On December 24, the natural rubber commodity index was 39.50, down 0.36 points from yesterday, down 60.50% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 44.79% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from 2011-09-01 to now)
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Data monitoring shows that, China’s natural rubber market fluctuated slightly during the week (20-24), first up and then down. The price of domestic standard 1 spot rubber in East China market on the 20th (Monday) was 13200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 24th (Friday) was 13320 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.91% in the week. The highest price of this week was 13440 yuan / ton on Thursday, and the lowest price was 13200 yuan / ton on Monday, with a maximum amplitude of 1.82%.
The factors affecting the market this week are more prominent: 1. Since late December, the influence of the mutant strain Omicron on the market sentiment has weakened, the fear of slowing fuel demand has eased, and the crude oil price has rebounded slightly.
2. Supply side: Although the output is not as strong as in previous years due to the spread of the epidemic and rainfall, the rainfall in southern Thailand tends to decrease, the total output of new glue in the main production areas of Southeast Asia is still in the production increase period, and the glue price is basically stable; The rainfall in the main production areas of Vietnam and Indonesia gradually decreased, and the price of raw materials fell. China has entered the cold winter period, and typhoon “Ray” will approach Hainan Island and bring rainfall. Most rubber producing areas have stopped cutting, with high glue prices and low upstream profits.
3. Downstream demand: as of December 16, 2021, the operating rate of all steel tires of downstream tire enterprises was 63%, down 1.3% month on month; The operating rate of semi steel tire was 64%, up 0.2% month on month. The market demand is sluggish, and the tire inventory is seasonally accumulated, which is similar to that in the same period of previous years. Affected by many factors such as cost growth, major tire brands have experienced price increases for many times, and the increase of some brands is about 10% higher than the average price in the first half of the year. In November, the output of tire casing increased significantly month on month. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of rubber tire casing in November was 80.42 million, an increase of 7.35 million month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.82 million. Statistics show that in November, the output of all steel tires was 11.44 million, a month on month increase of 1.22 million, and the output of semi steel tires was 42.96 million, a month on month increase of 4.87 million.
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4. In terms of inventory: the increase of warehouse receipts in the previous period was obvious. The statistical data showed that as of December 24, Tianjiao warehouse receipts were 206590 tons, an increase of 14360 tons on a weekly basis, and the total inventory of the exchange was 228055 million tons, an increase of 6705 tons on a weekly basis; The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 592.8 million tons, an increase of 362 tons on a weekly basis. The inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to be out of stock, the total inventory in Qingdao continues to decrease, and the warehouse receipts grow rapidly.
5. Import and export: in the first 11 months of 2021, Thailand exports natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) totaled 3096000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 29%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1537000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 58%; the export of cigarette rubber was 457000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 33%; the export of latex was 1085000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4%. From January to November, the total export of natural rubber to China was 1128000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 30%. From January to November, Thailand exported 1064000 tons of mixed rubber, with a year-on-year decrease of 28% The total export of synthetic rubber to China was 1.059 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28%.
6. Latest data: the latest November report released by ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber output will increase by 2.1% year-on-year to 13.882 million tons in 2021. Among them, Thailand decreased by 3.9%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, China increased by 22.9%, India increased by 15.3%, Vietnam slightly increased by 0.3% and Malaysia increased by 2.9%.
Future forecast: the weather in Southeast Asia has improved recently, the output is normal, and the price support is weakening; The typhoon in China is approaching and the cutting process is speeding up. The operation of tire enterprises is relatively stable, the inventory is accumulated seasonally, and the increase of cost leads to frequent price increases of tires; The freight industry is depressed and the cost is high. In conclusion, the future trend of natural rubber is expected to be weak.
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