1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream domestic styrene price fell first and then rose this week, but it still fell by 8.93% compared with last Friday. On Monday (December 14), the price of sample enterprises of business agency was 7366.67 yuan / ton, while on Friday (December 18), the price of sample enterprises was 6916.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.11%. The price fell by 7.37% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
The market price of styrene fell first and then rose this week. On December 14, East China styrene closed at around 7300-7400 yuan / ton, and on December 18, 6800-7000 yuan / ton, down by 500 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang export price. On December 14, South China styrene closed at 8100 yuan / ton, and on December 18, 7600 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton, and the prices of the above factories were delivered. Generally speaking, styrene showed a situation of first falling and then rising this week.
In terms of raw materials, crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range during the week, and the overall price rose. In terms of pure benzene, the price of pure benzene showed a downward trend, following the trend of styrene. As of Friday (December 18), the mainstream quotation of pure benzene was 4486.00 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton or 0.44% from 4506.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 14).
In terms of ethylene, the international oil price rose, ethylene cost was strongly supported, and the price rose steadily. As of Friday (December 18), the mainstream ethylene price was 981.25 yuan / ton, up 20.5 yuan / ton or 2.13% from 960.75 yuan / ton on Monday (December 14).
In terms of inventory, the total inventory in East China continued to decline sharply this week, with total inventory of 41200 tons in East China this week, down 40.08% from 69600 tons last week. The closure of the Yangtze River has delayed the arrival of styrene cargo. In terms of domestic styrene, the styrene operating rate decreased slightly this week, with an average operating rate of 78.2% last week and a decrease of 0.18% to 78.02% this week. The overall social inventory remains low, and market supply is expected to continue to decline.
Downstream, the overall price of styrene in the lower reaches of this week, but still maintain considerable production and marketing profits. In the PS market, as of Friday (December 18), the mainstream ex factory price of PS in East China was 9500.00 yuan / ton, down 633.33 yuan / ton or 6.25% from 10133.33 yuan / ton on Monday (December 14). Affected by the continuous weakening of styrene price, the bearish mentality of PS market appears, the atmosphere of market price reduction and shipment is strong, and the actual transaction is weak.
As of Friday (December 18), the mainstream EPS ex factory quotation in East China was 8950.00 yuan / ton, down 750 yuan / ton or 7.733% from 9700.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 14). The continuous fall of styrene price led to the downward trend of EPS market price. In addition, due to the influence of limited power supply, environmental protection and orders in some downstream areas of EPS, the overall operation was insufficient, the demand for EPS was weak, the market supply circulation was slow, the market bearish mentality was obvious, the market transaction was mainly small orders, and the overall trading performance of the market was poor.
In the ABS market, as of Friday (December 18), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 16750.00 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton or 0.89% from 16900.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 14). On the one hand, the domestic ABS market this week was driven by the fall of styrene price, which resulted in insufficient cost support. On the other hand, affected by containers, some home appliances exports were affected, which led to the increase of ABS inventory. Some ABS petrochemical plants had accumulated stocks, leading to the reduction of ex factory prices.
3、 Future prospects
The strong crude oil finishing has a support for the cost side of styrene. The delay of shipping schedule leads to the continuous de stocking of the wharf to the historical low level. The situation of styrene supply side is generally acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak. The mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, and the gas purchase is insufficient. If the terminal unsealing is delayed, styrene will be strongly supported in the short term, so it is necessary to pay attention to the arrival of imported vessels. It is expected that the styrene market will change greatly next week, with a wide range of 7300-7800 yuan / ton.
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