudes are cautious. Battery companies generally adopt the strategy of “production based on sales and procurement according to demand”, only replenishing lead ingots for essential needs, with extremely low acceptance of high priced sources. It is expected that the replenishment efforts before May Day will also be very limited.
Inventory end
The social inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years; LME inventory has fallen to a high of 294000 tons, and global inventory pressure has not fully eased.
comprehensive summary
The overall technical aspect presents the characteristics of “weak rebound, top building and decline”. The short-term upward movement of the moving average system at the beginning of the month can quickly decline due to the inability of fundamentals to support it; The double dead cross of the moving average and the return of the price to below the suppression zone indicate that the previous golden cross signal has been falsified, and selling pressure dominates. The current high degree of adhesion and weak directionality of the moving average system is usually a manifestation of market long short equilibrium but unclear trend direction, indicating that prices are difficult to break out of the range and emerge from the trend market, and are likely to continue the range oscillation pattern.
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