The price center of the adhesive short fiber market will shift downwards in the first quarter of 2025. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the average price of the domestic adhesive short fiber market was 13600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton or 1.59% from the beginning of January.
Price trend in the first quarter
At the beginning of the season, although the main raw material dissolution slurry market was running smoothly and the inventory of the adhesive short fiber industry was not high, the demand in the end market was weak, and downstream yarn factories had limited new orders. Negative factors dominated the market, and adhesive short fiber manufacturers lowered their quotations one after another. The new round of order volume in the market remained until February, and subsequent adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly delivered orders, resulting in a continued weak and stable trend in market prices.
Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, the auxiliary materials sulfuric acid market and liquid alkali market continued to rise in price, with good cost support. Various adhesive short fiber manufacturers increased their delivery speed before the holiday, causing inventory levels to decline to a low level. The supply side performed well, and downstream yarn factories resumed work one after another, with expectations of increased demand for adhesive short fibers. Industry players have a strong sentiment of raising prices, and there has been an increase in high priced goods in the market. After a narrow rise in adhesive short fiber market prices, stable operation has been maintained.
Until mid March, due to the continuous decline of the main raw material dissolution slurry market in the first quarter, the cost side support was weak, and downstream yarn manufacturers had insufficient new orders after the year, slowing down the speed of raw material delivery. The overall inventory level of adhesive short fibers continued to increase, and the actual focus of market negotiations shifted downwards, with weak consolidation as the main trend.
Supply and demand analysis
In the first quarter of 2025, the operating load of adhesive short fiber market facilities in Xinjiang will gradually increase, adhesive short fiber facilities in Shandong will resume full load operation, and a factory in Jiangsu will expand production of adhesive short fiber facilities; However, another adhesive short fiber factory in Jiangsu province stopped for maintenance in late January and the equipment has not yet restarted. At the end of the season, some units in the factory underwent routine maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply compared to the previous quarter.
In the first quarter of 2025, the demand side of the adhesive short fiber market showed weak performance. At the beginning of the season, the market is in a traditional off-season for demand, and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. Downstream yarn factories are holding onto their essential needs and signing orders. The on-site stocking volume is as high as the end of February, but it has decreased compared to the same period last year; Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, cotton yarn manufacturers have resumed work one after another, but new orders from the end market are limited, resulting in poor shipments from yarn factories and reduced enthusiasm for purchasing adhesive short fibers. The signing volume in March was not ideal, and the demand side dragged down the market trend.
The increase in industry supply and sustained weak demand have led to a significant increase in overall market inventory.
Minor increase in costs
In the first quarter of 2025, the market price of domestically produced dissolving slurry will decline in a tiered manner, with an average price of 7748 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 1.63%; The price center of the liquid alkali market has risen, with an average price of 1044 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 5.14%; The market price of sulfuric acid has significantly increased, with an average price of 433 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 18.96%. Overall, the average production cost of viscose staple fiber has slightly increased, and the market price of viscose staple fiber continues to decline. The profitability of the viscose staple fiber industry is not optimistic.
Future forecast
On the cost side, there may be no significant fluctuations in industry supply, and the downstream adhesive short fiber market equipment start-up rate may remain high. However, the increase in inventory may reduce the purchase of raw materials, and the positive support from the demand side is limited. Therefore, it is expected that the dissolution slurry market prices will operate weakly and steadily in the second quarter.
Supply side: Some adhesive short fiber units in Shandong region have maintenance plans in mid April, while a certain adhesive short fiber manufacturer in Jiangsu region has expansion plans. The industry supply has both increased and decreased, and it is expected that there will be little change in market supply in the second quarter.
On the demand side: There is currently no significant increase in orders in the terminal market. In April, the tourist cotton yarn market may maintain the demand for signing orders. May and June are the transition period from the traditional peak season to the off-season, and the demand side is unlikely to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side in the adhesive short fiber market will be weak in the next quarter.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may have limited support, and the supply of adhesive short fiber market may remain high. There is no sign of improvement in downstream market demand, and industry players lack confidence in the future market. Business Society analysis predicts that the adhesive short fiber market prices will continue to operate weakly in the second quarter, with prices possibly experiencing a slight decline of 100-400 yuan/ton.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 9th, the price of isooctanol was 7600 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.94% compared to the price of 7750 yuan/ton on April 1st. Isooctanol enterprises have stable equipment operation and sufficient supply from isooctanol manufacturers; Plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low levels, and demand for isooctanol is weak. The downward pressure on isooctanol still exists, and the upward support is weakened.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 9th, the DOP price was 8192.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.16% from the April 1st DOP price of 8288.75 yuan/ton. The stable operation of DOP plasticizer enterprises, sufficient plasticizer production, weak downstream demand for plasticizers, falling plasticizer prices, weakened downstream demand support for isooctanol, and increased downward pressure on isooctanol.
Future expectations
The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that downstream demand is weak, isooctanol manufacturers are operating at high levels, isooctanol supply is sufficient, and isooctanol supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.

