This week, there has been an increase in supply in the northern region, while downstream users are resistant to high raw material prices, and buying is mainly wait-and-see. Market negotiations have fallen from high levels. As of August 14th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 12000-12200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 11700-11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250-350 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Partial supply relief:
During the week, the 260000 ton/year plant of Lihua Yilijin Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was restarted and resumed, with an increase in supply from the north. At the same time, downstream users were resistant to high raw material prices, and buying was mainly wait-and-see. Market negotiations fell from high levels; However, the East China region is still tight, and the supply is still limited in the short term, which restricts the downward trend of the market. The price difference between the North and South markets is gradually widening again. According to statistics, this week (August 7-13), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 69.32%, an increase of 2.76% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 80900 tons, which is+0.32 million tons compared to the previous cycle. Although the supply side has recovered, the overall situation is still limited, and there is no pressure on the inventory of various enterprises in the short term. As of August 12th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories is about 33000 tons, which is the same as last week.
Downstream demand decline:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has decreased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 60.70%, a decrease of -0.20% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry is 53.47%, which is -2.70% compared to last week. The Hebei Aikerui acrylic fiber plant under Jilin Chemical Fiber has been shut down for 20 days for maintenance; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 50.54%, which is 3.23% higher than last week. Henan Zhengjia has shut down for maintenance; The overall downstream demand has decreased.
Rising raw material costs:
During the week, the cost of raw materials increased significantly, while at the same time, the price of acrylonitrile fell from a high level, resulting in a decrease in theoretical production profits. According to statistics, as of August 14th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was based on 8500-8650 yuan/ton, with an average price of 8675 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 10675 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 4.64%. The average production profit is 1516 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -501 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast:
At present, major factories in East China are maintaining low load operation, but Tianchen Qixiang and Sirbond facilities are planned to restart in the latter half of the year, and there are still expectations of gradual relief in the supply side; From the demand side, downstream industries such as acrylic fiber have seen profit compression, and some companies have adopted production restrictions or parking measures, showing obvious resistance to high raw material prices and low buying enthusiasm. Therefore, the market will continue to decline, but the overall downward trend is still relatively slow. In addition, it is still necessary to pay attention to supply side variables, as supply remains the direct factor driving price trends.
| http://www.sulfamic-acid.com |