According to the data of business agency, the weekly average price of industrial grade formic acid in China this week is 2066.67 yuan / ton. The overall formic acid market is stable this week, with little market price fluctuation.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is relatively stable this week, and the overall price remains at the early stage. At present, there is no adjustment between the current price and last week. Device aspect: the manufacturer’s device basically operates normally. In terms of price: this week, the company’s quotation is basically around 2066.67 yuan / ton, the main factory price of formic acid is around 1800 yuan / ton, and the main dealers’ quotation is around 2260 yuan / ton. As of Friday (May 15), Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. has offered 1600 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. 1800 yuan / ton; Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. 2100 yuan / ton; Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. has offered 2300 yuan / ton of 85% formic acid net water.

Industry chain: the market of liquid ammonia, the upstream product of formic acid, has been running steadily, with local prices rising slightly. Recently, the urea market as a whole has remained stable after a small reduction this week, and the overall trend of liquid ammonia has been stable since the beginning of the month. Domestic caustic soda fluctuates little overall. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the downstream products, leather and pesticide industry, have a general demand.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of business association, at present, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is relatively stable, enterprises generally maintain stability and wait-and-see, the downstream demand is general, the market favorable factors are insufficient, and the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is expected to maintain stability in the short term.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, the melamine market is running smoothly this week. As of May 15, the average price of melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week and 5% lower compared with April 1. On the 15th, the mainstream price of melamine market in China was around 4600-5200 yuan / ton. On May 14, the melamine commodity index was 54.48, the same as yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 45.52% from the peak of 100.00 on September 18, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industrial chain: on May 14, the main factory price of small particle urea in Shandong Province was temporarily stable: Ruixing chemical industry quoted 1600 yuan / ton, the quoted price was temporarily stable; Mingshui chemical industry quoted 1630 yuan / ton, the quoted price was temporarily stable; Yangmei plain quoted 1630 yuan / ton, the quoted price was temporarily stable. On the whole, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable on the 14th, and the actual transaction price was subject to negotiation.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 14, 2020, among which ethylene (4.79%), dichloromethane (3.14%) and chloroform (2.86%) are the top three commodities. There are 8 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products with a decline are mixed xylene (- 2.83%), toluene (- 1.73%) and styrene (- 1.58%). The average price of this day is 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business agency, the operation rate of melamine plant has increased slightly in the near future, and the inventory pressure of short-term manufacturers is not large, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market trading atmosphere is general. It is expected that melamine market will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market is on the rise recently. The average price of ethylene on the 13th is 396.75 US dollars / ton, and on the 14th is 415.75 US dollars / ton, up 4.79%. The current price is down 60.43% year on year.

Two, market analysis:

Product: ethylene is on the rise in the near future. Asian ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $565-575 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $465-475 / ton. The price of European ethylene market was volatile and consolidated. As of the 27th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at US $330-362 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $284-292 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region remained stable. As of the 14th, the price was US $229-247 / ton. Generally speaking, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States is bottoming out and rebounding in the near future. The whole ethylene market is fair and the market has recovered. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on May 13, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell, and the settlement price of main contracts was 25.08 yuan / barrel, down $0.65. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, the main contract settlement price at 29.63 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.79 U.S. dollars. Although the oil price fell, the price of ethylene rebounded to the bottom. The demand of the whole industry in Asia increased, and the ethylene market rose accordingly. The price of styrene in the downstream temporarily remained stable and the price of ethanol continued to be high, which supported the price of ethylene, and the ethylene market rose.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analysts of business agency chemical branch, in the near future, European and American stock markets have fallen, and there are still many challenges in the later oil market, and the support for ethylene is not clear, so data analysts of business agency predict that ethylene prices will keep a narrow range consolidation in the future.

According to statistics of business agency, as of May 12, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY reported 15167 yuan / ton, the same as the price at the beginning of the month, down 28.79% year-on-year; nylon POY price was 12620 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, up 0.80%, down 31.41% year-on-year; nylon FDY price was 15750 yuan / ton, stable, down 31.52% year-on-year.

