1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on September 30 was 12366.67 yuan / ton, up 233.34 yuan / ton from 12133.33 yuan at the beginning of the month, up 1.92% in the month

2、 Market analysis

In September, the hiips market rose slightly, up about 2%, and the price of benzene rose slightly by 0.6%. The PS market as a whole moved forward in a steady upward trend. This month, driven by the raw material end, styrene fluctuated sharply in the month, rose and then fell, with an increase of about 4% in the month. The cost side supported the rise of hips price. In the first week of September, the market price of hips fell slightly by 0.55%, and the market transaction was light; In the second week, the raw styrene market rebounded strongly, boosting the hips market, but the demand dragged down, and hips returned to the decline at the weekend; In the third week, driven by the rising price of raw styrene and the release of the dual control policy on energy consumption, manufacturers started or declined, and the supply decreased, which was conducive to the rise of hips price, with an increase of 2.2% during the week. From the fourth week to the end of the month, the hips market basically operated smoothly, the impact of dual control on energy consumption continued, the demand of downstream users was low, the demand decreased, and the hips market was stable and weak. Up to now, the mainstream price of hips is mostly about 12000-14900 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene penetration is mostly 11000-11350 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from July 5 to September 26, 2021 that hips prices were mainly stable in July and August, but the range was not large. They stopped falling and rising in September, and rose by 2.2% in the week of September 13, which was the largest increase in this cycle.

In the international crude oil market, on September 28, the international oil price fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.29/barrel, down US $0.16 or 0.2%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $78.35/barrel, down US $0.37 or 0.47%. On Tuesday, the oil price rose first and then fell. The oil distribution disk once rose above the US $80 mark, and then profit taking was affected by the sharp decline of US stocks, Oil prices fell slightly.

In terms of raw materials, on September 29, the reference price of styrene was 9160.00, an increase of 4.24% compared with September 1 (8787.50). The correction of pure benzene is temporarily stable, the cost support of styrene still exists, and the falling price space is limited. The styrene maintenance unit is gradually restored, the domestic supply will increase, and the fundamentals of styrene itself still show signs of weakening. Although next week is approaching the National Day holiday, the market may still have the possibility of preparing goods before the festival, but the rise is weak. It is expected that the price of styrene will remain stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the business society, the hips market rose steadily in September. Towards the end of the month, the downstream construction was not high and the demand was reduced. The hips market callback slightly, but the overall operation is still stable. It is expected that the hips price may decline slightly in the short term, and the trend of raw material price needs to be paid attention to.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (September 30): 21233.33 yuan / ton

On September 30, the epichlorohydrin market was on the sidelines, mainly stable, up 46.77% compared with September 1 and 87.35% compared with the same period last year. At present, the price of raw material propylene rises slightly, the price of glycerol runs at a high level, and the cost support still exists, but the demand side is slightly insufficient, the market atmosphere is light, and it is mainly cautious to wait and see.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be weak and wait-and-see.

In September, the polyester filament factory continued to accumulate stocks, focusing on periodic price reduction and promotion. With the increase of production reduction and production restriction, the accumulation rate of polyester fiber was slowed down. At the same time, it began to rise significantly in the last ten days with the boost of raw materials. Therefore, the overall market showed a trend of shock first and then rebound in September. According to the price monitoring of the business club, polyester FDY rose the most significantly. As of September 29, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) rose 6.35%, followed by polyester DTY and polyester POY, up 5.38% and 4.95% respectively. At present, for mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7400-7950 yuan / ton, that of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 9150-9550 yuan / ton, and that of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 7950-8250 yuan / ton.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market in September, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-9-1 2021-9-29 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) seven thousand six hundred and twenty-seven eight thousand seven hundred and seventy 6.35% 46.20%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) eight thousand seven hundred and ninety-seven nine thousand two hundred and forty-one 5.38% 40.67%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand and three hundred seven thousand six hundred and sixty-one 4.95% 48.59%

In the raw material market, the PTA maintenance device was restarted in early September, and the industrial operating rate increased to more than 80%. However, due to the weak downstream demand, the PTA factory was in sufficient supply, and the inventory rebounded significantly. In particular, the upgrading of the energy “dual control” policy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased the impact on the weaving industry, and the shutdown and production reduction increased significantly. Since the end of the month, PTA maintenance has been strengthened, and the industrial operating load has dropped to near 72%. At the same time, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil, the market fluctuated upward. As of September 29, the average price in the domestic spot market was 5083 yuan / ton, up 3.49% from the beginning of the month and 52.89% year-on-year.

The quality of the “golden nine” at the downstream demand side is insufficient. Under the current “double control” policy, the downstream impact is greater. In particular, the operating rate has fallen sharply after the Mid Autumn Festival, falling to the low level in the same period in recent years, and the operating load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has fallen to less than 50%. In addition, the release of foreign trade orders is still slow, and the delivery of completed foreign trade orders is also relatively difficult. In addition, printing and dyeing work stoppage and holidays lead to the very cautious attitude of weaving factories in receiving orders.

