1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 14th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20666.67.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the beginning of the month’s price of 20833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.98% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 14th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% compared to the initial price of 25500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and an increase of 2.70% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of April 14th, the price of upstream trichloromethane fell by 5.61% during the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 5.69%. In March, the price of trichloromethane raw materials surged and fell significantly, but this week saw a slight rebound. Although the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly rebounded, it is still at a relatively low level overall. Lower costs have formed a certain pressure on refrigerant prices. Due to the arrival of the refrigerant peak season and the need for support, the price of refrigerant R22 has slightly weakened this week.

In April, the domestic price of trichloroethylene continued to decline, and although the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly rebounded, it is still at a relatively low level overall. The cost of R134a raw materials has weakened due to the fluctuation, and under cost suppression, the domestic price of R134a has slightly weakened this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has bottomed out and slightly rebounded. Overall, the price of hydrofluoric acid is still at a relatively low level. The bottoming out and rebound of hydrofluoric acid prices, coupled with the support of summer refrigerant demand, will provide some support for domestic refrigerant prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, with the fluctuation of raw material costs and a low-pressure system, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will still have some room for decline. Supported by the peak demand season for refrigerants, the overall price decline space for R22 and R134a is limited.

On April 6th, the average market price in the East China region was 197560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream quotation range for 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market is 197000-198500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 197750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

The overnight US dollar closed up 0.32% again, with the metal market generally under pressure. Lunxi fell 2.01%, and the domestic market was closed on the 5th due to the Qingming Festival holiday. Therefore, Shanghai Tin opened early today to make up for losses. As of the close of the 6th, the closing settlement price of the Shanghai Tin Main 2305 contract was 197580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5%.

Fundamentally speaking, the supply side is slightly affected by the tight supply at the mining end, and refined tin companies are afraid of a decline in operating rates in the market. However, the overall operating rate remains relatively stable at around 60%. The demand side remains weak. In terms of inventory, Lunxi’s inventory has dropped to 1855 tons, reaching a low level in nearly a year. Shanghai tin inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks, with the latest data at 8639 tons, which is also at a low level in the past month. Due to the low inventory of tin, it is more susceptible to macroeconomic factors, causing frequent market fluctuations. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and the overall operation of the tin market is expected to be weak due to the lack of actual demand support.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda first fell and then rose in March, and overall declined. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 916 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.46%, and a decrease of 31.13% compared to the same period last year. On March 30th, the caustic soda commodity index was 124.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 53.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 91.37% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda rose first and then fell this month. In mid to early March, the price of caustic soda decreased, and the downstream alumina procurement was average. The trading atmosphere was relatively light. Some caustic soda units have reduced their load, but overall, the supply is still relatively sufficient. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and market caution is lingering. In late March, the price of caustic soda increased, and some regions have seen a decrease in caustic soda equipment recently. The inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the overall supply is lower than in the previous period. Downstream demand is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average. Market transactions are relatively flat.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 12th week of 2023 (3.20-3.24), there was one commodity that rose, two commodities that fell, and two commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have increased are: caustic soda (1.49%); The main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (-8.46%) and PVC (-1.49%). This week’s average rise and fall was -1.69%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the caustic soda market has been operating well in the near future, and the market trading atmosphere is still good. The mainstream average price in the Shandong region is around 830-890 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is still high, and the market follow-up is average. However, due to the relatively concentrated maintenance of chlor alkali enterprises’ equipment in recent times, there is favorable support on the supply side. In the later stage, the supply of caustic soda will decrease, and the industry is optimistic about the future market. Overall, the short-term or upward trend of caustic soda prices depends on downstream market demand.

In March, the domestic ammonia market reversed the previous month’s upward trend, with most regions of the country showing a downward trend. The main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, and Lianghu have experienced significant declines. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of the end of the month, the drop in liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 8.88%. The main supply performance is tolerant, and the pressure of accumulated inventory by enterprises forces prices to continuously decrease; The combination of agricultural demand gaps and negative periods has led to a continuous decline in prices due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. At the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was between 3850-4000 yuan/ton.

