I. price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market rose slightly in early December, while the spot price in the domestic market rose narrowly. As of December 6, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, up 1.53% from the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: ABS upstream, domestic styrene market slightly explored. In recent days, crude oil and bulk commodities rose steadily and rebounded, driving the market to open higher, and styrene market rebounded. The international prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene increased slightly. In the downstream, PS, the price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream factories are not willing to prepare goods. Most transactions are based on small orders. In terms of EPS, the price is stable, the downstream replenishment intention is poor, and the overall transaction atmosphere is general. Styrene gradually entered the off-season, the enterprise multi-dimensional rigid procurement, general demand performance. Recently, a large number of imported styrene arrived at the port due to the early channel blockade and the subsequent continuous arrival of imported goods. Recently, the styrene inventory in East China rose, bringing resistance to the rebound of the domestic styrene market. On the whole, it is expected that styrene price rebound this week will be limited, while in the short term, it is still bearish and the price will be consolidated;

In the near future, the spot market of acrylonitrile related products has been warmer, the supply of goods in the field has been reduced, the mentality of traders has been supported, and the offer is firm and partially higher. Although the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is the mainstream, but near the logistics outage, the factory has a certain demand for goods. The acrylonitrile market is expected to rise slightly in the short term;

Butadiene supply price is stable, the market is weak, the information surface guidance is limited, the downstream inquiry continues to be cold, and the offer changes little, mainly wait-and-see. The price of the outside market remained stable. In terms of market, the butadiene market in East China continued to be cold, with low enthusiasm for downstream procurement, limited market turnover, real single negotiation and price consolidation. The butadiene market in Shandong Province has limited changes and stable supply and demand. There is no obvious guidance on the news. The business is mainly waiting and the transaction is cold. The domestic offer price of SBR in the downstream increased slightly, and the operators were cautious. In some areas, the buyer had the behavior of price reduction, but the transaction was not much. Domestic br market is stable. The price offered by the merchants is stable, and the intention of low price shipment is not high. The inquiry atmosphere in the field is flat, and sporadic buyers enter the market for inquiry, and the volume of spot trading is small. There is not much spot circulation in the butadiene market, but the demand continues to be cold and the supply and demand remain stagnant. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may maintain stable consolidation;

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early December, the ABS market maintained a positive trend, the offer was warm, and the spot prices of various brands rose differently. The cost side of the upstream three materials continued to be adjusted in November, which has certain support for the cost side. On the demand side, it is close to the logistics outage, and there is another news that dangerous chemicals are restricted. Measures such as strict inspection of freight vehicles have resulted in tight logistics and rising costs. The price inquiry of downstream factories has been improved to some extent, but it is still dominated by just in need replenishment. Merchants’ mentality is stable for the time being, and the delivery is based on the market. It is expected that the domestic ABS market will continue to be more positive in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the supply side trend.

I. price trend

The domestic BDO market is in a strong operation. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of December 5, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9780 yuan / ton, up 2.73% month on month, down 7.74% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic BDO market is in a strong operation, the spot supply is limited, the firm price intention of the factory is high, the quotation is high, the downstream small single enters the market, which mostly contradicts the high price, and the market negotiation atmosphere is relatively stalemate. At present, some of the devices have not produced products after the maintenance, and the spot supply is not large. With the support of the factory’s market mentality, some small single negotiations tend to be high-end, and the focus of actual single delivery is stable and moving up. The factory has no final conclusion on the matter of marketing control, most of which have not been signed for a long time next year. The downstream is waiting for the clear news, and the operators are also cautious to wait and see.

In terms of the market, the BDO market in North China was in a high-level consolidation, and the factory had a strong attitude towards the market. The downstream just needed to make up the position. The buying enthusiasm was low, and the resistance to high prices was strong, and the on-site waiting atmosphere was strong. The BDO market in East China was narrowed and the on-site start-up load was slightly increased. However, the factory inventory was not under pressure, and the intention to support the market continued. The offer from the middlemen was stable, the downstream demand was general, the price depression was strong, and the on-site small single negotiation price was on the high side. The BDO market in South China was in shock and consolidation, the downstream demand was weak, the buying enthusiasm was low, the factory’s intention to keep the price was high, the price was low, and the atmosphere of large single negotiation was relatively cold.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the inventory of local upstream enterprises in the mainland increased this week, local arbitrage closed, and the enterprise mentality weakened. Downstream enterprises are cautious in receiving goods, and most traders wait and see. Due to the influence of gas limitation, the gas head devices in southwest and other places are gradually stopped, and the port continues to drop to the reservoir. The mentality of the operators is supported. In the short term, methanol market in China is dominated by narrow range finishing.

Calcium carbide: it is expected that the mainstream of calcium carbide market will keep stable operation, and the market will enter the de stocking stage. Affected by the pressure of profit and loss, the start-up of gas enterprises is at a low level, but the downstream demand is expected to increase in December, so the current calcium carbide furnace with load reduction and shutdown is ready to move. The roads in Wumeng area are gradually restored, the arrival of goods in Hebei area is on the rise, and the enterprises are mainly stable. Cangzhou area recently began to purchase calcium carbide, the demand has increased, aggravating the market wait-and-see. It is expected that with the acceleration of de stocking speed in Wuhai area, the market inflation mentality will increase, and local enterprises will rise in a narrow range.

