I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as shown in the figure above, copper prices have gone through an “inverted V” trend in the past month and experienced a small roller coaster. Throughout this year’s copper trend, copper is now at a lower position in the year. Since reaching its highest position in the year at the end of March, copper prices have fallen more than once, with an amplitude of 8.61%. As of August 6, copper was trading at 46146.67 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day.

According to the current copper futures table of business associations, the spot price of copper in the near future is higher than the main contract price for most of the time. The main contract price is the price of copper in the next two months. The spot price is higher than the main contract price of copper, indicating that people are not optimistic about the future price of copper.

Sino-US trade disputes continue to escalate and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar breaks the “7″

U.S. President Trump said last week that he would impose more tariffs on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth $300 billion, which, if implemented, could further reduce China’s exports by 2.7% and drag down China’s GDP growth by 50 basis points. China has vowed to fight back to end a month-long trade truce between the world’s two largest economies. The trade war will be a protracted war that will lead to the emergence of our bear market fundamentals in most commodity prices.

For the first time in more than a decade, China has allowed the renminbi to break through the 7-yuan guaranteed export data against the dollar, a sign that Beijing may be willing to allow the renminbi to weaken further, which may further exacerbate trade conflicts. Trade disputes are believed to weaken economic growth and hit demand for metals, escalating disputes and damaging market sentiment.

Weak terminal demand

Retail sales in the passenger car market fell 16% year-on-year in July from 1 to 4 weeks, significantly lower than the 5% growth rate in June to 4 weeks, according to the CRC data. Recent copper rod, copper pipe, copper sheet and foil processing industry start-up rate last year has declined to a certain extent, especially copper sheet and foil start-up rate dropped by nearly 10%, indicating poor downstream demand. The main reason for the slump in terminal consumption is that the investment in power grid, which accounts for the first proportion of consumption, dropped by 19.3% in January-June compared with the same period last year, and the start-up rate of wire and cable enterprises declined more.

Data from Citigroup Demand Tracker showed that the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing had a particularly significant impact on copper, with copper use in the world’s largest consumer shrinking sharply for the first time since 2015.

Supply is still tight

Upstream copper supply is still tight, copper processing costs continue to decline, and imports of scrap copper are limited in July 2019. In the second batch of copper scrap policies, the total amount of six kinds of copper scrap import approvals in the second batch was 124,500 tons, which was 48.2% lower than that in the first batch of 240,000 tons. The data showed that the imports of the vast majority of enterprises receiving the approvals were the same as that of last year’s average quarterly imports. However, in view of the implementation of the solid waste import ban at the end of 2020, the classification of resources is still under discussion. The key is whether the brass can be imported or not. There is not much suspense about dividing copper into resource categories. Assuming that brass can not enter the Chinese market, there will be a gap of nearly 300,000-400,000 tons of metal.

In summary, in the case of relatively loose supply, consumption off-season and macro-economy can not support a sharp rise in copper prices, macro-negative, short-term copper prices are not optimistic, and the expected price fluctuation is between 44,000 and 48,000 yuan/ton.

Price trends:

The price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in July, according to data from business associations. As of July 31, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 6 033.33 yuan/ton, which was 5 100.00 yuan/ton compared with that quoted by acetic anhydride at the beginning of the month, with an increase of 18.30%. The price of acetic anhydride fell by 15.77% compared with that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In July, the domestic acetic anhydride ex-factory quotation rose sharply, and the market transaction price rose. As of July 31, most of the region’s ex-factory quotation is 6700-7000 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price has risen, the market quotation is the reference price, and the actual transaction price is based on actual negotiation. Hualu Hengsheng acetic anhydride equipment parking, Henan Ronghua chemical acetic anhydride parking, Huzhou acetic anhydride factory equipment maintenance, Jiachi chemical acetic anhydride equipment parking, acetic anhydride factory equipment start-up rate low maintenance, factory inventory is limited, acetic anhydride downstream sales situation is general, starting in mid-late July, acetic anhydride factory parking maintenance, short supply of acetic anhydride. Lack of acetic anhydride, sufficient momentum to rise. However, with the end of equipment overhaul of acetic anhydride manufacturers, the start-up rate of acetic anhydride equipment has increased, the price of acetic anhydride is bound to fall, and the momentum for the rise of acetic anhydride in the future is insufficient.

Factor analysis of industrial chain:

As can be seen from the chart, acetic acid experienced a short period of price inflation in July, which was mainly caused by the explosion of Yima Gasification Plant in Henan Province. The explosion in Henan Yima Gasification Plant led to a sharp rise in the price of acetic acid, which supported the rise of acetic anhydride. At the same time, the explosion caused the state to intensify the inspection of production safety, which had an impact on the equipment production of chemical enterprises, resulting in a sharp rise in acetic acid prices. However, due to the general demand for acetic acid in the near future, the overall supply of acetic acid is sufficient, and the momentum for acetic acid to rise is insufficient, acetic acid has not formed a sustained upward momentum, and the pressure for acetic acid to fall in the future is greater. The price of acetic acid declined in the future, which made the market of acetic anhydride more bearish.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business associations, believes that the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in July, mainly due to two factors: the low start-up rate of acetic anhydride equipment and the insufficient supply of acetic anhydride, which led to a sharp rise in prices; the explosion in Yima, Henan Province, which caused a sharp rise in acetic anhydride prices, and the rise in raw material prices. In terms of demand, acetic anhydride demand is general, customers purchase on demand, high-price acetic anhydride resistance psychology is greater, acetic anhydride market is negative. In the future, the price of acetic acid began to decline, the cost of acetic anhydride lost its support, and the pressure of future decline increased. Last weekend, Hualu Hengsheng Shengsheng acetic anhydride equipment was repaired and restarted. The acetic anhydride equipment of other enterprises in the future will also start construction one after another. The supply of acetic anhydride will gradually increase, the shortage of acetic anhydride supply will be alleviated, and acetic anhydri Support, the downward pressure of the future market increased. In summary, the future market of acetic anhydride has limited space to rise, and it is expected that the future market of acetic anhydride will mainly fall.

