1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price was almost stable this week, with a slight up and down. The weekly low price was 6978 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; 6979 yuan / ton was at the weekend, with a weekly increase of only 0.01%; the weekly high price on Wednesday and Thursday was only 6985 yuan / ton, and the weekly vibration amplitude was only 0.09%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuated up and down periodically, and the fluctuation price range broke through at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of August, the price was at a high level in the range. Since the end of the week, the price of some enterprises has been slightly up and down, but it has remained stable since the end of the week. On the 5th, the prices of some enterprises have been slightly stable. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month has been started. From the 11th to the 16th, the price has continued to decline, and on the 17th, it has been stable for more than 10 days Most manufacturers are still stable prices, today’s prices continue to fluctuate slightly, the market turnover is still between 6900 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

On August 27, crude oil prices still rose and fell, which had limited impact on propylene market.

Recently, PP futures market is general, spot price slightly up, weekly increase of 0.21%, little impact on propylene.

This week, acrylic acid market is stable, no impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market this week a small upward, the weekly rise of 1.52%, has a positive impact on propylene.

The price of epichlorohydrin fell down after rising, and there was no rise or fall this week, which had no great impact on propylene.

The domestic price of n-butanol declined slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29%, which had a slightly negative impact on propylene.

Octanol market all the way down this week, the weekly decline of 1.19%, a small negative impact on propylene.

This week, isopropanol market declined after a slight rise, with a weekly decline of 0.83% and a weekly amplitude of 1.64%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

The whole line of East China phenol stabilized this week, and had no impact on propylene.

East China acetone also stabilized this week, no impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe: in a comprehensive view, there is no pressure on the inventory of the current propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price fluctuates slightly, and the profit margin of the downstream is better, but it is mainly on demand procurement, the overall market trading is stable, and it is expected that the propylene price will continue to stabilize.

According to the statistics of business agency, as of August 26, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was reported at 15066 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price on August 15, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.30%; the price of nylon POY was 12720 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 120 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.93%, a year-on-year decrease of 18.77%; the price of nylon FDY was 15750 yuan / ton, which was flat, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.25%. Crude oil performance is strong, but the downstream inventory is more sufficient, order support is general, nylon raw material delivery pressure is still in, although nylon manufacturers hold more prices, transactions generally yield profits.

Due to the impact of the Gulf of Mexico hurricane, U.S. oil producers are urgently reducing crude oil production for the hurricane. As of the week ended August 21, US crude oil inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels. On August 25, the price of us WTI crude oil futures market rose, and the settlement price of main contracts rose by US $0.73 to US $43.35/barrel. In the near future, oil prices are likely to remain high consolidation.

 
The shipment of cyclohexanone in the first ten days of August was blocked, and the social warehouse was on the high side, and the price was the main factor,. Last week, the operating rate of caprolactam enterprises was 79%, while the downstream demand improved, mainly supporting prices. In terms of price PA6 slice consumption, due to the early stage traders and downstream factories have a certain amount of advanced consumption for the coming “gold nine silver ten”, the current trading volume of PA6 is weakening and the market atmosphere is deadlocked. On the whole, the price of cyclohexanone decreased slightly in the last ten days, while caprolactam recovered slightly, and PA6 remained stable.

Judging from the nylon export data in the first half of the year, China’s nylon filament export volume was 119300 tons in June, with a month on month increase of 30% and a year-on-year decrease of 36%. From January to June 2020, the cumulative export of nylon filament was 920800 tons, down 21.4% compared with the same period last year. With the partial recovery of foreign production, nylon exports have recovered, but there is still a significant decline compared with last year. Although some manufacturers switch to domestic sales, the downstream demand is also reduced, and the domestic market is basically saturated. However, compared with the external market, the domestic production environment is more stable and has certain advantages in the current international market competition. It is expected that the export will continue to show a growth trend on a month on month basis.

Business analysts believe that the raw material side has strong support, but the feedback of downstream order demand is limited, which has a slight drag on the rising market, and the industry mainly holds prices. Gradually entered the traditional textile season, winter orders gradually put on the agenda, at the same time, the recent manufacturers offer firm, it is expected that nylon filament market ushered in a warmer.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on August 27, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7033 yuan / ton, with a slight price fluctuation, ranging from 100 to 300 yuan / ton. The carbon black market was mainly volatile this week.

