After the high platform volatility of silver prices at the end of December 2025, prices continued to rise in January. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the afternoon of January 13, 2026, the silver market quoted 21043.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 13.87% from the peak spot price of 18480 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (1.3).
The recent surge in silver prices is the result of the resonance between macro finance, supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitical risk aversion, and fund sentiment. The core driving force is the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the outbreak of industrial demand coupled with the widening supply gap, the tense geopolitical situation driving up safe haven buying, and the combined amplification of volatility by policies such as China’s export controls and speculative funds. as follows:
Macro finance: Expectations of interest rate cuts and weakening of the US dollar lead to reduced opportunity costs
In January 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were lower than expected. The market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25BP in March will increase to 75%, and the probability of consecutive interest rate cuts in June will exceed 90%, driving down real interest rates and the US dollar index below 100. This will increase the attractiveness of silver denominated in US dollars. For every 1% drop in the US dollar, silver usually rises by 1.5% -2%, and the opportunity cost of holding silver decreases simultaneously.
Developed economies have high debt and weakened US dollar credit, with central banks increasing their holdings of gold and precious metals, and silver benefiting from asset revaluation following gold.
Supply and demand fundamentals: Industrial demand erupts, supply gap continues to widen:
On the demand side, photovoltaics are the largest consumer of silver, with a global silver consumption of 7560 tons by 2025, accounting for 55% of total demand and doubling from 2022; The demand for new energy vehicles, AI servers and other fields is growing synchronously, with industrial demand increasing by 13% year-on-year in 2025.
Supply side: The global silver shortage has lasted for five consecutive years, with a shortfall of about 3660 tons by 2025. In 2026, China will implement a “single review” for silver exports, and 60% -70% of refined silver worldwide depends on China, further tightening supply expectations. And 70% -80% of silver comes from copper lead zinc associated mines, making it difficult for independent silver mines to rapidly expand production capacity. Strikes and grade declines in major producing countries exacerbate supply rigidity.
Inventory side: About 80% of LBMA inventory is locked up or invalid inventory by ETFs, and inventory in key markets such as the previous period is at a historical low. The shortage of spot goods has pushed up expectations of crowding out and price increases.
Geopolitics and funding: Rising risk aversion combined with speculative sentiment, amplified volatility:
Geopolitical events such as the US raid on Venezuela triggered safe haven buying, and spot silver rose 9.72% in the first week of January, with a single day increase of over 6%.
Data shows that COMEX’s net long position in silver speculation is still at a high level, and the influx of funds strengthens the wealth effect. Even though the CME has raised its margin three times (the latest increase in January was 28.6%), speculative enthusiasm has not significantly cooled down.
Policy and structural factors: strategic attributes and short-term catalysis:
Silver has been included in the key mineral list of the United States, and the market expects an increase in demand for strategic reserves; China’s export control intensifies global supply tension, with 44 companies obtaining export qualifications, raising global circulation costs through ‘single review’
Futures delivery and index rebalancing trigger short-term fluctuations, but funds quickly flow back under the support of fundamentals, driving a counter trend upward trend.
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