1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene continued to rise this week. On June 13, the price of pure benzene was 7600-7750 yuan / ton (average price 7730 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (June 20), the price of pure benzene was 7603-7800 yuan / ton (average price 7750 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 60 yuan / ton or 0.78% compared with last week; It was 112.33% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, after the price of pure benzene rose, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene remained stable at 7750 yuan / ton. Domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise, boosted by the continuous rise of crude oil and low pure benzene port inventory. Within the week, the inventory of pure benzene in the main port of East China dropped to below 80000 tons. But at present, most of the downstream products are at a loss, and the follow-up of pure benzene slows down, limiting the rise.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (June 18) was 935 US dollars / ton, up 12 US dollars / ton, or 1.3%, from June 11; The import reference price of East China was 960 US dollars / ton, which was flat on June 11.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand, and the overall trend of international oil prices is upward. However, the strong US dollar exchange rate during the week depressed oil prices.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene fell this week. On June 18, the price of sample enterprises was 8800 yuan / ton, down 1.68% from last week, and up 61.47% from the same period last year.

Aniline: part of the plants in the yard maintained load reduction operation. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply of Jinling aniline plant in the parking and maintenance yard continued to decrease, and the price of aniline continued to rise under the favorable support. On June 18, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 9600 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong was 9400-9580 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 5.58% over last week, 3.65% over the beginning of the month, 19.83% over the beginning of the year, and 108.82% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the outlook for crude oil demand is good and upward momentum still exists, but uncertainty may restrict the rise of oil prices. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the global epidemic, OPEC +’s latest decision on production reduction, global economic data, US crude oil and refined oil inventories, US dollar exchange rate, etc.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: the rise of crude oil has a certain support for styrene, but the downstream demand is weak and the psychology of waiting to fall is strong.

Internationally, the recovery of crude oil is promising; External price volatility. In China, the pure benzene units that were overhauled in the early stage have been restarted one after another, and the supply may gradually pick up, but the on-site supply is still in a tight situation in the short term. Downstream: some downstream products are losing money, and the enthusiasm for pure benzene follow-up is not high. Overall, it is expected that the pure benzene will continue to fluctuate next week, with the possibility of decline. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10600 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10533 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.63% and an increase of 30.04% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic PS market fell mainly, with a range of 50-250 yuan / ton. Raw material styrene low consolidation, combined with PS ex factory price down impact, the market with the mood is strong, business price shipping. Styrene rebounded on Wednesday, and an unexpected impact of an enterprise in Jiangsu Province. On Thursday, some businesses tentatively pulled up. The replenishment operation of traders was slightly better, and the terminal heard that it was general.

The factory price of PS has been lowered, the tight supply situation has been improved to some extent, and the downstream demand is weak. In Yuyao market, the price of benzene is 10650-12200 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene is 12500-14200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the overall impact of PS construction is improving, and the market supply increase is expected to be obvious. It is expected that the PS market will be consolidated in a narrow range next week, and some of them will rise.

Ethylene oxide remained stable at 6900 yuan / ton.

Affected by the bearish trend of downstream demand and abundant supply, the weak market of ethylene continued to ferment. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia temporarily stopped falling at US $900 / T, while the external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was US $860 / T, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. The quotation of domestic Luxi Chemical ethylene was 7060 yuan / T today, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene was 7200 yuan / T today. The support of cost side was weakened, but the supply side of ethylene oxide was strong. According to the known dynamic of the plant, srbon is expected to be overhauled in early July, Jinyan is still in the shutdown state, Jilin Petrochemical is expected to be overhauled until the middle of July, Zhenhai Petrochemical is expected to stop in short time due to fault, Shanghai Petrochemical has been successfully started up, and ethylene oxide is expected to be in a tight state until next month. At present, the market of downstream monomer is stable, and Hubei Ling’an factory has no stock. Affected by the lift of ethylene oxide, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and there may be bullish expectations in the future.

