First, the price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of September 27, the average domestic methanol market price was 3,273 yuan / ton, the overall market conditions rose and fell between regions, the price increased by 19.39% over the same period last year.
Second, the market analysis
Products: The domestic methanol market continues the regional market, both ups and downs are reflected. Among them, the port was down by the sharp decline in futures, with a decrease of 30-70 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the import and arrival of goods was relatively concentrated, and it is necessary to pay attention to the expected changes in inventory in recent days. The market in each region of the Mainland is adjusted accordingly according to its own supply and demand. For example, after the price cut in Guanzhong, the shipments have improved, the demand for storage in Inner Mongolia has been slightly lowered, the replenishment in Shandong has increased, and the supply and demand in the southwest has been rising and falling. The situation of mutual emergence; and the tight transportation capacity before and after the holiday, it is expected that the short-term market will continue to be differentiated. On September 25, the central bank issued a notice saying that taking into account the fiscal expenditure at the end of the quarter and the withdrawal of statutory deposit reserves by financial institutions may partially hedge the impact of the central bank’s reverse repurchase and government bond issuance, etc., in order to maintain the flow of the banking system. The reason was reasonable and sufficient. On the same day, the People’s Bank of China launched a 60 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding.
Industry chain: Formaldehyde: Shandong formaldehyde trading atmosphere appears in general, the market just needs to be shipped mainly; now formaldehyde is more volatile with raw material methanol market. At present, Linyi area concentrates 1,600 yuan / ton; Zibo and surrounding areas are 1620-1680 yuan / ton, slightly higher turnover. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market has risen sharply. The market continued to be tight, and some enterprises had difficulty in submitting orders, and there was a large supply gap. And some devices still have maintenance plans in the later period. Therefore, short-term stock-outs are difficult to alleviate. Therefore, the supplier is reluctant to sell and limited sales, and the offer has been raised significantly. DME: end-user every rose centralized procurement market, the DME market once again showing short supply situation, the overall domestic cumulative increase 50-150 yuan / ton, the mainstream short-term trend is expected to continue.
Third, the market outlook
On the positive side, domestic supply: the fourth quarter coking production limit, natural gas supply and other news support, and the northwest part of the equipment is still under maintenance, local supply is acceptable; foreign supply: international local methanol plant operating load, such as Southeast Asia, Russia, In addition, some installations in Indonesia still have maintenance plans, and the international supply pressure is not large. Transportation: Before and after the two festivals, the capacity of domestic transportation is tight, and the freight rate will be relatively high, which will support the cost of the land. End: In the winter, the natural gas supply factor is affected, and the local industrial gas price is raised. The cost of the gas project in Sichuan and Chongqing has increased from the previous period. Negative, traditional demand: Under environmental supervision, the downstream plate production in Shandong and Hebei areas is limited, affecting the demand for formaldehyde resources, and the raw materials are relatively high, and some downstream cost pressures remain; emerging demand: since mid-September, Henan The MTO projects in Shandong and the northwest have been slightly reduced, which is unfavorable for the digestion of local raw materials. At present, the industry starts to fall below 70% and needs to be closely watched; futures: futures with thread, PP and plastics are falling simultaneously, the players The mentality is formed with a certain pressure;Supply side: At present, some maintenance projects in Henan and Shandong have resumed work, focusing on the impact of subsequent incremental impacts in the corresponding areas; in addition, the current new methanol projects in Iran and the United States have been put into production, and it is necessary to closely monitor the impact of subsequent inflows into domestic increments/extrusion; Holiday factors: Near the eleventh holiday, based on the tight transportation capacity and the end of the stocking, the demand for lowering the local mainland enterprises, such as Guanzhong and Inner Mongolia. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that the methanol market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.