1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of power coal fell slightly this week. On June 1, the average port price of power coal was maintained at about 554.75 yuan / ton, and on June 5, the average port price of power coal was maintained at about 551.75 yuan / ton, with the overall price falling by 0.54%, 7.89% lower than the same period last year.

On June 7, the power coal commodity index was 66.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.46% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 48.72% from 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the “two sessions” ended in China. In early June, the control of policies such as coal management ticket was gradually relaxed, production and supply were gradually restored, the downstream procurement was ok, the overall coal price still rose slightly, and the coal price of some coal mines was slightly reduced. It is understood that in recent days, the environmental protection inspection of coal mines in Shenmu area of Shaanxi Province has affected most of the coal mines, which have been shut down for rectification, and the coal volume has been slightly reduced. In addition, some Inner Mongolia customers have turned to Yulin, and the coal price in Shenmu area has been increased by 5-25 yuan / ton in a stable way. The overall sales situation of coal mines in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province is stable, and the coal on the mine is generally less. Since the completion of the overhaul of Daqin Railway, the transfer in of Beigang port has gradually returned to normal, and the inventory has picked up slightly, while the downstream procurement has slowed down, and the shipment is mainly based on long-term cooperation, and there are not many market coal transactions.

In terms of downstream power plants, after the end of the “two sessions” and the completion of the overhaul of Daqin line, the transfer in level of the port around the Bohai sea gradually picked up, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market at the beginning of the month, stable quotation from traders and fair transaction. With the arrival of the southern rainy season in the later period, the power generation of hydropower gradually started, the power of thermal power was partially squeezed, and the increase of coal consumption of coastal power plants was limited. At this stage, the inventory of coastal power plants has dropped, and the inventory of key power plants has remained stable. As of June 5, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 14.435 million tons, with a quarter of a thousand tons increase in the weekly to environmental ratio, a decrease of 1.369 million tons compared with the same period last month; the daily coal consumption was 601000 tons, with an increase of 8000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, with an increase of 52000 tons compared with the same period last month; the available days were 24.0 days, with an increase of 0.1 day in the weekly to environmental ratio, with a decrease of 4.8 days compared with the same period last month.

In terms of import, under the stable exploration of domestic coal price and strict control of imported coal, the terminal purchase was suspended, the increase of imported coal price was narrowed, the upstream and downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, the purchase enthusiasm was not strong, the number of transactions was small, and the market trading atmosphere was still cold.

Analysts of the business club believe that: in the near future, there has been continuous rain in the south, the daily consumption of coastal power plants is at a low level, and the willingness of the power plants to actively replenish the storage is weak. With the fall of coal demand, coal prices are facing a correction. However, as the weather turns hot, the peak season of coal consumption will officially come, “peak to summer”. Under the peak season of coal consumption, the coal price still has some support. It is comprehensively estimated that the supply and demand of power coal market in the later period is optimistic and there is room for increase. However, with the increase of rain in the later period, the increase range may not be large. See the downstream market demand for details.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4766 yuan / ton on June 1, 4833 yuan / ton on June 5, and the price rose 1.40% this week.

The commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on June 5 was 71.96, which was the same as yesterday, 34.24% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 12.70% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the cost of chlorinated paraffin fluctuated slightly, and chlorinated paraffin rose flexibly. The ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5200 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3900-4700 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5200 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4900 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

At present, the raw material market is mainly stable. The price of wax in upstream raw material liquid remained stable, and the market mostly purchased on demand. The mainstream price of raw material liquid chlorine market runs smoothly, and the price of some enterprises rebounds and rises. The downstream procurement is not active and the transaction is average.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association think that chlorinated paraffin rose slightly due to the fluctuation of raw materials. However, there is no improvement on the demand side, and the downstream is mainly waiting. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will run smoothly in the later stage.

On June 2, the sulfur commodity index was 30.54, up 1.64 points from yesterday, down 70.59% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.42% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of sulfur rose on June 3. The sulfur production price in East China was 556.67 yuan / ton, up 5.70% on a single day, 8.44% higher than that of last month. On Tuesday, refineries in various regions in China adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. in East China and Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical Co., Ltd. raised their prices by 20 yuan / ton, while other manufacturers’ prices were temporarily stable; Sinopec North China’s solid-liquid sulfur rose by 30 yuan / ton; Sinopec Shandong’s solid-liquid sulfur rose by 40-50 yuan / ton.

