I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of the end of the week was 7366.67 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.38% from 7266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

On November 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 69.40, which was the same as yesterday, 43.88% lower than 123.67 (December 26, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and 23.55% higher than 56.17, the lowest point on February 16, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. This week, most of the major domestic maleic anhydride plants are in normal operation, and the main domestic production plants are in high price operation. The main production areas are limited in stock, driving the domestic maleic anhydride market price.

Industrial chain: the international crude oil rose slightly, the downstream unsaturated resin operated stably, and the terminal demand was general. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the weak trend of pure benzene this week fell, and the price of pure benzene on Friday was 5250-5351 yuan / ton. This week’s Hydrogenated benzene market is dominated by wait-and-see. On Friday, the price in East China is about 5250 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 5100 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane is hovering at a low price, maintaining stable operation temporarily. The price of domestic main production plants is relatively high, and the spot goods in main production areas are limited, which drives the market price of domestic maleic anhydride.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 47th week of 2019 (11.25-11.29), there are 18 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices of chemical industry, the top three commodities are acetone (4.84%), isopropanol (4.47%) and hydrofluoric acid (3.85%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are dichloromethane (- 12.99%), trichloromethane (- 9.80%) and ammonium chloride (- 6.76%). This week’s average was – 0.4%.

III. future forecast

At present, although there is no inventory pressure in maleic anhydride plant, the demand is off-season, and the maleic anhydride market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term.

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated in November. At the beginning of the month, the average factory price including tax of the mainstream light potash in China was 6437.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average factory price including tax of the mainstream light potash in China was 6375.00 yuan / ton, down 0.97%. The current price dropped 7.78% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in November, the market of potassium carbonate declined in a weak way. On November 4, Wenshui Zhenfeng Agricultural Materials Co., Ltd. adjusted its price by 100 yuan / ton, 6500 yuan / ton after adjustment. On November 26, Wentong potash Group Co., Ltd. adjusted its price by 200 yuan / ton, 6200 yuan / ton after adjustment. Due to the fact that the price consolidation of upstream raw material potassium chloride had no supporting effect on the price of potassium carbonate, the market of potassium carbonate declined in a weak way. Meanwhile, it was required to The demand side is weak and the price adjustment is not large. Part of the manufacturer’s devices are shut down for maintenance, the market momentum of low inventory purchasing is general, and the quotation is mainly down. According to the statistics of business agency: in November, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts believe that the recent trading atmosphere of potash fertilizer market is relatively cold and the transaction is average. In the short term, the price of potash will remain weak. The long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by the demand side.

According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China has increased slightly. The price of hydrofluoric acid in China has risen to 9700 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid has increased. Due to the decrease of fluorite market supply and the improvement of refrigerant market in the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded higher.

The price of hydrofluoric acid in China has increased. In the near future, the factory’s delivery is normal. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much. For the domestic hydrofluoric acid market to purchase on demand, the operating rate of the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant is about 60%, the domestic spot supply is normal, and the domestic price trend has increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, and the northern market The price of hydrofluoric acid is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China has risen, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers has generally gone, and the market price has rebounded. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is about 9000-10000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, that in Inner Mongolia is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and that in hydrofluoric acid market is rising.

In the near future, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid remains high. The ex factory price of fluorite in China is 2861.11 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite plant is in normal operation. The mine and flotation plant in the field are in normal operation. The supply of fluorite in the field is normal. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream remains low. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is general, which leads to the temporary stability of the market price trend. The high price of fluorite brings certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. However, in the near future, fluorite supply has decreased, fluorite prices remain high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been affected.

In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market may usher in a “turning point”.

In recent years, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant units has not changed much, but the quotation of downstream refrigerants has increased. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the near future has decreased, and fluorite price remains high, which has a certain positive support for the market price of hydrofluoric acid. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the future may continue to rise slightly.

I. price trend:

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, in late November, the market of PA6 in China was weak and stable, with some brand quotations falling. As of November 22, the main offer price of CCCC 2.75-2.85 was about 12733.33 yuan / ton, down 1.55% from the beginning of the week.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The decline of caprolactam upstream of PA6 has continued since November. At present, caprolactam production enterprises are losing money and the operating rate of production units is decreasing. Raw material pure benzene prices fell this month, domestic bearish sentiment increased. In East China, pure benzene market negotiation went higher, some offers were slightly higher, port inventory remained low, the external price of pure benzene continued to rise and boost, it was difficult to find low price supply in the market, and the short-term market was strong. China’s cyclohexanone market plunged sharply, and the intention to make up the position of terminal demand was low, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see, and the trading volume of chemical fiber single and solvent single in the market was small. Due to the pressure of inventory and delivery, the mainstream factories keep reducing their quotations. Domestic caprolactam upstream raw material product supply increase cost support weakened, downstream procurement cautious. Although the output has declined, there are many stocks in the market at present, the market supply exceeds the demand, and the terminal demand is insufficient. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to fall in the later period, and the upstream caprolactam will continue to weaken, weakening the support for PA6. At present, the market demand for PA6 has not improved, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not good, the on-site trading is light, the factory traders operate cautiously, and the confidence is not strong. There are few large-scale purchases in the domestic market in the near future.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: the recent domestic PA6 market weak and stable adjustment operation, some spot prices slightly reduced. The trend of caprolactam in the upstream is not good, and the support for PA6 cost end is not good. The downstream replenishment operation is cautious, with rigid demand as the main factor. PA6 is expected to remain weak in the near future.

In recent years, the price of rare earth in China has continued to rise, but the market price of some rare earth products is still at a low level.

Recently, the domestic market price of heavy rare earth rebounded. As of the 25th, the price of dysprosium oxide rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1.61 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.6 million yuan / ton; the market price of some light rare earth also rose, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 2500 yuan / ton to 286500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy rose by 2500 yuan / ton to 363000 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide The price increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 284500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounded higher, and the market price of light rare earth stopped falling. Affected by the favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market has improved.

On November 24, the rare earth index was 334, the same as yesterday, 66.60% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.25% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of Rare Earth continues to rise, the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market rises, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth has improved, and the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounds and rises. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products has stopped falling, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world. Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. In addition, recently the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that in 2019, the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while in 2018, the quota of rare earth mining was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and in 2019, this The data is the highest since 2014. The supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China’s domestic demand has improved, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.