Trend analysis

According to the business agency data monitoring: the recent performance of the cobalt market is general, the price of cobalt fluctuates and falls. As of October 27, the cobalt price was 270333.34 yuan / ton, down 1.58% from 274666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), and 0.92% lower than that at the end of last week (October 18).

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

According to the data of China Academy of communications and communications, in September 2020, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 23.334 million, a year-on-year decrease of 35.6%; from January to September, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 226 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%. Mobile phone sales fell sharply, cobalt market demand plummeted, cobalt market favorable pressure.

Import data of cobalt raw materials

According to the latest data from the customs website, in September 2020, China imported 26700 physical tons of cobalt raw materials, equivalent to 6700 tons of metal tons, with a decrease of 27% on a month on month basis and a decrease of 32% on a year-on-year basis; the import of 5305 physical tons of cobalt concentrate, equivalent to 424 metal tons, was basically flat on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 65%. From January to September 2020, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 61200 tons of metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the import volume of cobalt raw materials decreased slightly, and the supply of cobalt decreased slightly. The import data in September dropped sharply. The domestic cobalt market demand was poor, and the domestic cobalt traders were generally enthusiastic about importing.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, the sales of mobile phones dropped sharply in September, and the demand of cobalt market dropped obviously, and the pressure of cobalt market was great; from January to September, the import quantity of cobalt raw materials fell, and the market of cobalt Market weakened, and the downward pressure of cobalt market was greater; in September, the import quantity of cobalt raw materials fell sharply, and the cobalt market was greatly de stocked in September, so the cobalt market supply decreased, and the cobalt price in the future market had certain upward momentum. Generally speaking, the demand of cobalt market has fallen in recent years, and the market of cobalt market has weakened. However, with the decrease of inventory and supply of cobalt market, the future cobalt market has certain upward momentum support, and it is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate and maintain stability.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. On the 19th, the average price of ethylene was 778.75 US dollars / ton, and on the 26th it was 750.50 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 3.63%. The current price is down 0.17% month on month, and the current price is 10.63% lower than last year.

In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $805-815 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $770-780 / T as of the 26th. The European ethylene market price fell slightly. As of the 26th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 706-719 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 697-706 dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States dropped to 490-502 US dollars / ton as of the 26th. In the end of October, the market of ethylene in Europe and America decreased slightly. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market was poor, and the market continued to decline.

International: on October 23, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $39.85/barrel, down $0.79. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 42.07 US dollars / barrel, down 0.39 US dollars. Oil prices have fallen recently, mainly due to the Libya conflict, the two sides signed a cease-fire agreement. Crude oil market decline can not give ethylene cost support, ethylene external market continued to fall.

Recently, the market price of styrene in East China increased slightly. Domestic styrene factory and port inventory is still declining. The price of styrene increases with the increase of the price of the goods holder. The market jumps and opens high. The downstream start-up continues to run on a high side. The rigid demand is strong, and some downstream prices rise sharply, driving up the price of styrene. In the near future, the East China styrene quotation has been raised to around 6600-6800 yuan / T. the styrene price tends to be sorted and digested after several big rises. It is expected that there is room for consolidation and price increase in the mainstream. But the price rise is small, unable to support the ethylene market.

In terms of crude oil, the two sides of the Libya conflict signed a cease-fire agreement in Geneva on the same day. The market was more worried about crude oil demand, and the drop in crude oil could not form a support for the ethylene market. Therefore, the data analysts of the business agency predicted that the external price of ethylene would fall mainly as follows.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 4150.00 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, 4100.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.2%. The current price was 1.5% lower than that of last year, and the current price was 6.02% lower than that of last year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate declined slightly, the trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market was not good, and the actual transaction volume was less. Generally speaking, the mentality of potassium nitrate manufacturers was low, and the market of potassium nitrate was lower. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 3900-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotations are different according to different purchasing situations.

This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride sales at the weekend is 2000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate

In recent years, the domestic potash fertilizer market price quoted by port traders is higher, but the downstream factory new order transaction is not active, and the shipment speed is relatively slow. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will decline slightly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the recent domestic caprolactam price rise. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on October 13 was 9233 yuan / ton, and that on October 23 was 9733 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.42% on October 10.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the supply of caprolactam decreased and the price of caprolactam rose. As of October 23, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / T, and the factory had a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 10100 yuan / ton. The 400000 tons / year plant starts normally, and the caprolactam unit operates normally. The price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid is 9900 yuan / ton. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 9900 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant is in normal operation, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9900 yuan / ton, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

The domestic market of raw material pure benzene rose mainly driven by styrene, and the market trading atmosphere rose. The higher price of pure benzene stimulated the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the market transaction was active.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the recent decline in caprolactam inventory, supply reduction. The raw material pure benzene rose, the downstream demand for caprolactam increased, and the upstream and downstream support was strong. In the short term, caprolactam market is expected to maintain a strong trend or continue to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 22, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 8600 yuan / ton. The price of domestic DMF market continued to grow, with a strong upward trend, and the price continued to rise. Compared with the same period last month, the price increased by 22.27%, 16.74% compared with the beginning of October, and the overall increase was more than 1000 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic DMF market price increased by more than 1000 yuan in the short term, the downstream demand increased, just needed to replenish, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, at present, the inventory is not under pressure, and the device is in normal operation. At present, the overall DMF market has a strong upward trend, the focus of negotiation moves upward, and the buying mentality drives the price to continue to rise. As of October 22, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 9000 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 8000 yuan/ It is 9200 yuan / ton in Xinghua of Shaanxi Province, 8900-9300 yuan / ton in East China market and 9200-9400 yuan / ton in South China market.

Methanol in the upstream is mainly stable, with general transaction atmosphere, no pressure on inventory and narrow range sorting.

The chemical index on October 21 was 767 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 24.51% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 28.26% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: DMF market is currently running at a high level, with strong upward momentum and maintaining an upward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)