In late September, the domestic PS market fluctuated, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating. As of September 24th, the benchmark price of PS was 11083.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.48% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost factor: Due to the tense situation between the Middle East, the United States, and Iran in the early stage, the shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz has increased, and the market is concerned about international crude oil supply, resulting in a rapid return of geopolitical premiums for oil prices. Recently, the Iranian President will attend a meeting in the United States on September 22. US President Trump publicly expressed his willingness to meet with the Iranian President, and Iran has conveyed clear conditions for resuming negotiations to the mediator, marking a substantial diplomatic breakthrough signal in the ongoing US Iran confrontation. The focus of market trading has shifted from “supply interruption panic” to “situation cooling and supply recovery”. The remote cost rebound has dragged the styrene market to weaken, and it is expected that the short-term trend of the styrene market will be weak, which will weaken the support for PS.
Supply and demand level: Since September, the operating rate of the domestic PS industry has been consistently low, and some equipment maintenance is still gradually underway. Currently, the overall load in China is less than 40%. The inventory location is controllable, but the supply in some areas is tight. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, and merchants are trying to overcharge. But currently, the traditional peak season signal is not strong, and downstream product factories such as electrical appliances and packaging are slow to digest. In addition, the high temperature weather continues, and terminal enterprises still have expectations of reduced production, resulting in low operating rates and weak demand for goods in the market. Currently, PS is still in a phase of weak supply and demand.
Future forecast
In late September, the domestic PS market fluctuated at a high level. The production load of the aggregation plant has decreased at a low level, and consumer demand is average. Analysts believe that the decline in remote raw material crude oil has dragged down various upstream raw materials in the industry chain. Affected by the rapid rebound of cost value, PS spot prices may come under pressure. Combined with the resistance of downstream buyers to high priced goods, it is expected that the PS market will enter a volatile and weak trend in the short term
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