China’s domestic methanol market showed a high trend on January 10

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 10, the average price of methanol in domestic market was 2288 yuan/ton. The overall market area was adjusted, and the price fell 33.70% compared with the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: China’s methanol market continued to rise. Trading in Northwest China is good and the market is strong. Goods around Bohai Sea and Central China are still good and rising steadily. Trading in Huaihai has improved with a slight increase. Futures are tidied up, and the port market has risen accordingly. Enterprises in Northwest China are still able to deliver goods. Some enterprises have stopped selling, and some of them have delivered more than planned. The mentality of manufacturers is firm. The demand for inventory and replenishment in some parts of the Mainland, together with the recent trend of futures, supports the mindset of the traders, and the overall turnover of the market is stable and the atmosphere is acceptable. On the port side, futures opened high, spot quotation was firm, buying cautiously, negotiation was general, and overall spot volume was flat.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the weather turned cold, downstream slabs started to decline, the demand for formaldehyde was light; raw material methanol rebounded recently, cost support is still acceptable, Shandong formaldehyde finishing wait-and-see trend. Now Linyi is around 1050-1060 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas around 1200-1300 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market has fallen sharply. The downstream acetate, chloroacetic acid and vinyl acetate are not good, and the intention of pre-season stock is general. The local storage pressure of acetic acid enterprises is slightly obvious, and considering the Spring Festival holidays, the enterprises have a higher intention to arrange goods within a week, so the local real unit price is lower in a day. However, the recent performance of methanol raw material, acetic acid profits continue to compress, so acetic acid is expected to continue downward space is limited. Dimethyl ether: The market supply is still tight, the overall inventory of enterprises is controllable, the short-term mentality is still strong, and the short-term domestic mainstream price trend of dimethyl ether is still bullish.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, the raw material side: although natural gas in the northern heating season has not been expected to be tense in recent years, the seasonal supply and demand situation from coal, natural gas and other energy sources still has some support; Freight: Freight has been rising continuously in some areas in recent years, coupled with rain and snow weather in some parts of the country, transportation constraints, transportation costs in some areas have increased; Inventory: by the holiday bureau. Due to the tight influence of shipping closure and storage capacity, the overall unloading speed is slower, the inventory of East China Port is reduced, and the arrival of ship cargo in Ningbo area is delayed due to the influence of earlier closure, and the saleable volume is greatly reduced. On the short side, the external market: the recent external market negotiations are still weak and prices remain low, especially in Europe, where prices continue to decline slightly, and the pace of delivery in Iran needs to be paid attention to; demand: the current domestic environmental protection constraints, coupled with the traditional off-season in winter, the downstream industry still shows poor start, the digestion of methanol at the raw material end is normal; supply: recent Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Shanxi Parking and load reduction devices in other places are mostly restored. The supply of methanol resources in some areas has been enlarged, and the supply of methanol in the main production areas has shown an increasing trend. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that crude oil is on a good trend in the near future, and the domestic methanol market is on the strong side in the short term. Later, we still need to pay attention to domestic methanol plant restart, downstream delivery, port inventory, freight situation and futures trend, and suggest cautious operation.

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