Downstream, on June 2, the domestic monoammonium market fluctuated slightly, and the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 62.37, up 0.22 points from yesterday. There is no inventory pressure for enterprises, and some enterprises also have a strong price intention. However, some manufacturers hold firm to the idea, and the overall market consolidation and operation. The market of diammonium is running smoothly, the domestic market is general, and the market demand is weak. Some enterprises start off-season maintenance to prepare for the autumn market. At present, the price has not fluctuated, maintaining the previous level.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the sulfur analyst of the business agency, at present, the external supply of sulfur is tight and the price is higher than the intended purchase price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to the high-end price, and the market operation mentality is not active. In the downstream, the factory’s enthusiasm for purchasing into the market is not high, the demand for phosphate fertilizer is weak, the sulfuric acid market is weak and stable, and the downstream buyers mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that the sulfur market will be frozen and consolidated in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business club, in May, LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE in East China all showed an upward trend of shocks, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was good. On May 31, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6650.00 yuan / ton, up 5.56% in the month; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h was 7550.00 yuan / ton, up 3.07% in the month; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S was 7166.67 yuan / ton, up 1.65% in the month. In May, the increase rate of the three varieties of PE was mostly around 100-300 yuan / ton.

On June 1, LLDPE commodity index was 64.64, up 0.95 points from yesterday, down 45.02% from the highest point of 117.56 points in the cycle (December 11, 2013) and up 12.50% from the lowest point of 57.46 points on April 06, 2020. (Note: Period refers to September 1, 2011 to date)

The LDPE commodity index on June 1 was 60.12, up 1.37 points from yesterday, down 46.95% from the highest point of 113.33 points in the cycle (December 08, 2013) and up 10.76% from the lowest point of 54.28 points on April 06, 2020. (Note: Period refers to September 1, 2011 to date)

On June 1, HDPE commodity index was 58.49, up 0.4 points from yesterday, down 42.84% from the highest point of 102.33 points in the cycle (July 24, 2014) and up 7.44% from the lowest point of 54.44 points on April 06, 2020. (Note: Period refers to September 1, 2011 to date)

In May, the price of polyethylene market fluctuated and rose by about 100-300 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the sharp rise in international oil prices, coupled with the rise in Liansu futures, boosted the market mentality. After the May Day long holiday, the market price rose significantly. Most petrochemical enterprises raised their factory prices. Businesses had a good mentality and some of them followed the increase in shipments. Downstream inquiries increased, the market entered the market with higher enthusiasm and the market transaction atmosphere improved. In the later period, CNPC implemented a batch sales policy in North and East China, lowering the guiding price. With the decline in international oil prices, the market mentality was suppressed. The traders were mainly short-sighted about the future market, and their enthusiasm for entering the market weakened. The market transaction atmosphere became weaker. The traders’ mentality became pessimistic. They were more active in allowing profits to stimulate shipments. Market prices entered the downward channel, with HDPE falling most obviously. Subsequently, the international oil price rose sharply and the plastic futures began to fluctuate, once again boosting the spot market. Most petrochemical enterprises raised the ex-factory price and the overall quotation rose until the end of the month.

In May, polyethylene market supply is currently in the PE unit overhaul season. Petrochemical units are being stopped for overhaul one after another. Some units, such as Fujian United and Dushanzi Petrochemical, are being overhauled. Market supply has decreased, bringing support to some parts of the market and the price is relatively firm. However, the second quarter is the low season of demand in polyethylene market, market consumption is weak, and affected by social public health events, downstream factories are recovering slowly, terminal demand continues to decline, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light, which restricts the upward trend of polyethylene price.

Raw material ethylene market rose all the way in May, bringing some favorable support to the polyethylene market. Recently, ethylene has shown an overall upward trend. Prices in the Asian ethylene market rose, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at US$ 715-725 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at US$ 635-645 per ton as of the 28th. European ethylene market prices rose sharply. As of the 28th, European ethylene market prices were US$ 517-527/ton for FD Northwest Europe and US$ 488-496/ton for CIF Northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the U.S. region remained stable, with a price of 255-267 U.S. dollars per ton as of the 28th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States was on an upward trend throughout May, especially in Europe and Asia. The trading atmosphere in the entire ethylene market was active and the market rose all the way, with a large increase, which was also related to the large decline in the ethylene market in the previous period. Operators pay more attention to the supply and demand situation after the holiday.