Market conditions

Since June, carbon black downstream demand has continued to be good, driving carbon black demand. On the supply side of the industry, due to the low price in the early stage and the rise of coal tar price of raw materials, the operating rate of the industry dropped to about 50%, and the supply contracted, and the industry inventory continued to decline. Under the influence of multiple factors, carbon black industry ushered in a reversal.

Import and export

According to the statistics of the customs, in June 2020, the import volume of carbon black was 7294.6 tons, an increase of 37.1% over the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 7%. The main sources of imports were Japan (15.4%), the United States (14.4%), South Korea (11.7%), Belgium (11.3%), and Germany (9.4%). Shanghai (41.47%), Guangdong Province (20.56%) and Zhejiang Province (7.42%) ranked the top three in import volume.

In June 2020, the export volume of carbon black was 40240.5 tons, an increase of 71.1% over the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 33.8%. The main export countries are Thailand (38.4%), Vietnam (18.4%), Taiwan (9%), India (7.7%) and Indonesia (7.2%). The main export provinces and cities are Jiangxi Province (24.58%), Shanghai City (20.83%) and Shandong Province (16.01%).

In the first half of 2020, the total import volume of carbon black was 40000 tons, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year. Novel coronavirus pneumonia has been the first to recover from normal in China. Domestic enterprises have been fully recovered and regenerated, and their business environment is good. The demand for downstream tyres and automobiles has improved and the demand for high-end carbon black imports has increased.

In the first half of 2020, the total export volume of carbon black was 300000 tons, a decrease of 22.3% compared with the same period last year. In the first quarter of this year, the new crown epidemic broke out in China, and the whole country closed the city to fight the epidemic, and the output and export volume of carbon black decreased. In the second quarter, although China’s carbon black industry resumed production and increased supply, the new crown epidemic in major developed economies abroad was serious, which had a great impact on the international tire and automobile industry, indirectly restricting the demand for carbon black, and reducing foreign orders The export volume of carbon black decreased.

listed company

Black cat shares for domestic carbon black dragon head. The company’s existing carbon black production capacity of 1.2 million tons, continue to promote technology updates, new equipment to reduce raw material oil consumption, further reduce costs, while expanding the diversification of carbon black products. When the price of carbon black increases by 100 yuan / ton, EPS will be increased by 0.12 yuan. In addition, the company has actively expanded the fine chemical industry, actively cooperated with Anhui Shilian special solvent company, focusing on the production of sulfonated alkali soluble phenolic fine chemical products and crude phenol refining, including m-cresol, Resorcinol, etc. the investment layout has begun to enter the harvest period, opening up new growth space.

Jinneng technology is the leading coal coking company in China. The current production capacity of the company is 2.3 million tons of coke, 240000 tons of carbon black, 60000 tons of silica, 15000 tons of p-methylphenol, 120000 tons of sorbic acid (potassium), 100000 tons of benzene hydrogenation and 200000 tons of methanol. At present, the production capacity under construction mainly includes 900000 T / a propane dehydrogenation and 8×60000 T / a carbon black cycle project, and the first phase of 2×450000 T / a high performance polypropylene project. After being put into operation, the profit is expected to increase by 1 billion yuan and 670 million yuan respectively, which will help the long-term development of the company. When the price of carbon black increases by 100 yuan / ton, EPS will be increased by 0.03 yuan.

Aftermarket forecast: the carbon black market is expected to have a slight recovery in the future.

In the middle and late August (8.12-24), the three varieties of PE in the spot market showed different ups and downs. LDPE and HDPE in East China showed a trend of first stabilization and then pull up, while LLDPE in East China showed a trend of first falling and then callback. Although the range was not large, it deviated from the trend of the other two varieties. Among them, the increase of high-pressure LDPE was the most obvious, with the overall increase of 3.94% in the middle and late August. Lower PE market, but the overall stock market is still stable.

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7233.33 yuan / ton on August 12 and 7200.00 yuan / ton on August 24, with a decrease of 0.46% and an increase of 0.47% compared with August 1.

The average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 8875.00 yuan / ton on August 12 and 9225.00 yuan / ton on August 24, with an increase of 3.94% during the period and 6.80% higher than that on August 1.