It needs to pay close attention to the change of ethylene oxide supply side and downstream demand.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 15, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 510 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on June 1, and increased by 30 yuan / ton or 6.25% compared with that on May 1 (480 yuan / ton).

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole continued to run at a high level and stably. At present, in Guizhou, the transaction of medium and high-end phosphorus ore market is normal, the shipment of mining enterprises is normal, and the orders of cooperative old customers are relatively stable. The quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore is about 430-480 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphorus ore is about 360-420 yuan / ton, Among them, the price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Xifeng of Guizhou is 450 yuan / T, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore in Huifa of Fuquan of Guizhou is 420 yuan / T. In Hubei Province, it is heard that in the last ten days, phosphate rock enterprises in Hubei Province want to increase the price of phosphate rock, and the overall market transaction is more high-end. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock for mainstream ship plate is around 500-530 yuan / ton.

Downstream yellow phosphorus, starting from the second week of June, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan started to increase, and the price of yellow phosphorus market began to decline. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 14, the reference price of domestic yellow phosphorus was 23500 yuan / ton, which was 6% lower than that of June 1 (25000 yuan / ton).

Downstream phosphoric acid, the phosphoric acid market is affected by the downward trend of raw material yellow phosphorus, and the quotation of individual regions has slightly decreased. The overall wait-and-see atmosphere of the market is heavy. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of June 14, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 6350 yuan / ton, up 2.7% compared with June 1 (6183.33 yuan / ton).

The price of downstream monoammonium phosphate went up in May and then entered June. At present, the overall high and stable operation. At present, the trading atmosphere in the yard is normal. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate is 2650-2750 yuan / ton, and that of 58% powdered ammonium phosphate is 2750-2800 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business association, as of June 14, the reference price of map was 2616.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on June 1.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the downward trend of downstream Yellow Phosphorus market has a certain impact on the market trend of phosphorus ore, but the price adjustment of some mining enterprises in Hubei will also bring positive impetus to the market. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range, the low end price will continue to rise, and the high end price will continue to maintain a high level.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10020 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable this week. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 9400-9700 yuan / ton. The quotations of some manufacturers are higher than the market price. The actual transaction market on the floor is weak. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable. With the support of domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply in the near future, the price trend on the floor is temporarily stable.

The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, part of the hydrofluoric acid plants in the field are restarted, and the price of upstream raw materials of hydrofluoric acid has little change. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 9400-9600 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9400-9700 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the manufacturers report that the recent delivery situation is not good, but the price of hydrofluoric acid market still has downward pressure in the later stage.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the domestic price of fluorite was 2616.67 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend is stable. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply is normal. However, with the temperature rising, some manufacturers in the north are gradually starting up. However, recently, the environmental protection supervision is strict, and the affected plants in some areas are parking, This week, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2400-2600 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

The market trend of domestic refrigerants is temporarily stable. Recently, the sales situation of the automobile industry is normal. The market of refrigerants is temporarily stable. The demand is mainly purchased on demand. The trend of the refrigerant industry remains stable. The market of various types of refrigerants has little change. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is declining, and the cost support is lost. The export volume of refrigerants has little change, The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the refrigerant price remains stable temporarily. On the whole, negative factors dominate the refrigerant market, and the prices of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform are lower, which makes the refrigerant industry under pressure. At present, the load of R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, the market price trend is stable, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the delivery situation of goods holders is normal, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 16000-17500 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low load, and the price trend of R134a remains stable. However, the current demand procurement is the main, the downstream enterprises are not high, and the traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 20000-24000 yuan / ton, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the market trend of downstream refrigerants is stable, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Judging from the industrial chain diagram, the price trend of fluorine chemical industry is declining, the price of raw material fluorite is falling, and the price of downstream refrigerant products is gradually falling. However, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant has been running stably recently, the spot supply is normal, and the downstream demand does not change much. Chen Ling, the hydrofluoric acid analyst of the business community, thinks that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market may be stable temporarily.