From a supply perspective, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers is higher than last month, especially in the northern region where the equipment is operating normally. Large factories have accumulated inventory to guide manufacturers to continuously lower their listing prices. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the monthly reduction rate of manufacturers in Shandong region is within the range of 300 yuan/ton. Many devices in the southern region have gradually resumed production, and the increase in supply has further exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

On the demand side, the ammonia market in March reversed the supply shortage situation of the previous month. On the one hand, agricultural demand weakened, and on the other hand, industrial demand could not follow up in a timely manner, especially in the middle and late stages, with liquid ammonia prices gradually falling from their high points. From the perspective of downstream urea, according to the monitoring of Business Society, the trend of urea is weak, mainly fluctuating downward, with a monthly decline of 1.61%. Due to the retreat of agricultural demand, the peak season of returning to green manure has ended, and the procurement volume of composite fertilizers and board markets has declined. In addition, sectors such as ammonium chloride (-3.32%) and melamine (-4.23%) also experienced varying degrees of decline. The weakening of downstream demand support is an important reason for the decline of liquid ammonia.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the cost side also remains bearish. In particular, liquefied natural gas has plummeted significantly, with a monthly decline of 28.02%. The significant decline in natural gas has had a significant impact on ammonia companies in Southwest China, providing ammonia companies with the possibility of selling at reduced prices despite generally light market trading. The coal market maintains a weak range and adjusts, with prices hovering at relatively low levels. Overall, there is significant bearish pressure on the cost side of the ammonia market.

Future Market Forecast:

Analysts from Business Society believe that from a supply side perspective, ammonia companies had a high output in March, and due to the sluggish urea industry, there were relatively few urea conversion plants. This leads to a significantly weaker market for liquid ammonia compared to urea. The short-term demand side still faces pressure, with agricultural demand lagging behind and industrial demand lagging behind. Therefore, supply and demand are still weak in the near future. Combined with the negative impact brought by the downward trend of upstream raw material natural gas and weak coal, it is expected that liquid ammonia will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business Agency: Domestic maleic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in March

According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7740.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 2.65% from 7540.00 yuan/ton on March 1.

The maleic anhydride commodity index stood at 72.91 on March 31, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 56.19% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and up 42.46% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Most of the three domestic benzoic anhydride markets continue to be shut down. In the first ten days of March, downstream resin demand was stable, and some maleic anhydride manufacturers continued to shut down for maintenance. The manufacturers temporarily had no pressure to ship, and the price of maleic anhydride continued to rise. In late March, international crude oil fell sharply, while the upstream n-butane price continued to decline. Downstream resin costs and terminal performance were under pressure. There was limited enthusiasm for maleic anhydride replenishment, and the maleic anhydride market declined. As of the 31st day, the solid anhydride in Shandong region was about 7300 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu region was about 7300 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 7800 yuan/ton.

In early March, the price of crude oil rose, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, had a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.

In March, the overall hydrogenation benzene market rose first, then fell, and finally experienced a narrow volatility trend. The market price fluctuated along with the trend of the pure benzene market. As of the 30th, the factory price in the main production area remained at 7150 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price in East China was at 7250-7300 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, recently, the profits of hydrogenation benzene enterprises are still remaining, and the operation is relatively active, with the operation rate maintaining a normal level. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is just needed, and the overall demand has not changed much. The recent trend mainly follows the fluctuations in the industrial chain.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

The maleic anhydride product analyst of the Business Society believes that the current domestic maleic anhydride market has a serious loss in the benzene oxidation process, with factories being shut down for maintenance, and there are few circulating sources of goods in the market; At the end of March, the upstream n-butane price of maleic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, supporting the market cost of maleic anhydride; However, there are currently replenishment positions in the downstream market, with caution in pursuing higher prices and focusing on purchasing as needed. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.