The average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8200.00 yuan / ton on August 12 and 8300.00 yuan / ton on August 24, with an increase of 1.22% and 2.47% over August 1.

Regional varieties and manufacturers rose and fell from August 12 to August 24

East China LLDPE 7042 Jilin Petrochemical 7250 yuan / T 7200 yuan / T – 50 yuan

East China LLDPE 7042 Daqing Petrochemical Company 7250 yuan / T 7200 yuan / T – 50 yuan

East China LLDPE 7042 Dushanzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 7250 yuan / ton – 7200 yuan / ton – 50 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Daqing Petrochemical 8850 yuan / T 9250 yuan / ton + 400 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 8850 yuan / ton 9250 yuan / ton + 400 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Daqing Petrochemical 8200 yuan / ton 8300 yuan / ton + 100 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Lanzhou Petrochemical 8200 yuan / ton 8300 yuan / ton + 100 yuan

PE spot market in mid late August

In the middle and late August, PE is mainly up, except for linear weak consolidation, high and low pressure are up, ranging from 100 to 400 yuan / ton. Since the middle and late August, three new units have been put into operation, and the number of petrochemical maintenance units has gradually decreased, and the market supply has increased. However, due to the relatively low level of petrochemical inventory of two barrels of oil and the recent low level of polyolefin inventory in major domestic ports, the attitude of price support is obvious, and petrochemicals has successively raised the ex factory price to boost the market mentality. Due to high pressure supply in short supply, so the increase is higher than other varieties. During this period, the high level of international crude oil shocks also brought some support to the market. After the main region raised the price, the merchants followed up the offer to ship, and the market transaction atmosphere was stable.

Liansu futures market shock higher to the spot to bring some support

Upstream ethylene external market continued to fall

The decline of raw materials has limited support for PE market. In the near future, ethylene has shown a downward trend as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $725-735 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $665-675 per ton as of the 17th. The price of European ethylene market fell. As of the 17th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 690-697 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 683-691 US dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 17th, the price was 387-405 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and America is in a downward trend, the demand of the whole ethylene market is poor, and the trading atmosphere is cold and clear.

PE market after the market or strong

At present, the operating rate of agricultural film has increased, the demand for greenhouse film is increasing slowly, the demand for plastic film is mainly shut down in the off-season, and the downstream demand is still expected to rise. At present, the international crude oil trend remains high-temperature shock, which is relatively limited to the market. The linear futures fluctuate and rise, bringing certain support to the market. Although there are plans to put new units into operation in the middle and late August, with the completion of petrochemical plant maintenance, the market supply is expected to rise, but in the short term, the supply pressure is not big. PE market is expected to be strong in the short term.

This week, the lead market (8.17-8.21) fluctuated lower. The average price of domestic market was 16227.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 16052.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly decrease of 1.08%.

On August 22, the lead commodity index was 97.69, flat with yesterday, 27.10% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 30.90% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

This week, the price of lunlun lead rose and then fell back, fluctuated in the range of 1950-2025 U.S. dollars / ton. Affected by the weakening of US dollar, it rose to the highest point of 2025 US dollars / ton since mid January 2020. Later, affected by the high LME lead inventory, the price went down. Shanghai period tin this week to follow the trend of Lun lead after high, the overall trend is weak, the trend is inferior to the external price.

This week, the price fluctuation of domestic spot market is limited, and the weekly decline is about 100 yuan / ton, which is mainly driven by the trend of domestic futures market. Since August, the price of lead-acid battery has risen, and the operating rate of enterprises is higher. The spot lead is boosted by the expectation of downstream peak season, and the recent high price consolidation is the main factor. Transactions are mainly long orders, small orders less. The prices of downstream batteries have risen recently, and the operating rate is at a high level. However, the peak season of this year is not as good as that of previous years. The digestion of lead inventory is slow, the overall inventory is slightly higher, and the lead price fluctuates at a high level.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 33rd week (8.17-8.21) of 2020, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous plate with a month on month rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices, with the top three commodities being praseodymium neodymium alloy (4.22%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (3.71%) and copper (3.31%). There were five kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with dysprosium metal (- 2.95%), dysprosium oxide (- 2.14%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 1.36%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.92%.

The business agency forecasts the change of key lead inventory next week, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate in the peak season.