In terms of futures, linear futures surged in May, boosting the spot market mentality. On may 6, polyethylene futures L2009 opened at 6330, with the highest price of 6485, the lowest price of 6260, the closing price of 6450, the former settlement price of 6110, and the settlement price of 6370, up 340, or 5.56%, with a turnover of 422975, an open position of 352872, and a daily increase of 24497. (Quotation Unit: Yuan/Ton)

On May 29, polyethylene futures L2009 opened at 6585, with the highest price of 6615, the lowest price of 6515, the closing price of 6515, the former settlement price of 6515 and the settlement price of 6560, unchanged from the 28th, with trading volume of 427849, open position of 377239 and daily increase of -30876. (Quotation Unit: Yuan/Ton))

In April 2020, PE imports totaled 1,363,900 tons. Among them, LLDPE imported 406,900 tons, HDPE 696,700 tons and LDPE 260,300 tons. The export volume of PE is 22,400 tons, including 22,000 tons of LLDPE, 67,700 tons of HDPE and 13,700 tons of LDPE, with a cumulative export volume of 89,700 tons.

According to the business news agency’s price monitoring, in the list of commodity prices in may 2020, there were 13 kinds of commodities with rubber and plastic plates rising month on month, of which there were 6 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 35.3% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The top 3 commodities were ABS(13.62%), PC(13.22%) and PVC(12.26%). There were 4 kinds of commodities that declined month-on-month and 2 kinds of commodities that declined by more than 5%, accounting for 11.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The top 3 products were PP (fiber) (-8.82%), PA66(-5.53%) and cis-polybutadiene rubber (-1.12%). This month’s average rise and fall was 3.83%. On the whole, rubber and plastic plates are mostly rising, giving polyethylene a certain boost.

Looking at the future, facing the low season of traditional demand, and under the influence of public health incidents, downstream factories are recovering slowly, terminal demand is limited, and the market transaction atmosphere is sluggish. Although the petrochemical inventory is still at a medium-high level and the consumption will take some time, it is currently in the overhaul season, with more overhaul of petrochemical units and a decrease in market supply. Internationally, crude oil and ethylene both rose, with some support in terms of costs. In addition, the rise in wide-range volatility of linear futures also boosted the market. It is expected that polyethylene market will still have room for growth in June.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic market of PA66 continued to be weak in May, and the quotations of various brands were weak. As of May 31, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 18800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

In May, the price trend of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 continued the weak trend of last month. The price was weak and the market was calm. According to the data of business agency, adipic acid fell by only 0.61% in May, with the increase and decrease of dealers’ quotation mainly showing each other, with the range mostly fluctuating in the range of 100-200 yuan / ton. In terms of upstream cost, the rebound of crude oil is good for downstream petrochemical industry, and pure benzene upstream of adipic acid is also affected by the rebound. However, it did not bring fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the cost transmission has a certain lag effect. On the other hand, in the early February and March, pure benzene dropped by more than 50%. In terms of market supply, the operating rate of enterprises in the whole month remained high, at more than 80%. The supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers have been accumulating inventory, and the inventory pressure remains high. And the delivery strength is not good. At present, although most dealers have returned to normal delivery, the downstream demand has not reached the pre epidemic level. On the whole, the current market has shown a trend of both high enterprise inventory and market inventory, and later market de stocking may continue. In a comprehensive consideration, adipic acid will still shake and adjust at the bottom in the near future, and it will take time to get out of the haze.

The upstream adipic acid did not support the cost side of PA66, and the market price of PA66 continued to be weak. In May, the whole month is green, and the spot market atmosphere is solemn. This month’s 5.53% average price index also showed a slow decline trend. The high frequency of spot price decline was small, which reflected the lack of mentality of the industry and the long-term impact of supply-demand contradiction on PA66. On the supply side, the spot performance of PA66 is still sufficient, and the starting load of downstream plants is low. Recently, PA66 plastic consumer water products are in the off-season, which is also the peak season for maintenance. There are few inquiries in the market, a pessimistic atmosphere, few transaction news, and the main contradiction is still the supply and demand.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in May, the domestic market of PA66 continued to decline. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable at a low level, which is weak to support the PA66 cost side. The rate of downstream factories returning to work still needs to be improved, and PA66′s demand for goods is very limited in the off-season. The background of the contradiction between supply and demand in the market remains unchanged, and the confidence of the operators in the future market is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 market will not improve in the short term.