The market expectation of European and American countries to restart economy and the active production reduction of oil producing countries boosted crude oil prices. According to the monitoring of business agency, WTI increased by 112.07% from April 29 to May 11. Crude oil production reduction, the first round of production reduction agreement reached earlier by OPEC + oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is 9.7 million barrels per day for two months starting from May 1. According to data released on May 1 by Baker Hughes, an oil service company in the United States, the number of oil wells in the United States has been active and the total number of wells has decreased, and the number of oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since June 2016. China, Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries have effectively controlled the epidemic. Nearly 20 states in the United States may resume economic activities, and fuel demand may be further recovered.

Product may 1 – May 12 up and down unit

Cyclohexanone 5320 5680 360 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 8533 9900 1367 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 10367 11333 966 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 15750 15750 0 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 15167 15167 0 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 12520 12620 100 yuan / ton

 
Crude oil support, tight supply to raise prices. As of May 12, cyclohexanone rose 360 yuan / ton, or 6.77%; caprolactam rose 1367 yuan / ton, or 16.02%; PA6 rose 966 yuan / ton, or 9.32%. Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, as of May 9, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was increased by 350 yuan / ton, and the listing price was reported as 3100-3500 yuan / ton. Last week, the external offer of cyclohexanone was increased, the market price was reduced, and the price in East China was 5900-6100 yuan / ton in cash. As of May 12, Sinopec’s listing of caprolactam was increased by 1300 to 10000 yuan / ton in May due to the shortage of spot supply and the rise of raw materials.

Before nylon manufacturers as a result of the mask market, the price of products adjusted, experienced a sharp rise and fall after the overall improvement. As for the rise of raw materials, manufacturers must keep up with the quotation, and the difference lies in the timing. Some manufacturers rose during the mask market, but didn’t do their best during the callback. The rise of raw materials just appeased market sentiment and made the price reasonable. Other manufacturers follow the script completely, the raw materials rise, and the quotation keeps up, but only limited to the products with better delivery conditions, and the price adjustment action of general demand is less.

Analysts of business cooperatives believe that the cost of crude oil production reduction and consumption expectation recovery have strong support if nothing unexpected happens. At the same time, the economy in Europe and the United States is expected to restart. China’s textile export data in April shows that the textile industry is expected to try to increase nylon in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market rebounded slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 2496.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 2543.33 yuan / ton, up 1.87% in the week, 22.30% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On Tuesday, the trading atmosphere of methyl ether (Henan) market improved. As of May 9, Hebei Yutai, Shanxi orchid, Dezhou shengdeyuan and other devices had been shut down for maintenance; Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether device failed, so no offer was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 2520 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 2550 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2730 yuan / ton, that of Henan lankaohuitong is 2560 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 2520 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market rebounded slightly, with the operating rate around 15%. During the May 1st Festival, it was not active to enter the market with the mentality of “buying up and not buying down” in the downstream market. The manufacturer delivered goods generally, and the price continued to decline. After the festival, the continuous rise of international crude oil boosted the gas market, the rise of liquefied gas generally, and the rebound of cost methanol, which led to the rise of dimethyl ether. The lower reaches of the market are enthusiastic, the purchasing is more active, the market transaction atmosphere is better than the earlier stage, and the price is the main actor.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are WTI crude oil (21.78%), Brent crude oil (8.31%) and liquefied gas (8.08%). There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with gasoline (- 3.33%), diesel (- 1.52%) and naphtha (- 1.47%) as the top three products. This week’s average was up or down 3.03%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the weakness of international crude oil has fallen, hitting the market mentality, and the civil use of liquefied gas has been reduced, which is bad for the market. Downstream mentality is cautious, after the completion of replenishment, it mainly consumes inventory after delisting, which is expected to be lowered in the short term or weak in the future.