III. future forecast

On the whole, on the positive side, the manufacturers are willing to support the market, and some of them are under maintenance. On the negative side, downstream demand is weak. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will be narrowed, with specific attention to the restart of Tianye and downstream buying.

According to the monitoring of the business agency: since November, the hydrogen peroxide market has entered a cold winter, falling to the bottom, and the price has dropped nearly 15%. In December, the market still did not improve. As of December 4, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1170 yuan / ton, down 20.23% from the beginning of November, and the decline was further expanded to more than 20%.

market analysis

From November, the terminal performance was poor, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer started to work at full capacity, the supply exceeded the demand, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to fall, the market continued to be depressed, until December, the price was still exploring, the average price fell below 1200 yuan / ton. As of December 4, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong: Shandong Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has 27.5% hydrogen peroxide of 1120 yuan / ton; Shandong Haineng has 27.5% hydrogen peroxide of 1240 yuan / ton; the price is 40-80 yuan / ton lower than that in early December.

Hebei Province: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 1150 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton lower than that in early December.

Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 1250 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton lower than that in early December.

Hunan: Hunan Shuangyang 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 1300 yuan / ton; the price is the same as that in early December.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 1400 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than the price in early December.

Industry chain: terminal caprolactam continued to fall sharply, down nearly 10%. Due to the poor market of raw material cyclohexanone, sluggish market of terminal PA6, loss of caprolactam, negative reduction of production by manufacturers, continuous drop of price, continuous sharp drop of downstream caprolactam, sluggish demand for hydrogen peroxide by manufacturers of caprolactam, high operating rate of their own, oversupply, difficult to find the bottom of the price of hydrogen peroxide, and continuous bottoming.

Outlook for the future

Hydrogen peroxide analysts of the business club think: in December, hydrogen peroxide still has a downward trend, terminal demand is difficult to change in a short period of time, and oversupply or will continue. The price of hydrogen peroxide in the future is weak and weak.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province fluctuated greatly in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong Province was 1960 yuan / ton, the highest value in the middle of the month was 2650 yuan / ton, an increase of 35.2%. At the end of the month, it fell to 2300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.21% compared with the highest value, and the overall increase in the month was 17.35%.

II. Cause analysis

Product reason: at the beginning of November, affected by the low level of construction in the region, Shandong continued to rise at the end of October, the price of chloroform soared all the way, and the market started at a low level. Among them, 280000t / a plant maintenance in Dongyue, Shandong Province was completed in the middle of November, 440000t / a plant maintenance in Jinling, Shandong Province was completed in the middle of November, and Luxi Chemical industry continued to carry out 60% of foreign trade orders, and the spot supply in the industry was tight, which was completed in the middle of the month After that, all enterprises resumed normal production. In addition, the supply of Dongying Jinmao No.1 40000 t / a plant was increasing gradually. In addition, the price of chloroform in Shandong continued to decline in the traditional low season of chloroform. At present, the price in the region is about 2200 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Liwen is about 2850 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 3800 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market is restrained first and then lifted, with obvious regional trend, with an overall decline of 1.48% in the month. At present, 2145 yuan / ton is around; the liquid chlorine market is operated by supply promotion, with a downward shock in the month, and the enterprise’s quotation continues to decline. At present, about 200-500 yuan / ton is over reported, and some enterprises still stick to shipping. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in the traditional off-season, the market share of rationing basically bottomed out, and rebounded within the month; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of chloroform is generally supported.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%).

III. future forecast

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, at present, trichloromethane is in the traditional off-season, the downstream market demand is not good and there is no obvious sign of recovery in a short period of time. In addition, the supply of trichloromethane in Shandong Province is gradually recovering. Under the condition that the supply exceeds the demand, the price of trichloromethane is expected to gradually decline.

I. price trend:

In November 2019, crude benzene market went up all the way. The factory price in North China was 4145 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4293.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.58%.

On November 30, crude benzene commodity index was 68.75, flat with yesterday, 47.85% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 75.16% higher than 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: in the first half of November, affected by the poor delivery of pure benzene market, the overall trend of crude benzene industry chain declined, and the market price decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. The poor delivery of pure benzene market significantly depressed the crude benzene market, and the crude benzene market as a whole was stable, moderate and small. About the middle of the year, the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises began to resume operation. The demand for raw material crude benzene is increasing. Due to factors such as limited production in heating season, coking enterprises are facing tight spot supply in the market, and the crude benzene market is rising steadily under the influence of multiple favorable factors. In the late November, in order to maintain stable production, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have better purchase of crude benzene. At present, the coking enterprises are starting to decline, and the supply of crude benzene market is slightly tight. With the increase of hydrogenated benzene enterprises starting to work at the end of the month, the crude benzene market is increasing The demand for benzene has further increased. The bidding price of crude benzene has remained high and consolidated near the end of the month, and there is limited space for the short-term decline of crude benzene.

Industry chain: crude oil: crude oil in this month showed an overall upward trend of shock, WTI oil price increased by 7.25% compared with last month, Brent oil price increased by 6.04% compared with last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced. Pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

3. Trend forecast:

East China is greatly affected by the export of pure benzene. The port petroleum benzene inventory is relatively low. The export of pure benzene continues to rise, boosting the market. The hydrogenated benzene enterprises are mostly in a loss state in the near future, but the start-up is relatively stable. The supply of the upstream coking enterprises is slightly tight in the near future, and the price of crude benzene is relatively strong in the short term due to multiple factors.