From the perspective of the textile industry, according to the textile index of business society, as of September 29, the textile index was 1000 points, an increase of 8 points over 992 points at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 13.49% over 1156 points (2018-09-03), the highest point in the cycle, and an increase of 46.84% over 681 points, the lowest point on August 13, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of terminal textile and clothing retail, from January to August, the retail sales of textile and clothing totaled 856.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, but the retail sales in August was only 89.96 billion yuan, a new low since 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%. In terms of export, from January to August 2021, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was US $1984.468 billion, an increase of 5.90%, including textile export of US $92.773 billion, a decrease of 11.47%, and clothing export of US $105.695 billion, an increase of 27.95%.

Business analysts believe that under the influence of “double control”, the production capacity of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is concentrated, and the influence time lasts from mid September to the National Day holiday, which coincides with the traditional peak season of the textile and garment industry, and the bad demand side is upgraded. The supply of raw material PTA market is sufficient, the demand side is light, and the double weak pattern of short-term PTA supply and demand still exists. However, thanks to the strong support of crude oil and the gradual implementation of plant unit maintenance in the later stage, the supply will be improved, so the cost side can still be expected. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the “double control” policy and the trend of oil price.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI market temporarily operated stably on September 30. The average market price in East China was 13925 yuan / ton, down 3.07% month on month.

On September 30, the distribution market in East China was temporarily stable, and the distribution market price remained stable. The price of domestic goods was about 13400-13600 yuan / ton, and the price of Shanghai goods was about 13700-14000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. Many TDI plants in China have been overhauled, and the supplier has shrunk. There is no inventory pressure for the moment. The TDI plant of a factory in the north is restarted, and Yinguang and Wanhua plants also plan to restart one after another. The supply and inventory increment is expected. At the end of the month, large factories successively announce the closing and hanging prices. The atmosphere in the field is mainly wait-and-see. The downstream is affected by dual control of energy consumption, the demand is weak, and the market trading is weak. It is also learned by the market, The restart time of Canghua unit is uncertain due to steam supply problems. It is expected to wait and see the future market and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Commodity index: on September 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 99.44, up 0.38 points from yesterday, down 7.18% from the highest point of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 19.97% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Recently, under the national “double control” policy, the price of chemical raw materials has increased. Under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the substantial increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products has risen rapidly recently. The manufacturer’s quotation is cautious, the pricing and delivery are subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation is not accepted, but the order arrangement is subject to payment.

Data monitoring shows that in September, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s market was greatly adjusted. The domestic mainstream price was 14750 yuan / ton on the 1st and 16275 yuan / ton on the 29th, with a monthly increase of more than 10%.

Among them, the continuous rise of raw acrylic acid is the main influencing factor. Since the middle of the year, under the influence of the “double control” policy, the operating rate of the industry has continued to decrease, and the spot acrylic acid supply in the market is tight. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of September 28, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 18366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.38% compared with the price on the first day, and a year-on-year increase of 63.50% in a three-month cycle. The sharp rise of acrylic acid led to a significant increase in the cost price of polyacrylamide and a rise in the market; Acrylonitrile, another raw material, has a mainstream market quotation of about 14900-15000 yuan / ton this month, which has little impact on the cost change of polyacrylamide.

Secondly, the recent sharp rise in the market of fuel liquefied natural gas has a certain impact on the market of polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market price of liquefied natural gas in China rose sharply first and then corrected slightly in September. On the 1st, the domestic mainstream price was 6110 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream price was about 6126.67 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream price rose sharply from the 14th to the 16th in the middle of the year, about 10%, and then the market fluctuated slightly. In about half a month from the 29th, the mainstream price in the domestic market rose to about 6126.67 yuan / ton. On the whole, in September, the increase was about 0.27%, and the maximum amplitude in the month was 5. 35%。 It is reported that, boosted by the auction of feed gas and driven by the cost of domestic liquid plants, the price rose sharply in the middle of the year, but the demand was not followed up enough. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the price of liquid plants was strongly supported. Under the condition of strict dual control of energy consumption and reduced demand of downstream gas consuming enterprises this month, the price of LNG remained volatile and the market was relatively strong, In the future, it is expected that the domestic liquid price will generally operate stably in the short term, but it is inevitable to reduce the price and arrange the stock near the National Day holiday.

As for the future market, the change of downstream demand for polyacrylamide has little impact on the recent market, while the change of cost pressure and inventory is the prominent influencing factor of the recent sharp rise of polyacrylamide market. Under the current situation, in response to the national policy of “dual control of energy consumption”, the enterprise has limited operation, tight market supply and continuous rise in the market of raw acrylic acid; The fuel liquefied natural gas is also affected by the policy, so it is expected that in the future, the acrylic acid market may be strong in the short term, and polyacrylamide is likely to continue to rise in the future.