The domestic acrylonitrile price began to consolidate horizontally at the end of April, and on May 13th, this stalemate was finally broken. Manufacturers’ quoted prices showed a slight increase. As of May 16th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports remained at 8500-8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 300-400 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market remains at around 8350-8500 yuan/ton, up 400-450 yuan/ton from last week.
Before and after the May Day holiday, the acrylonitrile market was in a state of weak supply-demand balance, with some equipment maintenance leading to tight supply. However, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories was controllable, and coupled with no significant improvement in downstream demand, the operating rate of the main downstream ABS industry was only 69%. Manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices and weak demand balanced each other, and the transaction center of East China ports remained in the range of 8100-8300 yuan/ton. Entering this week, local spot supply has tightened, and factories have shown a clear willingness to raise prices under low profits, thus driving the spot market up to 8500-8600 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the price of raw material propylene continues to rise, with the mainstream price in Shandong region ranging from 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and cost pressure is transmitted to the acrylonitrile production end.
At present, the profit situation of the acrylonitrile industry is not optimistic. On the one hand, the demand for terminal home appliances and the automotive market appears weak, and the resistance to high priced raw materials continues to rise. Downstream industries such as ABS and acrylic continue to have low operating rates. On the other hand, the supply of acrylonitrile is increasing. Due to multiple factors, the upward potential of acrylonitrile prices is limited, and profit margins are squeezed. Since March, acrylonitrile factories have been in a loss making state, and their willingness to repair profits is very strong.
It is worth noting that the suspension of tariffs between China and the United States is limited to 90 days. If no consensus is reached in subsequent negotiations, companies may face a second round of “export competition” pressure, leading to increased supply chain fluctuations. In terms of terminals, export orders in small household appliances, consumer electronics and other fields have rebounded rapidly, and enterprises have locked in profits by stocking up in advance. The demand for some nitrile gloves will also increase significantly.
However, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has a start-up plan in June, and coupled with the successful trial production of the 260000 ton/year unit of Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical in April, the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will be greatly increased, and the supply increment will enter an accelerated release stage. The increment brought by the new unit’s commissioning far exceeds the periodic shutdown loss, and the supply side pressure is enormous. On the other hand, downstream industries such as acrylic fiber and acrylamide only maintain rigid demand, making it difficult to absorb new production capacity.
Overall, factories have reacted quickly to the recent increase in acrylonitrile prices, and the spot market has mostly followed the factory’s upward trend. However, due to limited downstream substantial demand, although the acrylonitrile market price will increase significantly in the short term, the sustainability of the upward trend is not stable, and caution should be exercised in the operation process.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on May 15th was 1060 yuan/ton, which was 1.24% lower than the average price of 1073 yuan/ton on May 9th.
2、 Market analysis
The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has fallen this week. The operating rate of coke enterprises does not fluctuate significantly, and some caprolactam enterprises are operating at a reduced load. This week, the bidding price for coking grade ammonium sulfate has been lowered, and the price for domestic grade ammonium sulfate has slightly decreased. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market is light, and downstream inquiries have decreased. Therefore, caution and observation are the main focus. As of May 15th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 990 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1045-1090 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. At present, downstream demand for replenishment is high, and there is resistance to high prices, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 14th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6850 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% lower than the reference average price of 6890 yuan/ton on May 6th.
2、 Market analysis
Market Aspects
The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have fallen this week. As of May 14th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6550-7000 yuan/ton, while in Sichuan region, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6700-7300 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the yellow phosphorus market has experienced a decline, with bearish sentiment dominating the market. At present, trading in the yellow phosphorus market is light, and downstream inquiries have decreased. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus market price will continue to be weak in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been weak and declining recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, and cost support has weakened. Phosphoric acid has also decreased with the trend of raw material prices. At present, the trading in the phosphoric acid market is flat, and downstream demand for replenishment is urgent. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

Recently (5.1-5.12), the butadiene rubber market has slightly improved. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 12th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12010 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.50% from 11950 yuan/ton at the beginning of May. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; The production of butadiene rubber has increased, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased; In April, the production of semi steel tires in the downstream remained stable, while the production of all steel tires slightly decreased, which slightly weakened the support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of April 29th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11850-12250 yuan/ton.
Recently (5.1-5.12), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 12th, the price of butadiene was 9333 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% from 9066 yuan/ton at the beginning of May.
Recently (5.1-5.12), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has significantly increased, with the overall construction rate rising from around 6.70% at the end of April to around 7.50%, resulting in increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber.
Demand side: Recently (5.1-5.12), downstream tire production has significantly decreased, which has weakened the support for the butadiene rubber market. As of May 9th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 5.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 4.5%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of butadiene will slightly increase in the short term, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will still be weak; The decline in downstream production has a bearish impact on Shunding Rubber, with weak transactions. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding Rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7500 yuan/ton on May 6th and 7428 yuan/ton on May 12th, a decrease of 0.96% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9216 yuan/ton on May 6th and 9116 yuan/ton on May 12th, a decrease of 1.08% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8112 yuan/ton on May 6th and 8112 yuan/ton on May 12th, during which the quotation remained stable.
The polyethylene market in May was mainly weak, with strong quotes for low-pressure products. After the May Day holiday, upstream enterprises and intermediaries accumulated inventory and faced significant inventory pressure, prompting businesses to actively reduce prices and ship goods; The demand for greenhouse film is low during the off-season, and the order volume is not good. Some enterprises mainly focus on phased production; The peak season for plastic film demand has ended, and except for a few areas with a small number of orders, large-scale areas have been in a state of shutdown for maintenance; The number of new orders in the packaging film market has decreased, and the intention to purchase for terminal essential needs has weakened; The demand side support is insufficient, and there are positive expectations from the macro perspective. On May 9th, international crude oil futures rose, but the cost side support was average. It is expected that polyethylene will operate weakly in a narrow range, with limited downward space.