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend slightly declined this week, the price at the end of the weekend was 11610 yuan/ton, down 3.25% from 12,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and up 5.23% from the same period last year.

Products: This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid is declining. Enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the recent market is poor. Some enterprises have normal start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant, and the price trend of factory is slightly declining. Recently, the start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is normal. At present, hydrogen in the southern region is normal. The main stream of fluoric acid negotiations is 10500-11500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11000-12000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant industry has maintained a low start-up rate. The supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend in the field has declined. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was around 10 500-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 11 000-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was between 10 500-11 000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid declined.

Industry chain: The price trend of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. The price of fluorite is 312.5 yuan per ton by the end of the week. The fluorite trend is stable this week. The recent start-up of fluorite plant has not changed much. On the whole, the supply of fluorite is normal, the price trend of fluorite is stable, and the high price of raw materials in the upstream brings one to the hydrofluoric acid market. Influenced by fixed cost support, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was slightly lower due to the bad market. Recent downstream refrigerant product units started at a low level, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is not good, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is poor, the price of hydrofluoric acid products slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, R22 refrigerant plant surface start at 60%, R22 market device start rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the shipping market trend is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid does not change much. Aluminum fluoride price trend of downstream products is temporarily stable in the near future, which is 10 333.33 yuan per ton at the weekend. The price trend is temporarily stable. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining due to the poor market.

Industry: This week, the spot supply of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream market is normal, and the refrigerant trade in the downstream market is normal, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate has maintained a low level, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid has decreased, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the raw material market price has a downward trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be slightly lower next week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be around 11,000 yuan/ton.

Price trends:

In July 2019, the hydrobenzene market shook sharply. The ex-factory price in North China was 4583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 4950 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 8%.

On July 31, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 54.64, down 1.1 points from yesterday, down 46.44% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 22.62% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: Hydrobenzene market first restrained and then rose by 8% monthly. In the first half of this month, the price continued to rise, mainly due to the increase of pure benzene external market and Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene. Hydrobenzene market has been rising positively. Shandong’s market price has risen to 5250-5350 yuan/ton all the way, together with coke price. The profit of coking enterprises is still acceptable, the start-up level is relatively stable, and the supply of crude benzol in the upstream remains stable. The whole crude benzol industry chain is on the rise. After mid-ten days, with the downstream demand has not been liberalized, on-site supply is still more abundant, low-level supply increases, downstream just need to enter the market price pressure is obvious, coking enterprises have greater pressure on goods, although the price of pure benzene listed has not changed much, but the lack of strong support, prices began to decline.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: In July, European and American crude oil prices rose first and then fell. Oil distribution fell 4.27% from the end of last month, while U.S. crude oil fell 2.74% from the end of last month. At the beginning of this month, oil prices rose to their highest level on July 10 due to the extension of OPEC production reduction agreement, the continuous decline of U.S. crude oil stocks and the reduction of nearly one third of U.S. offshore crude oil production by the Gulf of Mexico storm. Oil and gas production resumed after the Gulf of Mexico storm. EIA data show that the increase in U.S. refined oil inventories has deepened market concerns about economic slowdown and oil prices have fallen sharply. At the end of the month, the Fed’s desire to cut interest rates increased and crude oil prices in Europe and the United States rebounded slightly. Pure Benzene: Pure Benzene port inventory fell sharply and imports fell sharply, domestic pure benzene prices began to rise. In addition to the shortage of pure benzene supply in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk has been rising, stimulating the domestic market, pure benzene all the way up to the highest price on the 22nd. Later downstream of high-price pure benzene resistance is strong, the demand support is insufficient, the external market continued to weaken, leading to a rapid decline in domestic pure benzene Market prices.

3. Trend forecast:

At the end of the month, traders concentrate on delivering goods, and the market enters the downward range. The atmosphere in the market is poor. Most traders are short-sighted, not enthusiastic and have limited actual transactions. In addition, the market has a downward expectation of Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price, and it is expected that the market will remain short-sighted in the near future.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend was temporarily stable in July. At the end of the month, the average price was 1966.67 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the initial price of 1966.67 yuan/ton, down 0.97% year on year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: The price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable in July. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shut down more and domestic ammonium nitrate plant started less. However, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry after the Spring Festival, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field remains low. As of the end of the month, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was 1850-2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection and gas limitation, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Industry Chain: Domestic nitric acid price declined slightly in July, the market price was 1756.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the price declined 2.37% in July. Upstream raw material liquid ammonia price fluctuated, and the market price of liquid ammonia was 3276.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month. Maintaining high price trend of upstream raw material brought certain benefits to ammonium nitrate market. Good impact, ammonium nitrate market prices because of the poor market to maintain a low level. Recently, the downstream civil explosion industry has entered the off-season. The demand for ammonium nitrate Market has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased. However, the nitric acid market has risen again, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has remained low.

Industry: Recently, the domestic ammonium nitrate industry has been strictly controlled by the state. Some enterprises have stopped production. The downstream civilian explosion industry has entered the off-season, and the domestic ammonium nitrate market trend has remained volatile.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material liquid ammonia market prices have not changed much, coupled with a slight decline in nitric acid prices, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain volatile in August.