At the beginning of April, the domestic ABS market was consolidating and moving, with some spot prices of certain grades fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11225 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.44% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In April, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has decreased, and the overall load has decreased by 5% to around 68% compared to the end of March. The average weekly production has returned to below 130000 tons, but it is still at a high level. The inventory level of aggregation enterprises is above 190000 tons, and the supply of goods is still very abundant. At the end of March, petrochemical plant orders were slightly higher due to the impact of additional orders. However, buyers’ willingness to stock up is not high, and the increase in trading volume is rapidly cooling down, leading to a return to a relatively weak market atmosphere. Overall, the supply side supports fluctuations in ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: As we enter April, the trend of ABS upstream materials has collectively weakened, providing poor support for ABS costs. In terms of acrylonitrile, some units in East China and Shandong regions have reduced their load or undergone maintenance. At the same time, the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical’s acrylonitrile unit has not been fully released, resulting in a period of supply reduction. And after the early low price inventory reduction, the industry’s inventory pressure has been partially relieved. As a result, the domestic acrylonitrile market fluctuated and rose, providing conditions for market growth. However, considering that the overall supply is still abundant, the short-term market growth may still be limited.
The domestic butadiene market has shown a recent trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall downward trend. Due to the impact of the early holiday period, some downstream stocks fell and then replenished their positions, resulting in a concentrated market transaction. With some auction sources selling at a premium, the market trend has significantly shifted upwards. Although the supply side prices remained firm, the high-level trading in the later part of the week was somewhat deadlocked. At the same time, the news of the US tariffs affected the decline of futures, and the news affected downstream buyers to be cautious. After short-term fluctuations, the market saw a significant decline in prices.
Recently, the styrene sector has been in a plateau period, with narrow range fluctuations in price. Previously, the raw material pure benzene rebounded after falling, and coupled with the expected tightening of supply due to the peak maintenance season for styrene in April, styrene followed suit at the end of March. However, the recent heavy decline in crude oil and pessimistic expectations for the future have constrained the styrene market, and it is expected that styrene may weaken in the short term.
On the demand side: In early April, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal was generally flat, and the purchasing logic was biased towards buying at the bottom and supplementing orders for urgent needs. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing briefly rose. However, with the exhaustion of essential orders, on-site trading has become sluggish and the flow of goods has returned slowly. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
At the beginning of April, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and consolidated. The changes in the upstream three materials are relatively narrow, which provides average comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has been reduced, and there are reports of dual major factories undergoing maintenance in the future. The demand side consumption has increased to a certain extent, and currently downstream enterprises are returning to a flat purchasing trend. Business analysts believe that although ABS has fallen to near cost price, the market will have strong supply and weak demand in the long term. Due to the heavy impact of tariff policies on crude oil, there is a heavy emphasis on pessimistic expectations for the future market, and it is difficult to find any positive results. In the short term, the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8011 yuan/ton on March 31 and 8008 yuan/ton on April 3, a decrease of 0.04% during this period. The average price of LDPE (2426H) was 9633 yuan/ton on March 31st and 9633 yuan/ton on April 3rd, during which the quotation remained stable. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8387 yuan/ton on March 31 and 8337 yuan/ton on April 3, a decrease of 0.60% during this period.
Recently, polyethylene has undergone a narrow and weak adjustment. Market supply pressure remains, with expectations of an increase. Downstream demand fell short of expectations, with limited demand and lack of confidence in the market. Prices were mainly based on small discounts for shipments, and end-users were resistant to high priced goods. Recently, international oil prices have been relatively strong, with some support on the cost side, but there are insufficient favorable factors, and it is expected that polyethylene will continue to be weak.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in March
The price of ethylene glycol will decrease in March 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 31, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4521.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the average price of 4681.67 yuan/ton on March 1.
On March 31, 2025, the basis of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot contract was relatively high, and the transaction price range for this week’s contract was between 4470-4504 yuan/ton (excluding collective transactions). This week’s spot contract basis quotation is+42 to+46, next week’s spot contract basis quotation is+51 to+53, and April’s spot contract basis quotation is+65 to+67.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4220-4250 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of March 31st, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 524-528 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 536 US dollars/ton.
Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and in March, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. On March 27, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 680000 tons, an increase of 8800 tons compared to the total inventory of 671200 tons on March 3; Compared to December 30, 2024, the total inventory was 397300 tons, an increase of 282700 tons.
Recent favorable factors
Recently, international crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the drag of cost has slowed down. Coupled with the significant decline in ethylene glycol, the downward space has narrowed.
Starting from April, the planned maintenance volume for spring inspections has increased, and the expected domestic supply of ethylene glycol has weakened.
Recent bearish factors
There is news of a production reduction in downstream polyester, with weak terminal demand and doubts about the subsequent consumption demand for ethylene glycol.
Overall, it is expected that the probability of horizontal fluctuations in the future market of ethylene glycol will increase.